Wheat

Chicago soft red wheat climbed for a second straight session, with Dec ’25 CBOT settling at $5.43½/bu, up 9½¢ on Monday. Strength drew support from chatter that China is sounding out U.S. wheat for Dec–Feb loadings, steadier European cues, and ongoing dryness pockets in key U.S. belts even as autumn fieldwork stays on track. Export inspections reinforced the tone, with U.S. wheat shipments at 350,293 MT for the week of Oct 30, up 30% from the prior week and 61% year on year.

Corn

Corn futures firmed, with Dec ’25 closing at $4.34¼/bu, +2¾¢. Weekly export inspections printed 1.669 MMT, up 34% week on week and more than double last year’s pace, while private estimates nudged U.S. yield ideas to the high-180s bpa ahead of USDA’s November update. Brazil’s AgRural put first-crop corn 60% planted, a touch ahead of last year, and Brazil’s domestic market stayed supported as sellers prioritized fieldwork and leaned toward later-period sales.

Soybeans

Soybeans outperformed, with Nov ’25 settling at $11.19¾/bu, +20¢ on the day. Futures extended gains after the U.S. said China will halt retaliatory tariffs and step up purchases to at least 12 MMT this year and 25 MMT annually over the next three years, even as a 13% residual duty preserves Brazil’s competitiveness. U.S. inspections slowed to 965,063 MT for the week, but meal strength and South American planting lags kept the complex bid.

China–U.S. détente set the market’s center of gravity. A White House fact sheet detailed a pause on newly announced retaliatory tariffs and specified soybean purchase volumes, igniting hopes that ag trade normalizes. Traders are watching for inspection flows that confirm China as destination and whether tariff thaw language for wheat translates into early-winter U.S. sales.

China’s return to the U.S. wheat desk after a year-long absence is a fresh demand signal. Weekend inquiries for Dec–Feb shipments emerged after Beijing and Washington flagged broader agricultural openings, including removal of added wheat duties. Even modest U.S. volumes could reverberate through spreads given China’s softer total wheat imports this year and ongoing domestic price support.

Russia’s non-GMO soybean lane into China remains intact despite the truce. Moscow projects a ~9 MMT soybean crop with up to 1 MMT exports, including ≤0.8 MMT non-GMO beans to China—product that serves a different end-use than U.S. GMO feed beans. Russia also continues to seek access for winter wheat into China and reported ~10% year-over-year growth in ag exports to China in Jan–Sep.

Black Sea pricing stayed firm yet disciplined. Russian 12.5% FOB held near $230–233/MT for early-December slots as exporter margins swung back to positive. October wheat exports were tallied around 5.1–5.8 MMT, and analysts expect active November loadings with weather not yet a blocking factor—keeping global wheat price floors under close watch into winter.

Vegetable oils shifted the crush math. Malaysia’s palm inventories likely rose to a two-year high in October as output reached a seven-year peak and exports edged only slightly higher; Indonesia’s Jan–Sep palm exports were up 11.62% year on year. The palm/soy oil ratio leaned against soyoil even as soymeal strength buoyed overall crush margins, a cross-current that can sway CBOT board-spreads day to day.

South American fundamentals were mixed. In Brazil, sellers remained scarce as they focused on fieldwork; domestic corn prices stayed firm on high export parity, while soy export premiums eased on U.S.–China headlines even as spot values held with sellers favoring forward batches. In Argentina, moisture supported corn and sunflower establishment, though persistent rains lifted wheat disease pressure; soybean planting is set to accelerate this month.

Data watch sharpened into mid-month. USDA confirmed Nov 14 for Crop Production and WASDE, the first full U.S. corn/soy update since September. A Bloomberg survey pegs September soybean crush at ~203.6 mbu (+9.2% y/y), soyoil stocks near 1.7 bln lbs, and corn for ethanol down ~2% y/y. Separately, China’s rapeseed-meal futures posted their biggest one-day rise in nearly three months amid unresolved canola tariff tensions with Canada.

Weather stayed price-relevant. North America stays unusually warm with limited precipitation, supporting harvest efficiency but leaving the Delta’s Mississippi River vulnerable to renewed low-water constraints later in November. South America trends wetter—cool, rainy Pampas and flood risk in south/southeast Center-West Brazil—while Europe skews warm with below-average Central European rainfall. Typhoon Kalmaegi tracks from the Philippines toward a final landfall in southern Vietnam.

Security policy in China’s ag space added a nuanced headwind. The Ministry of State Security warned of growing foreign efforts to obtain crop genetics and seed resources, a reminder that Beijing frames food security as national security—signals that can shape approval timelines and import regimes for soy, corn, and wheat seeds and traits.