Wheat — Dec ’25 CBOT $5.00¼/bu at the start of Wednesday’s trade. Early tone softened after Tuesday’s firm close as the complex digested mixed export cues: EU soft-wheat shipments since July 1 are running below last year, yet fresh Asian demand is flickering with South Korea tendering and reports of Russian wheat moving back into Indonesia. U.S. inspections showed 444,138 MT last week, led by Indonesia, Japan and Mexico; open interest rose, hinting at new length even as global harvest and planting headlines cap enthusiasm.
Corn — Dec ’25 CBOT $4.13/bu at the start of Wednesday’s trade. Price action opened steady-to-softer as harvest pressure and farmer selling met supportive export and Brazil news. U.S. inspections printed 1.129 MMT with Mexico the top taker; ANEC lifted Brazil’s October corn export idea to 6.46 MMT and CONAB nudged its 2025/26 crop to 138.6 MMT. A Taiwan purchase and South Korean tenders added demand color, but the advancing U.S. harvest kept rallies in check.
Soybeans — Nov ’25 CBOT $10.06½/bu at the start of Wednesday’s trade. Beans edged lower out of the gate as China’s pause on U.S. purchases continued to mute upside despite calmer weekend rhetoric. Traders eyed today’s NOPA crush (street ~186.3 mbu) while Brazil’s fast start—soy planting at 14%—and talk of spot replanting after early dryness kept forward supply comfortable. U.S. inspections were 994,008 MT, with Mexico, Spain and Bangladesh notable.
Global market drivers
Washington–Beijing trade friction resurfaced in veg-oils after President Trump said he is weighing steps to “terminate” some business with China tied to cooking oil, even as U.S. imports of China’s used-cooking-oil have already plunged 65% YTD on changed tax/tariff regimes. The statement stoked headline risk but traders called the near-term impact “minimal” given flows were already shrinking; the larger story remains China’s pivot away from U.S. soybeans toward Brazil and Argentina.
Harvest momentum in the U.S. stayed supportive for supply. Analyst surveys peg corn ~45% and soybeans ~60% harvested for the week ended Oct 12, with USDA Crop Progress still suspended during the shutdown. The combination of steady fieldwork and cooperative October weather keeps a lid on sharp rallies as new-crop grain and oilseeds move into pipelines.
Brazil’s supply engine is humming. CONAB sees 2025/26 soybeans at 177.6 MMT and corn at 138.6 MMT, while ANEC raised October export ideas to 7.31 MMT soy, 2.06 MMT soymeal, and 6.46 MMT corn. Field chatter flags isolated soy replanting where first rains were followed by dryness, but advisors suggest yield impact may be limited if moisture normalizes—keeping the broader supply narrative robust.
India shifted its edible-oil mix. September palm oil imports fell 16.3% m/m to 829k t while soyoil jumped 36.8% to 503k t (highest since July 2022) and sunflower oil rose to a 9-month high. The pivot leans bullish U.S. soyoil and may weigh on Malaysian palm futures, especially if October palm arrivals slide toward ~600k t as trade sources suggest.
Weather remained a macro lever rather than a roadblock. Showers across the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest could slow some harvest runs, but overall North American warmth into late October and improving South American moisture profiles favor fieldwork. Australia’s fronts aid wheat/rapeseed development, while South Africa’s drier window supports maize plantings; teleconnections point to a negative IOD persisting into winter, implying mild risks for North America and Asia.
Europe’s trade balance cooled. EU soft-wheat exports are down 23% y/y to 5.5 MMT as of Oct 12, with incomplete French data noted by the Commission; barley exports are up y/y, while corn imports are down 27% y/y. The slower wheat outflow underscores competitive headwinds from the Black Sea and ample domestic availability in several destinations.
Ukraine’s winter sowing lagged last year’s pace. Winter wheat area reached 2.8m ha (-15% y/y) and winter barley 222k ha (-33% y/y) as of Oct 14, while rapeseed was off slightly. Reduced area clouds 2026 grain availability and keeps Black Sea supply risks on traders’ radar heading into winter.
Russia’s export signals were mixed but active. The watchdog reported 52,000 t of wheat shipped to Indonesia this month after lab accreditation was extended, aligning with signs of continuing demand in Asia even as broader seaborne volumes this season have run below last year. Tender activity in MENA and East Asia remains a key barometer for pricing into Q4.