Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat for Dec ’25 began Monday softer near $4.95/bu—about 3½¢ under Friday’s $4.98½ close—as trade weighed sluggish EU loadings, persistent Black Sea competition and a mostly dry U.S. winter-wheat belt that aids stand establishment but dulls rally potential. New selling interest appeared late last week with SRW open interest up 14,668 contracts, while HRW eased and Minneapolis spring modestly outperformed into the prior close. Near term, U.S. planting should press ahead under a drier seven-day outlook, even as Russia’s Siberian yield strength nudged that country’s 2025 wheat crop idea to 87.8 MMT.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn opened close to $4.13¼/bu, fractionally firmer from Friday’s $4.13 settle as outside markets steadied and harvest weather stayed largely cooperative across much of the Midwest. The market still digests last week’s pressure and net new selling—open interest up 22,267 contracts—while cash corn averages near $3.72 and the October futures average around $4.19 continues to frame U.S. crop-insurance discovery. Weather models point to showers that could slow Eastern Corn Belt work later this week; abroad, Argentina’s corn is 26% planted and Brazil’s center-south first-crop progress sits near the mid-40s.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 soybeans started Monday a touch higher around $10.09¾/bu after a $10.06¾ close, with early strength tied to steadier veg-oils and Brazil weather optimism following two drier weeks. The month-to-date futures average near $10.19 continues to guide crop-insurance pricing even as Friday’s tariff noise briefly pressured the board. China’s September soybean imports surged to 12.87 MMT—second-highest on record—powered by Brazil and new Argentine purchases, underscoring South America’s grip on U.S. gulf demand into Q4.

Global Market Drivers

China’s oilseed pull remained the headline. Customs data showed September soybean imports at 12.87 MMT, up 13% y/y and 4.8% m/m, taking Jan–Sep to 86.18 MMT (+5.3% y/y) as crushers leaned heavily on Brazil and stepped up Argentine buys during its tax holiday. The U.S. has yet to see fresh autumn cargoes, keeping Gulf basis and nearby spreads sensitive to any policy-driven shift as U.S.–China rhetoric oscillates ahead of APEC.

Macro risk around U.S.–China relations widened. A Goldman Sachs note flagged a broader range of outcomes—from lower tariffs and eased export controls to renewed restrictions—before expected leader-level talks, cautioning that either direction could quickly ripple through ag trade flows and price sentiment. Markets will watch for White House signals and any update on a potential Xi–U.S. meeting.

Russia’s wheat narrative stayed mixed. Consultancy updates lifted the 2025 crop to 87.8 MMT on record Siberian yields, yet early-season exports lagged—July–September shipments roughly a third below last year amid weaker southern yields, state duties and added vessel checks—softening FOB momentum even as prices at Novorossiysk edged up to ~$225/t. Policy fine-tuning to spur sales remains a watch-item as Black Sea competition and Southern Hemisphere harvests loom.

Ukraine’s balance sheet shifted on both grains and veg-oils. APK-Inform raised 2025/26 grain output and export ideas to 59.1 MMT and 43.5 MMT respectively on better wheat, but cut sunflower seed to 12.5 MMT and sun-oil to 5.36 MMT after adverse weather in southern regions. The contrasting signals recalibrate Black Sea wheat availability upward while tightening the veg-oil side, with corridor pace still slower than last year.

South America set the fieldwork tone. Brazil’s wet-season rains “switched on” across central states, stabilizing early soybean stands after a 17–21 day dry patch, while consistent fronts supported establishment in the south; national soy planting estimates ranged from ~8–12% by early October and were running well ahead of last year, with corn first-crop progress solid despite localized delays. Argentine soils remained amply moist after a weekend front, keeping early corn favorable even with La Niña risks on the horizon.

Palm-oil cross-currents fed veg-oil volatility. Malaysian futures slipped 48 ringgit overnight as the market weighed hefty September stock levels against Indonesia’s medium-term B50 mandate path, tugging on soyoil-palm spreads and, by extension, soybean board leadership. Chinese veg-oil futures were mixed, adding to a choppy tone for crush margins.

Logistics and weather framed U.S. flows. Northern Plains showers—and even some Montana snow—threatened to slow harvest into midweek, while the Midwest stayed mostly workable before a stalled front brings showers to the northwest and pushes east next weekend. In the Delta, dryness returned and Mississippi River support from last week’s Ohio Valley rains looks brief, keeping barge drafts and freight premia in focus.

Latin America’s export machine kept pressure on U.S. offers. Brazil’s September corn exports hit 7.56 MMT and soymeal shipments climbed to their highest September since 2002; local spot beans and premiums firmed as sellers focused on planting and anticipated sustained Chinese demand into Q4. Domestic CEPEA indices for soy and corn ticked higher week-on-week, aided by a firmer BRL/USD and active ports.

India added a policy kicker. New Delhi launched programs totaling roughly $4 billion to lift farm productivity, expand irrigation and reduce pulse import dependence—measures that could reshape South Asian feed and food balances over time and alter substitution flows into wheat and corn across the region.