Wheat

CBOT soft red wheat Dec ’25 settled at $5.06½/bu, down three-quarters of a cent on the day, as winter wheats “ground lower” while Minneapolis spring firmed slightly into the close. The board weighed a softer EU shipment pace, lingering Black Sea competition, and drier U.S. winter-belt weather that helps establishment but limits rally potential near term.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn closed at $4.18¼/bu, down 3¾¢, with outside pressure from a stronger dollar and softer crude adding drag. Despite favorable late-season U.S. harvest weather, the absence of USDA export-sales data kept traders leaning on private cash prints and surveys, while China’s CASDE trimmed its corn import outlook to 6 MMT even as it left production unchanged.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 soybeans finished at $10.22¼/bu, down 7¼¢, as meal eased and soyoil slipped 54–59 pts despite overnight firmness in palm. Inspections improved week on week but remain well below last year; with November’s MTD futures average around the low-$10.20s guiding crop-insurance discovery, the complex stayed sensitive to Brazil’s near-term rains and U.S. harvest pace.

Global Market Drivers

Logistics set an upbeat tone from Canada: CN Rail moved a record 2.91 MMT of grain from Western Canada in September, +80k above any prior September. The throughput signal reinforces export reliability through Pacific/Atlantic outlets as harvest winds down, underpinning nearby flow confidence.

Argentina lifted its 2025/26 wheat forecast to 23 MMT (from 20), tying the all-time high on better moisture and yields, while holding corn at a record 61 MMT and soybeans at 47 MMT. Corn planting is 28% complete and soybean seeding is slated for the second half of October—an export-competitive mix as Southern Cone supplies build.

Russia’s floating “damper” cut the wheat export duty ~20% to 493.4 RUB/t for Oct 8–14, with corn lowered and barley at zero. With ~130 MMT of grain already harvested and a 135 MMT target, FOB availability stays heavy, pressuring rival offers; around the region, Kazakhstan reported 22.7 MMT threshed from 89.3% of the grain area, adding Central Eurasian tonnage to the mix.

Biofuel headlines leaned supportive for veg-oils. Indonesia confirmed B50 implementation in H2 2026 after completing the fourth testing round, tightening future palm availability domestically and lending cross-support to soyoil. Overnight, Malaysian palm oil rose +48 ringgit (~1.06%), echoing that firmer tone into the oilseed complex.

Brazil’s export engine stayed in high gear. ANEC projects October soy exports at 7.12 MMT (vs 4.44 MMT last year), corn at 6.0 MMT, and soymeal near 1.92 MMT—a lineup that keeps pressure on U.S. offers into Q4 even as Chicago holds a cautious bid.

China’s corn picture was mixed. CASDE flagged heavy rains in parts of the belt (e.g., Henan) that risk waterlogging and lodging during harvest, while keeping 2025/26 corn/soy/edible-oil balances unchanged; elsewhere in North China/Northeast, moisture and temperatures have been broadly supportive for yields.

Weather and rivers shaped U.S. flows. Warm, mostly dry conditions aided harvest across much of the Midwest/Plains, while earlier Ohio Valley rains briefly lifted Mississippi River levels—helpful for barge drafts but likely short-lived—before another front eyes the Northern Plains with rain and localized snow into the weekend.

Energy cues underpinned corn grind. DOE/EIA reported ethanol output at 1.071m bpd (above survey), stocks at 22.72m bbl (-0.2% w/w) and exports at 138k bpd, a constructive backdrop when paired with cooperative harvest weather—keeping processors active and basis orderly into mid-October.