Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat for Dec ’25 opened Wednesday fractionally higher, near $5.07¼/bu—about +½¢ from Tuesday’s $5.06¾ close—as early bids followed a quiet overnight tape and modest short covering. The complex still contends with soft EU shipment pace and mixed Black Sea signals heading into mid-October weather windows.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn began essentially unchanged to slightly firmer around $4.21/bu, reflecting a +1¼¢ uptick from Tuesday’s $4.19¾ settle. Traders are focused on mid-week ethanol numbers and river logistics while mapping U.S. harvest progress against Brazil’s export competitiveness.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 soybeans started the day 2–3¢ higher near $10.24½/bu, extending Tuesday’s firm close at $10.22 as strength in soyoil and a rally in palm oil buoyed the complex despite China’s holiday-thinned participation. Forward crush and spreads remain sensitive to Brazil’s near-term rainfall trajectory.

Global Market Drivers

Palm oil jumped as Indonesia advanced its biodiesel program: lab work for B50 is complete and authorities can proceed to road tests, reinforcing expectations for higher domestic draw and tighter export availability into the 2026 mandate horizon. Sentiment was helped by softer Malaysian output and stronger rival soyoil, though slower exports could cap gains. The tighter veg-oil backdrop lends support to soyoil and, by extension, the soybean complex today.

Weather and logistics are shaping U.S. flows. Wet spells in the Northern Plains and parts of the West are delaying corn/soy harvest, while most of the Midwest/Plains stay warm and largely dry—supportive for fieldwork but keeping an eye on fresh fronts into the weekend. In the Delta, recent showers briefly aided Mississippi River levels, but broader declines keep barge capacity and costs in focus.

South America presents a two-speed setup. Brazil’s south turns wetter—favorable for planting and early growth—while central Brazil has been notably dry; models add showers late this week that could mark the true onset of the wet season and stabilize soybean establishment. Argentina maintains good soil moisture for early corn, with another frontal system due, even as a La Niña-tilted season remains a medium-term risk to yields.

Crush-chain continuity in Argentina got a reprieve as the government ordered oilseed workers to suspend an indefinite wage strike for a 15-day mandatory conciliation period. The pause reduces immediate disruption risks at processing hubs and steadies near-term meal/oil availability after September’s brief, tax-driven export flurry.

China’s grain trade matrix is shifting. Customs tallies show corn imports from Russia tripled in the first eight months to 287,000 t, vaulting Russia into the top supplier slot this year as Beijing leans on carry-in stocks and trims overall corn imports versus 2024. The re-ranking alters Pacific Basin spreads and underscores how quickly China can redirect origin demand.

Ukraine’s 2025 balance sheets were nudged higher: SovEcon raised wheat to 22.9 MMT and corn to 31.8 MMT on stronger yields, even as early-season exports slowed—wheat 4.7 MMT (vs 6.1 a year ago) and corn 0.9 MMT (vs 2.8). Despite the slow start, export forecasts climbed on crop size, while shipments to China have been zero for corn in recent months as Beijing bought more Ukrainian barley.

Europe’s trade pulse is uneven. EU soft-wheat exports are down 25% y/y to 4.96 MMT through Oct 5 (incomplete French data caveat), while barley exports rose 42% and corn imports fell 30%—a mix that keeps price competition intense versus Black Sea origins into winter tenders.

Black Sea and Australia add opposing wheat pulls. Rusagrotrans sees Russia’s October wheat exports rising to 5.1 MMT (above the 5-yr avg), reinforcing heavy FOB availability, while southeast Australia’s dryness threatens to shave 0.5–1.0 MMT from Victoria/South Australia if rains stay late—tightening the global matrix at the margin even as Russia stays aggressive.

Macro-light, data-sparse U.S. trade watches energy and sentiment. A Bloomberg survey looks for ethanol production to rebound to ~1.036m b/d with stocks near 22.636m bbl, while Purdue/CME’s September farmer sentiment ticked up to 126, split between weaker current conditions and firmer expectations as producers eye costs, prices, and possible income support. In futures, open interest rose across grains on Tuesday, led by corn (+16,797).