Grain Complex: Abundance Pressures Feed Prices, Corn Holds Steady

A surplus of feed grains continues to weigh on prices across the region. Wheat values have slipped in Ukraine as supply pressure builds, while barley remains supported by firm demand for so-called “Chinese quality” shipments. Corn, however, has proven resilient. Despite downward pressure from broad feed availability, Ukrainian and regional corn markets are seasonally quiet but largely stable, with limited volatility for now.

Sunflower Markets: Weak Prices and Harvest Uncertainty

Sunflower seeds remain under pressure. In Serbia, yields are coming in low and prices weak, adding to a bearish tone across the Danube basin. Harvesting has already begun in Black Sea and Danube countries, but crushers in Ukraine warn of a challenging season as early harvest results have disappointed. Deferred demand and expectations of reduced sunflower seed (SFS) production, however, could lend some price support to sunflower oil (SFO) further into the season.

Rapeseed and Oilseeds: Russia Expands Export Dominance

In rapeseed, Polish crush activity is slipping, while Ukraine has reported a harvest above 3 million metric tons, easing immediate supply concerns. On the trade front, Russia continues to consolidate its role as a dominant supplier, emerging as the leading exporter of rapeseed oil to China. Russia is also expanding shipments of oilseed flax and has set an ambitious target to supply 5.5–5.6 million metric tons of sunflower oil in the 2025/26 season. These volumes reinforce Moscow’s pivotal role in global vegetable oil flows, particularly toward Asia.

Weather and Crop Outlook: Risks for Late Crops and Winter Sowing

Unfavorable weather in southern and eastern Ukraine has raised concerns for late-season crops and complicated early sowing of winter grains. The soybean market remains stable, though largely in a holding pattern as participants await the arrival of the new crop. With conditions difficult for both planting and harvesting, weather remains a key watchpoint for supply developments through the autumn.

Market Sentiment

Overall, market sentiment in the Black Sea and Danube region is being shaped by two countervailing forces: surplus grains suppressing prices and oilseeds facing tighter prospects amid uneven harvests and strong Russian exports. Traders and processors are watching closely how deferred demand in sunflower oil and the health of Ukraine’s winter sowing campaign will set the tone for pricing into the final quarter of the year.