Chicago Futures Opening Prices – Thursday, July 10, 2025
Wheat (Sep 2025): $5.47 per bushel
Corn (Sep 2025): $3.99 ¼ per bushel
Soybeans (Aug 2025): $10.09 per bushel
The grain market opened Thursday with wheat slightly up, corn marginally lower, and soybeans under pressure. Unfavorable weather in key regions, shifting trade dynamics, and mixed forecasts continue to shape futures.
Wheat: Resilient Amid Mixed Conditions
Wheat prices are holding steady across major exchanges. The Chicago SRW contract opened at $5.47/bu, showing marginal movement. While KC HRW contracts posted modest overnight gains, rains in the Texas Panhandle may slow harvesting progress. Meanwhile, Strategie Grain’s estimate for EU soft wheat remains unchanged at 130.7 MMT for 2025/26. The USDA's upcoming reports are expected to revise U.S. wheat production slightly downward due to reduced harvested acreage. Despite deteriorating spring crop conditions in the U.S. and severe drought in Russia’s Rostov region, favorable harvest potential in Stavropol and solid winter wheat yields in the U.S. are keeping the wheat outlook relatively balanced.
Corn: Global Uncertainty and Weather Risks
Corn futures started the day at $3.99 ¼ per bushel, slightly below the previous session. The market is closely watching U.S. ethanol data, with production slightly up and stocks down. Weather remains a mixed bag—dryness continues in the U.S. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, while Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest benefits from favorable conditions. CONAB raised Brazil’s second crop estimate, further tightening global competition. China, on the other hand, faces a heatwave across Northeast and North China Plains, threatening corn output despite adequate soil moisture. Export expectations are mixed, with upcoming USDA reports likely to show a slight reduction in U.S. production due to acreage cuts.
Soybeans: Pressured by Brazilian Supply and Weak Demand
Soybean prices opened at $10.09/bu for the August contract, continuing a downward trend. Brazilian output remains high despite CONAB slightly reducing its 2024/25 forecast to 169.48 MMT. Deliveries and open interest point to sustained selling. Export sales are expected to be modest, with limited activity on the new crop. U.S. weather is supportive, with rain forecast for the Central Corn Belt. Still, stocks are expected to rise slightly in USDA’s upcoming report. Overall, the market faces downward pressure due to increased Brazilian availability, weaker export demand, and ongoing speculative liquidation.
Key Global Developments Influencing Today’s Market
Drought in China is weighing on summer grain output, but despite a 0.1% drop in wheat production, imports are expected to remain subdued due to large domestic reserves and stable year-over-year planting area. Still, the 80% drop in imports during the first five months of 2025 signals ongoing sluggish demand.
Russia’s wheat outlook is diverging by region. While Rostov, the top-producing area, faces its second consecutive year of severe drought and may see yields drop by 20%, Stavropol is on track for a record harvest. This intra-national variability could still secure Russia’s status as a leading global exporter.
Ukraine projects a 5.5% year-on-year increase in its 2025/26 grain and oilseed harvest, reaching 83 million tons. Corn production could hit 29.3 million tons, with exports forecast to climb to 24 million tons. Wheat output is expected to remain steady at 22.5 million tons. A boost in sunflower and rapeseed crops could also influence oilseed markets globally.
Canada’s wheat production forecast holds at 35 million tons, with recent dryness in Manitoba and Saskatchewan countered by favorable rain outlooks over the next 10 days. Soil moisture remains a key factor for maintaining yield expectations in the Prairies.
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose to an 18-month high in June due to a sharp export decline. While domestic consumption spiked, the market was surprised by the scale of the export dip. This could weigh on vegetable oil prices, including soy oil, in the short term. However, early July exports show a 12% rise, potentially cushioning the bearish tone.
U.S. ethanol production rose slightly to 1.085 million barrels/day, while stocks dipped 0.7%. Although minor, these shifts contribute to the overall corn demand narrative amid sluggish exports and weather-dependent yield concerns.
In Kansas, corn leafhopper presence was confirmed in Reno County for the first time in 2025. While not all leafhoppers are harmful, this species can efficiently transmit corn stunt disease. There is no economic threshold, and growers are advised to apply insecticides upon detection—raising costs and operational complexity.