Chicago futures closed Wednesday on a mixed note, as harvest data, trade policies, and competitive export moves shaped trading sentiment. The focus remains on Russia’s aggressive wheat strategy, shifting soybean trade routes, and corn logistics challenges.

Wheat

Wheat futures closed the session lower again on Wednesday. The September 2025 CBOT wheat contract ended at $5.43 ½ per bushel, down 4 ¼ cents. Pressure remains from weak export demand, intensified Black Sea competition, and stable U.S. crop ratings. The U.S. winter wheat harvest reached 63%, outpacing the five-year average. Russia’s zero export duty for July 9–15 and an updated export estimate of 42.9 million tons continue to weigh on prices globally. Meanwhile, EU exports slowed considerably, and Ukrainian wheat flows are being diverted toward Asian and African markets due to European quota restrictions.

Corn

Corn contracts reversed slightly after breaching the $4.00 mark earlier this week. The September 2025 CBOT corn contract closed at $3.98 ¾ per bushel, up ¾ cent. U.S. crop conditions remained at 74% good/excellent, while progress indicators showed 18% silking and 3% in dough stage. Global competition persists as Ukraine estimates corn exports for 2025/26 at 24 MMT, and Brazil maintains its bullish production outlook at 128.3 MMT. However, congestion at Brazilian ports and easing Chinese demand could limit export flows. In the U.S., national average corn cash prices are down to $3.84.

Soybeans

Soybeans settled in negative territory. The August 2025 CBOT contract finished at $10.20 ¾ per bushel, slipping ½ cent. U.S. crop conditions remain at 66% good/excellent, with 32% of the crop blooming and 8% setting pods. Despite favorable field progress, the market remains under pressure due to Argentina’s shifting planting intentions—favoring corn over soy due to export tax burdens. EU imports have risen to 14.52 MMT, highlighting sustained demand, while trade flows continue to adapt following Argentina’s partial return to the Chinese soymeal market.

Global Market Developments – Key Highlights

Russia’s decision to set its wheat export tax to zero rubles/ton for the second week of July has ignited a more aggressive export push. With only 1.2 million tons shipped in June—a 71% drop year-over-year—Moscow is attempting to reclaim lost share, especially as tight domestic stocks and strong competition from Ukraine, the EU, and Argentina limit flexibility.

Ukrainian wheat exports are now projected at 15.7 million tons for 2024/25, down 15% from last year. EU trade quotas capping imports at 1.3 million tons annually are forcing Kyiv to shift its market strategy toward North Africa and Asia, reshaping flows across the Black Sea.

In the Americas, Argentina’s wheat exports jumped 31% year-over-year, bolstered by a temporary tax break valid until March 2026. At the same time, Brazilian grain logistics are facing challenges: while the country boasts a massive 128.3 MMT corn crop, port congestion and fewer Chinese orders are slowing outbound shipments.

In the U.S., regulatory pressures are rising. Tighter immigration enforcement may disrupt seasonal farm labor availability, potentially delaying harvests. Simultaneously, the USDA’s new rules to limit foreign farmland ownership—primarily targeting Chinese investors—are adding new risks to land markets and rural investment patterns.

Severe drought continues to restrict grain shipping on the Rhine River. Despite recent rains, low water levels mean barges are operating below capacity, pushing up freight costs and delaying deliveries of grains and other bulk goods. Western Europe’s logistics face ongoing constraints without significant rainfall relief.

Finally, the CME’s mini urea futures contract, launched this week, aims to help smaller agricultural players manage fertilizer price volatility. These new instruments reflect the growing need for flexible hedging tools amid unpredictable input costs and a complex global supply chain.