Futures for wheat, corn, and soybeans opened Wednesday on a cautious note as weather patterns and geopolitical shifts continued to weigh on agricultural markets. Meanwhile, Russia’s unprecedented removal of its wheat export tax for the week of July 9–15 signals a strategic shift amid mounting export challenges.

Wheat

Chicago wheat futures for September 2025 opened Wednesday at $5.47 ¾ per bushel, down ¾ cent from the previous close. The downward momentum reflects continued pressure from global competition and modest demand. The U.S. winter wheat harvest reached 53%, slightly trailing the five-year average, while crop conditions remained steady at 48% good-to-excellent. Spring wheat, on the other hand, saw a drop in quality, especially in Minnesota and North Dakota, with overall conditions slipping 3%. Globally, EU exports dropped significantly to 20.33 MMT, compared to 31.07 MMT last year, while Russia boosted its 2025–26 wheat export estimate to 42.9 MMT. This adjustment, alongside Russia’s temporary zero export tax, signals an effort to regain competitiveness despite tight domestic inventories.

Corn

September 2025 corn futures opened at $3.98 per bushel, down 5 ½ cents from Tuesday’s close. The market was weighed down by improved crop conditions in key U.S. states like Kansas and Iowa, where favorable weather patterns are benefiting pollination. Nationwide, 18% of the corn crop has begun silking, with 3% already in the dough stage. The national average cash corn price declined to $3.84. Ukraine’s grain union projects corn production at 29.25 MMT with exports up to 24 MMT for the 2025–26 season. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn outlook remains robust at 128.3 MMT, but port congestion and shifting Chinese demand could constrain exports despite a large surplus.

Soybeans

August 2025 soybean futures opened at $10.21 ¼ per bushel, down 10 ¼ cents from Tuesday. U.S. soybean conditions remain steady, with 32% of the crop blooming and 8% setting pods. The Brugler500 index ticked up slightly to 369. In the EU, soybean imports reached 14.52 MMT—well above last year’s volume. Meanwhile, Argentine farmers are leaning toward planting more corn due to soybean taxes and lower price margins. Despite expectations for strong yields, the higher tax burden (now back to 33% on soybeans) could limit Argentina’s competitiveness in processed soy markets globally.

Key Global Market Influences

Russia cut its wheat export tax to zero for July 9–15, the first time since 2021. June exports dropped 71% year-on-year to 1.2 MMT, but early July shipments already total 1.4 MMT. SovEcon raised its 2025–26 export forecast to 42.9 MMT.

Ukrainian wheat exports fell 15% to 15.7 MMT in 2024/25. The EU’s new import cap of 1.3 MMT per year will shift flows toward North Africa and Asia.

U.S. wheat exports reached 1.8 MMT year-to-date, with 436,628 tons shipped in the last week. USDA projects 22 MMT in exports for 2025–26.

Canada is set to export 27 MMT this year. Argentina targets 13 MMT in 2025–26, supported by tax relief and a 31% year-on-year increase.

Australia’s exports remain moderate, projected at 22.5 MMT in 2024/25, as Chinese demand softens.

Brazil expects 128.3 MMT of corn production but may face export bottlenecks due to port congestion and shifting Chinese demand. StoneX estimates 42 MMT in corn exports.

Argentine farmers are shifting toward corn due to lower taxes (12%) versus soy (33%), aiming to increase corn acreage in 2025–26.

U.S. labor shortages may arise from new immigration policies targeting undocumented workers, risking delays in harvest and logistics.

New USDA rules seek to limit farmland purchases by foreign entities, notably China, adding uncertainty in the Midwest.

Low water levels on the Rhine continue to disrupt grain transport in Western Europe, increasing freight costs.

CME’s launch of mini urea futures provides small-to-medium farmers new hedging tools to manage fertilizer price risks.