Wheat markets closed mixed on Wednesday, with Chicago soft red winter futures leading the gains, up 2¼ cents to settle at $5.07¼ per bushel for the September 2025 contract. Kansas City hard red winter wheat slipped 2 to 4 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat saw a narrow, mixed finish. Gains in Chicago were supported by competitive U.S. export pricing, with traders eyeing USDA’s upcoming export sales data, expected between 400,000 and 850,000 metric tons for 2025/26. International interest was underscored by South Korea’s purchase of 50,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat.

Corn futures regained ground on Wednesday after Tuesday’s losses, with the September 2025 contract closing 2½ cents higher at $3.74 per bushel. Support came from stronger ethanol production data, with output rising to 1.093 million barrels per day in the week ending August 8—the highest since late July—and stocks falling sharply to their lowest since December. U.S. cash corn prices also firmed, while South Korean importers booked a combined 266,000 metric tons in overnight tenders. In South America, the Rosario Grains Exchange projected Argentina’s main-region corn planting area to rise by 15–20% for 2025/26.

Soybean futures extended their rally into Wednesday’s close, with September 2025 contracts climbing 11¼ cents to $10.24 per bushel. National average cash soybean prices rose to $9.82, supported by stronger soymeal and soyoil gains. Export sales expectations for Thursday’s USDA report range from 200,000 to 700,000 metric tons for old crop beans and 400,000 to 900,000 metric tons for new crop. The rally comes despite lingering pressure from U.S.–China trade tensions, as Chinese buyers continue sourcing heavily from Brazil.

The Zambian Cabinet approved the export of over 500,000 tons of surplus corn to southern African markets, following a 2024–25 harvest of 3.7 million tons. This decision adds fresh supply to the regional trade balance and may influence South African and Zimbabwean import demand in the coming months.

In the Black Sea region, Russia’s 2025–26 wheat production forecast was raised to 85.2 million tons by SovEcon, up from July’s 83.6 million, on better acreage and yield prospects. While higher output could weigh on global prices, the southern region’s historically low crop remains a limiting factor. Meanwhile, drought stress continues to impact parts of Ukraine, prompting the national farm union to cut its sunflower crop estimate to 14 million tons from 16 million, though corn output is expected to reach 28 million tons, above last year’s 26 million.

Brazil’s grain export outlook remains strong, with August soybean shipments forecast at 8.8 million tons, soymeal at 2.27 million tons, and corn at 7.97 million tons, all up from last week’s estimates. These robust flows are keeping Brazil dominant in key Asian markets and intensifying competition for U.S. exporters.

The European Union’s soft wheat exports for the 2024/25 season through August 10 totaled 1.43 million tons, down 56% from last year’s pace, with Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Algeria as leading destinations. Barley exports slipped 4% year-on-year, and corn imports fell sharply by 66%, reflecting lower feed demand and tighter global supply.

Malaysia increased its crude palm oil export tax to the maximum 10% for September after setting the gazetted price at 4,053.43 ringgit per ton. This move comes amid rising palm oil prices and could shift competitiveness in the vegetable oil market, indirectly influencing soyoil demand.

In weather developments, the U.S. Midwest is receiving beneficial rainfall for corn and soybean filling, though flooding in parts of Missouri and Wisconsin poses risks. The Northern Plains are expected to see continued showers that may help oilseed and grain crops but could hamper wheat harvest quality. Heat risks persist across Europe, while the Black Sea remains largely dry. In South America, heavy rains in Argentina’s Pampas contrast with dry, hot conditions in Brazil.

The U.S. soybean export landscape remains clouded by Chinese buyers’ preference for Brazilian supply. For September shipments, China has booked 8 million tons exclusively from South America, and for October, 4 million tons—half of projected needs—also from the same origin. This could leave U.S. exporters with limited access to their most critical seasonal sales window unless trade negotiations shift.