Wheat futures ended the day on a softer note, with the July 2025 CBOT contract settling at $5.38¾ per bushel, down 2½ cents from the previous close. The Chicago wheat market saw limited movement during the session as attention turned to harvest delays in the Southern Plains caused by increased rainfall forecasts. Despite these potential setbacks, improved crop quality prospects lent partial support. However, bearish sentiment was reinforced by declining European milling wheat prices and Black Sea competitiveness. Traders also noted Egypt’s increasing interest in diversifying wheat imports beyond the traditional Russian-Ukrainian corridor, which may reshape regional trade dynamics.

Corn prices also closed modestly lower, with the July 2025 contract finishing at $4.36½ per bushel, a decrease of 1¼ cents. The market responded cautiously to mixed signals—strong ethanol data earlier in the week offered underlying support, but expanding Brazilian supply and export competitiveness continued to apply downward pressure. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remained a persistent concern, with wet conditions in key regions slowing planting progress and crop establishment. Meanwhile, Brazil’s ANEC revised June corn export forecasts down slightly, which may ease near-term export competition for the U.S.

Soybeans closed Thursday with marginal losses. The July 2025 CBOT contract settled at $10.41 per bushel, slipping 2¼ cents. Drier planting conditions in the U.S. Midwest offered moderate support early in the session, particularly in Iowa and Nebraska. However, the mixed performance of soymeal and soyoil weighed on overall futures momentum. Brazilian June soybean export expectations remained at 12.55 MMT, slightly below last year’s volume, but strong enough to maintain international competition, thereby limiting upside potential for U.S. contracts.

As the broader global grain complex absorbed these movements, several key headlines continued to guide sentiment:

In the U.S., farmer confidence remains robust. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Barometer reached a high of 158 in May, driven by steady progress in planting and resilient price conditions. Both short-term sentiment and long-term expectations showed improvement, suggesting optimism among agricultural producers as the season unfolds.

Weather forecasts offered a varied outlook across North America. Cooler temperatures and added rainfall in the Northern and Central Plains are likely to benefit crop development, while the Canadian Prairies face escalating drought risks. Excess moisture in southern parts of the Midwest continues to hamper fieldwork and plant establishment.

Argentina’s Pampas region saw continued dryness and cold, with recent frost episodes slowing winter wheat growth. Meanwhile, Brazil experienced scattered rainfall in the southern safrinha corn belt, with most of the second corn harvest already underway. However, wheat-producing zones remain dry, prompting concerns over early-season growth potential.

Ukrainian grain exports in May reached 4.04 million tons, mostly via Black Sea ports. Corn output remains projected at 28.2 MMT, but concerns over summer droughts could dampen final yields. Additionally, the looming reduction of EU duty-free quotas starting in June 2025 is raising fears of declining export demand for Ukrainian grain.

Earlier in the week, U.S. ethanol production climbed to 1.105 million barrels per day, aligning with March highs. Exports reached 150,000 bpd—the strongest in two months. Despite slight increases in inventories, robust domestic and global demand is providing support to corn-based biofuels.

Malaysia's palm oil stocks are forecast to have grown by 7.74% in May, reaching 2.01 MMT—the highest since last September. This increase stems from higher domestic production and a rise in cheaper Indonesian imports, despite firm external demand. The developments in palm oil markets are also influencing pricing trends in the soy oil complex.

China’s rapeseed meal market is seeing price pressure amid warming trade relations with Canada. Easing tensions could stabilize import flows and strengthen feedstock availability for China’s livestock sector, following a turbulent period marked by trade retaliation.

In a parallel move, China authorized imports of coarse ground wheat and rye flour from Russia, expanding its supply base while strategically reducing reliance on Western nations. This policy shift is part of a broader effort to safeguard food security amid evolving geopolitical challenges.

Russia moved to reinforce its grain export competitiveness by cutting wheat export duties by 25% to 1,023.5 rubles per ton. Barley duties were eliminated, and corn duties were reduced. These adjustments aim to support Russian exports as international grain prices soften and competition intensifies.

Brazil remains central to the global corn supply narrative. The country is expected to export 41.5 MMT in the 2024/25 cycle, with a significant portion moving in late June. This surge could challenge U.S. export competitiveness, while Argentina’s weather-induced output reduction continues to limit its shipping activity.

Ukrainian corn prices edged lower in May, though total exports climbed 18% month-over-month. Since July, Ukraine has shipped over 20.6 MMT of corn, including 17.5 MMT since October. However, a pending reduction in EU quota allowances may threaten export momentum going forward.

Morocco's grain dependency remains stark. Over the past year, the country imported 6.05 MMT of wheat—primarily from France and Russia—and also increased corn imports. These patterns underscore Morocco’s vulnerability to poor domestic harvests and unpredictable global supply chains.

Finally, long-range weather models now point to an increased chance of La Niña forming by autumn. If realized, Argentina may face drier conditions that threaten winter wheat development, while parts of Western Europe could see excessive rainfall and delayed harvests. Simultaneously, warmer Northern Hemisphere temperatures may mitigate early frost risks, creating complex cross-continental implications for crop planning and trade.

In sum, Thursday's market session closed with more questions than answers, as participants brace for another round of unpredictable movements led by weather, export flows, and geopolitical recalibrations.