Crop Opening Recap – Wheat, Corn, Soybeans (July 2025 contracts, Chicago)

Wheat

Wheat markets began Wednesday with slight gains after a volatile Tuesday close. July 2025 Chicago SRW wheat opened at $5.31 3/4 per bushel, rebounding by 3 1/4 cents from the previous day’s close of $5.28 1/2. The wheat complex had dropped sharply on Tuesday, weighed down by weaker-than-expected crop condition reports. U.S. winter wheat conditions declined to 50% good/excellent, while initial ratings for spring wheat came in at just 45%—the weakest start since 1988. Despite this, weekly export inspections were strong at 561,980 MT, up over 30% from the prior week. The modest Wednesday recovery suggests some stabilization amid ongoing weather and supply risks.

Corn

Corn opened Wednesday at $4.61 per bushel for the July 2025 contract, a gain of 1 1/2 cents from Tuesday’s unchanged close at $4.59 1/2. U.S. planting progress reached 87%, slightly ahead of the five-year average, with 68% of the crop rated good/excellent. However, this figure was below trader expectations and contributed to cautious sentiment. Export inspections were relatively healthy at 1.396 MMT, though down from the prior week. Brazil’s second corn crop continues to lag, with just 0.9% harvested in major growing states. Markets remain reactive to wheat volatility and broader weather concerns.

Soybeans

Soybean futures began Wednesday with a slight dip, opening at $10.60 per bushel for July 2025, down 2 1/2 cents from Tuesday’s close of $10.62 1/2. The market had firmed the previous day on cash strength and continued planting momentum—now at 76%, above the seasonal average. Soymeal and soyoil prices were mixed, with minor gains in oil supporting the complex. Weekly export inspections were underwhelming at 194,904 MT, down over 12% week-on-week. Despite this, optimism persists around biodiesel demand and resilient domestic crush margins.

Key Global Developments Impacting the Market

Brazil has reported fresh bird flu cases in wild birds and is investigating a new potential case on a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul. While the government downplayed the commercial threat, any escalation could impact global poultry trade and feed demand. Brazil remains the world’s largest chicken exporter.

In the futures market, wheat showed slight overnight strength after steep Tuesday losses. Corn was modestly firmer, while soybeans softened slightly. Malaysian palm oil gained 0.8%, potentially lending minor support to soyoil markets.

Weather forecasts remain a central focus. North America is facing a cooling trend followed by possible heavy rains in the 6–10 day range. Argentina expects below-normal temperatures for the week, while dryness threatens the North China Plain. Warm conditions are projected for the Black Sea region.

USDA inspection data from May 22 showed 1.396 million tons of corn inspected for export, 195k of soybeans, and 562k of wheat. Japan, Egypt, and South Korea were top destinations. Compared to last year, corn and wheat exports are significantly ahead, while soybeans remain steady.

Brazil’s May soybean export forecast was revised slightly downward by Anec to 14.03 MMT. Soymeal exports are also projected lower at 2.21 MMT. Although still robust, these revisions reflect softening global demand and logistical constraints.

EU soft-wheat exports have declined by 34% year-on-year as of May 25, totaling 18.8 million tons. Morocco, Nigeria, and Algeria remain key buyers. The EU’s barley exports also fell, while corn imports grew by 7%, showing changing trade flows in the bloc.

Germany expects a 13.6% increase in its 2025 wheat crop to 21.01 MMT and a 5.6% increase in rapeseed output. However, these projections are slightly lower than earlier estimates due to spring drought and frost. Barley and corn harvests are forecast to decline due to weather stress.

Russia’s wheat production for 2025/26 has been revised up to 80.6 MMT after beneficial rains in parts of the country. However, the southern and North Caucasian districts remain at risk of drought, and warm, dry conditions could cap further yield potential.

In Australia, wheat acreage is expected to hold steady while barley plantings rise and canola falls. Dry conditions in South Australia and Victoria remain a concern, though analysts project a wheat harvest above the 10-year average at 30.3 MMT. High fertilizer costs and weak wheat prices are pushing farmers toward feed grains and pulses.

China’s soymeal market faces intense volatility, with potential for sharp price swings during the June–July period. Analysts cite fragility in logistics and supply chains, alongside global crop risk, as key drivers of uncertainty. A smoother import cycle could pressure prices, but Argentina’s crop and U.S. weather remain bullish factors.

South Africa’s crop body trimmed its 2025 corn output forecast by 0.1%, now expecting 14.6 MMT. While this is still 14% above last year, white corn output has been cut by 1.4%. Soybean production remains unchanged at 2.3 MMT.

India reaffirmed expectations for ample monsoon rains following an early onset. The Indian Meteorological Department forecast rainfall at 106% of the long-period average, with no signs of El Niño interference. Optimism for strong crop yields could ease inflation and support food security. This may also lead to potential export policy shifts on key commodities like wheat and sugar.

China’s wheat belt is expected to benefit from upcoming rainfall that could ease drought, though ongoing heat stress remains a concern. As a precaution, China has ramped up wheat imports from Australia and Canada ahead of its harvest period.

Across the globe, weather anomalies continue to drive market sentiment. While some regions like the U.S. Northern Plains and parts of Russia have seen moisture recovery, areas like France, Germany, and Australia still face rainfall deficits. These evolving dynamics underscore the fragile balance in global grain production heading into the summer.