Wheat

Wheat futures tumbled on Tuesday amid disappointing crop conditions and a sell-off driven by technical weakness. July 2025 Chicago SRW wheat closed at $5.28 1/2, down 14 cents. Kansas City HRW wheat lost 14–15 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat declined 10–12 cents. Despite strong weekly export inspections (561,980 MT, up 30% from the week before), the U.S. winter wheat crop condition fell to 50% good/excellent, and spring wheat conditions started at just 45% G/E—marking the poorest opening rating since 1988. This added bearish weight as traders digested the 75% heading progress on winter wheat and the underwhelming start for spring wheat.

Corn

Corn futures ended Tuesday flat for nearby contracts, with July 2025 holding at $4.59 1/2 per bushel. Although export inspections showed decent weekly figures (1.396 MMT), down 20% from last week but still up year-on-year, bearish pressure from the wheat complex kept gains capped. U.S. crop progress showed corn 87% planted, slightly ahead of average, and the first condition rating came in at 68% good/excellent—below expectations. In Brazil, the second corn crop harvest reached just 0.9% completion in key states like Mato Grosso and Paraná, according to AgRural, trailing last year’s pace.

Soybeans

Soybeans advanced slightly on Tuesday, with July 2025 contracts closing at $10.62 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents. Support stemmed from firming cash markets and continued planting progress—now at 76%—despite export inspections slowing to just 194,904 MT. Domestic demand for soy oil and optimism surrounding biodiesel production helped cushion prices. Market chatter also focused on U.S.–EU tariff discussions, which saw a delay in the proposed tariff deadline, giving room for trade negotiations and lifting sentiment slightly.

Global Highlights – Key Developments Impacting the Market

A major highlight was John Deere’s investment into drone technology through the acquisition of Sentera. The move signifies a step toward autonomous farming, potentially reshaping crop management, yields, and cost efficiencies.

In Argentina, the Rosario Exchange raised its wheat harvest forecast to 21.2 MMT, backed by favorable weather and expanded planting areas. The government also extended tax cuts on wheat exports, potentially boosting export competitiveness.

Brazil’s soybean market saw modest price gains, with increased forward contracting reflecting farmer optimism. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index showed price increases in both Paranaguá and Paraná, while the soymeal market softened amid higher supply from increased processing.

Corn prices in Brazil continued to slide due to expanding harvest availability, although international markets were buoyed by weather volatility, including frost risks in southern Brazil and storm threats in the U.S. Midwest.

Brazil’s corn export volumes remain far below last year’s levels for May, and prices at key ports like Paranaguá dropped 6.2% over the past week.

Soy oil demand in Brazil continues to rise for both food and biodiesel purposes, keeping crush margins favorable despite recent weakness in soymeal prices.

Russian officials voiced confidence in achieving a larger grain harvest this year despite mixed regional weather. Nevertheless, they refrained from firm forecasts due to risks like droughts in Rostov and Krasnodar.

Ukraine's grain exports are lagging, with total shipments down 17% season-to-date. Wheat exports fell 14%, and corn dropped over 21% year-on-year.

India's farmers are switching from soybeans to corn and sugarcane due to better returns. Lower domestic soymeal demand—compounded by competition from DDGS—adds downside pressure to soybean acreage and could increase the country’s edible oil imports.

China's soybean meal imports from Russia surged nearly threefold in the first four months of 2025, as the country diversified suppliers amid rising demand for animal feed.

U.S. cattle and poultry production dipped year-on-year, with pork down 1.8%, poultry down 1.2%, and egg production falling 6.7% in April. These shifts could affect feed grain demand in the coming months.

Bird flu in Brazil is now officially contained to a localized zone, according to WOAH, potentially calming fears of broader market disruptions.

India’s early monsoon arrival, the earliest since 2009, brightens the outlook for summer crops. The positive rainfall pattern could reduce inflation pressure and support broader commodity markets if yields improve as forecasted.

Rainfall in China’s wheat belt is expected to alleviate drought conditions. Nonetheless, concerns persist as harvesting accelerates amid lingering heat stress. China has increased wheat imports from Australia and Canada as a precaution.

Weather across key growing regions remains a focal point. While the U.S. Northern Plains benefit from improved soil moisture, drought fears grow in parts of the Southern Plains. Europe continues to face rainfall deficits, particularly in France and Germany. Meanwhile, dryness in Australia's wheat belt raises concern, even as scattered showers provide minimal relief.