Chicago SRW wheat for May 2025 settled at $5.29¼ per bushel, rising 1 cent on the day. The uptick, though modest, followed a stretch of pressure across all major U.S. wheat contracts, with Kansas City and Minneapolis futures still weighed down by fragile export demand and persistent weather concerns. USDA’s weekly report showed net old crop sales falling into negative territory at -5.3 million bushels, with cancellations outpacing new commitments. On the other hand, new crop wheat secured 13.7 million bushels in sales, led by Mexico and Japan. Weather remains the key focus for wheat, with upcoming storms projected to bring over an inch of rain to areas including Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri—regions critical for U.S. winter wheat. Meanwhile, continued dryness across parts of Russia, Ukraine, China, and Australia adds a layer of concern to the global supply outlook.

Corn rebounded more strongly. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.77¼ per bushel, up 5¼ cents. The national average cash price rose to $4.50½, a 5½ cent gain on the day. Weekly export sales for corn totaled 1.15 million metric tons, nearing the top end of market expectations. Japan led as the primary buyer, followed by South Korea and Mexico. Despite some resistance from a firm dollar earlier in the week, the ethanol market offered fresh support, as production reached 1.033 million barrels per day—marking the highest weekly output since October 2024. Stockpiles simultaneously fell by over 1.3 million barrels to 25.481 million. Still, corn futures may face new volatility as the CBOT announced it will raise daily price limits to 35 cents starting May 1. Meanwhile, Midwest weather remains a watchpoint, with planting delayed in areas like Illinois and Iowa due to saturated soils.

Soybeans led the day’s rally. May 2025 contracts finished at $10.53 per bushel, climbing 12¾ cents. CmdtyView’s national cash soybean price also jumped sharply to $10.06¾, up 15¼ cents. Weekly export sales for old crop soybeans were reported at 277,012 metric tons—near the lower end of expectations, but still 31% above the same week last year. Mexico and the Netherlands were the top buyers. While new crop sales were minimal, market optimism is being fueled by whispers of improved U.S.–China trade ties, although no policy confirmations have emerged. Soyoil futures provided additional lift, jumping 103 to 174 points, while soymeal was mixed. ANEC revised Brazil’s April soybean export forecast slightly lower to 14.3 million metric tons, but the volume remains substantial amid robust international demand.

Weather trends across North America remained central to market behavior. Warm temperatures are expected to dominate through early May, coupled with storm systems stretching from the Rockies to the Appalachians. These patterns will boost longer-term soil moisture but are creating immediate planting headaches in regions such as the Delta and Lower Mississippi, where flooding risks and field saturation persist. In the Northern Plains, brief relief from showers was expected Thursday before more substantial rainfall returns over the weekend. Although this may ease drought conditions, it could simultaneously hinder fieldwork progress.

In the Central and Southern Plains, attention remains on wheat-growing zones. Western Kansas continues to suffer from dry conditions, though incoming storms may bring needed relief. Without adequate rain, already poor winter wheat ratings could slip further. Corn and soybean planting could also be affected if precipitation proves excessive. Across the Midwest, the balance of benefits and setbacks is still being determined. Recent rainfall has lifted soil moisture levels and helped reduce drought concerns, but it has also delayed spring planting in some areas. Forecasters predict alternating wet and dry spells heading into early May, offering narrow windows for farmers to push forward.

South American growing conditions offered a more nuanced picture. Brazil is receiving key showers across its central belt, providing relief to safrinha corn crops entering pollination and early grain fill stages. The turnaround in rainfall is welcome after April dryness raised fears of lower yields. Meanwhile, Argentina’s harvest continues to benefit from mostly dry weather, accelerating the collection of both soybeans and corn. However, longer-range forecasts suggest that May may bring renewed dryness across Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. While that could speed up harvest operations in the short term, it introduces fresh risks for late-planted corn and other soft commodities like coffee and wheat in regions where soil moisture is critically low.

In Paraguay, favorable conditions led analysts to revise the soybean production forecast upward by 5%, now projected at 10.2 million metric tons. Corn output is holding steady at 5.2 million, with dry weather proving ideal for harvest machinery and logistics. The strong performance from Paraguay adds another competitive layer to the South American grain export mix.

European grain markets are watching with cautious optimism. Consistent rainfall has benefited winter wheat crops across most of the continent, although spring sowings have been delayed. Areas like northeastern Poland remain dry, with recent rainfall failing to reach those pockets. Next week is expected to bring a milder weather window, potentially helping resume planting in those lagging regions.

Conditions in the Black Sea region remain less favorable. Although planting progress has not been severely impacted, wheat development is being held back by a combination of limited rainfall and cooler-than-normal temperatures. Without a shift in the weather pattern, yield potential for spring crops may remain under pressure, adding uncertainty to the export capabilities of key suppliers like Ukraine and southern Russia.

Policy developments are also shaping the global grain outlook. In Brazil, debates surrounding the Amazon soy moratorium are intensifying. A Supreme Court case could determine whether regional legislation that challenges the ban on deforested land soy cultivation is constitutional. Some farm groups argue for transforming the moratorium into a voluntary framework, while environmentalists continue to press for strict regulation to curb deforestation rates.

On the demand side, Egypt announced it plans to import 4.5 million metric tons of wheat in the next fiscal year—slightly down from the current year’s 4.8 million. The government aims to procure between 3.5 and 4 million tons domestically, and current stockpiles are deemed sufficient through late July. Egypt’s consistent demand offers opportunities for exporters from the Black Sea region, especially as Romanian wheat gains prominence in North African tenders.

U.S. corn output for the upcoming 2025/26 season has been revised slightly downward to 393 million metric tons. Despite steady planting progress, persistent soil dryness in parts of Iowa and Illinois is raising concerns about emergence and early-season growth. As volatility continues to characterize global agricultural markets, traders are closely monitoring weekly USDA updates, evolving weather signals, and new developments in international policy and trade.