Wheat

May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat futures opened Wednesday’s session at $5.32¼ per bushel, slipping 3¼ cents from Tuesday’s settlement. The wheat complex remains under technical and fundamental pressure after broad-based losses across all three major contracts the day before. Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis HRS both opened lower, reflecting deteriorating crop ratings and speculative repositioning. USDA’s Crop Progress showed winter wheat at 45% good-to-excellent nationally, with sharp week-over-week declines in Illinois, Colorado, and South Dakota. The emergence rate is on pace, and spring wheat planting reached 17%, ahead of the five-year average. Internationally, EU imports surged to 16.76 million metric tons, far above last year's pace, while South Korean mills purchased 50,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat overnight, lending some limited support to demand-side sentiment.

Corn

Corn futures for May 2025 opened at $4.72¾ per bushel on Wednesday, down 3 cents from the previous close. The pressure continues after Tuesday’s losses of 6 cents, as planting progress faced headwinds in key U.S. states due to forecasted rainfall and muddy field conditions. Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and several southeastern states remain behind average pace, while Iowa and Nebraska advanced significantly. Preliminary open interest in May dropped by more than 20,000 contracts, suggesting a shift in speculative positioning. CmdtyView’s national cash corn price declined another 6 cents to $4.48½. South American conditions were more supportive—Dr. Cordonnier increased his Brazilian production estimate to 125 MMT, while Argentina’s corn output was raised to 48 MMT on improved harvest weather and stable growing conditions.

Soybeans

Soybean futures for May 2025 began the session at $10.36½ per bushel, up 1½ cents from Tuesday’s close. The soy complex continues to show resilience, bolstered by easing trade rhetoric and bullish planting data. President Trump’s suggestion Tuesday evening that China tariffs might be lowered in the event of a trade agreement supported market optimism. USDA’s Crop Progress reported 8% of soybeans planted nationwide, three points ahead of average. Iowa and Illinois remain in the lead, with 11% and 10% planted respectively. Soymeal rose slightly Tuesday, while soyoil softened. Cash soybean prices climbed to $9.85¼, and EU import data showed a 9% year-over-year rise in soybean volumes, with soymeal imports also surging.

Global Grain Market Drivers – Key Developments for April 24

Weather developments remain central to market direction. Across North America, the 10-day outlook calls for widespread precipitation in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas—key winter wheat states—while the Northern Plains are forecast to trend drier, supporting spring planting. However, cooler-than-average temperatures may slow crop development across the Corn Belt. The USDA also announced $340.6 million in new disaster relief for rural U.S. communities affected by recent hurricanes, which could support long-term infrastructure and ag resilience.

In South America, weather conditions remain bifurcated. Argentina's Pampas will stay dry for another 10 days, helping soybean and corn harvests progress. In Brazil, rainfall across central regions continues to benefit second-crop (safrinha) corn, with favorable forecasts extending into next week. These conditions support upward revisions in production expectations for both nations.

Europe’s grain outlook received a cautiously positive update from the EU’s MARS unit, which maintained average to good yield forecasts for most countries. However, rainfall deficits of 50% or more were recorded in central and northern regions—including Germany, France, and Poland—where current dryness ranks among the worst since 1991. While Southern Europe remains well-watered, analysts warn that upcoming dry spells could exacerbate existing stress in cereals and oilseeds.

The Black Sea region presents a mixed picture. Ukrainian wheat production for 2025/26 remains steady at 19.9 million tons, bolstered by recent warm and wet weather. Still, drought risks remain elevated, particularly in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian rapeseed prices are surging amid reduced acreage and poor weather, with expected exports in 2025/26 falling to 2.72 million tons. Farmers are prioritizing spot sales over forwards due to volatile market risks.

In Russia, crop ratings hold firm at 90% satisfactory, but continued warm and dry conditions threaten yield potential if rains do not materialize soon. Meanwhile, March wheat exports dropped by 58% due to logistical bottlenecks and policy-imposed quotas. These supply-side risks are contributing to broader uncertainty across global wheat markets.

Palm oil markets were boosted by Indian buying after a five-month lull. Falling palm oil prices—now cheaper than soyoil—have prompted refiners in India to place larger import orders. April shipments are expected to hit 350,000 tons, with May and June forecast to surpass 500,000 and 600,000 tons, respectively. India’s renewed demand is expected to support Malaysian palm oil futures after a sharp YTD correction.

In Southeast Asia, Malaysia's Sabah region continues to face production issues due to drought. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council now sees total 2025 output falling to 19 million tons, down from 19.3 million last year. This, coupled with India’s increased buying, is expected to lend further support to global vegetable oil markets in coming weeks.

Biofuel trends in the U.S. remain constructive. Weekly ethanol production is forecast to decline slightly to 1.007 million barrels/day, while stockpiles are projected at 26.643 million barrels—both within seasonal norms. March saw 1.21 billion ethanol and 573 million biodiesel credits issued, pointing to solid blending demand and compliance activity. These dynamics continue to support corn and soy oil prices.

Barge logistics improved significantly in the U.S. inland system. For the week ending April 12, corn shipments increased by 71% and soybean movements rose 47%, highlighting easing transportation backlogs. Despite a minor dip in freight rates out of St. Louis, capacity utilization has recovered, supporting a more fluid grain export chain.

Finally, Morocco’s Ministry of Agriculture reported a projected grain harvest of 4.4 million tons in 2025, up 41% year-over-year. Increased rainfall and planted area are expected to drive gains in soft wheat, durum wheat, and barley. Agricultural GDP is forecast to rebound by 5.1%, reversing last year’s contraction and signaling greater food security and export potential.

As midweek trading unfolds, market participants will closely track planting progress, macroeconomic cues, and updated USDA and IGC forecasts. Volatility is likely to persist as traders respond to rapidly shifting weather signals and tightening margins in key production zones.