Wheat

Wheat markets finished Monday's session with a relatively flat tone. The May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat contract closed at $5.48¾ per bushel, unchanged from its opening level. While Minneapolis HRS managed to add up to ½ cent and Kansas City HRW futures hovered unchanged to slightly lower, overall movement remained subdued. Traders remained focused on lackluster weekly U.S. export sales, which came in at just 76,497 metric tons, raising concerns about reaching USDA’s annual forecast. On the global stage, Russia’s upgraded wheat production forecast by SovEcon to 79.7 million tons injected some optimism, although drought conditions in some parts of Russia and slowing Russian seaborne exports in March—down 58%—cast a shadow over forward-looking supply expectations.

Corn

Corn prices posted marginal strength on Monday. The May 2025 futures contract closed at $4.83¼ per bushel, up 1 cent on the day. Traders weighed stronger-than-expected weekly U.S. export sales—totaling 1.562 million metric tons and now reaching 87% of the annual USDA forecast—against mixed planting progress. Cool temperatures and patchy weekend rains across the Northern and Central Plains added to field delays. In South America, Brazil's central regions benefited from renewed rainfall, which supported safrinha corn pollination. Meanwhile, Argentina’s harvest continued in dry conditions, with limited precipitation forecast. The International Grains Council increased its 2024/25 and 2025/26 global corn production outlooks by 2 and 5 million tons respectively, reflecting robust planting trends and stronger-than-expected yields.

Soybeans

Soybean futures posted a modest gain to start the week. The May 2025 contract closed Monday at $10.37½ per bushel, up 1 cent from Friday’s settlement. The broader soybean complex was mixed, with soymeal slightly weaker and soyoil modestly firmer. Export sales of 554,806 metric tons provided a supportive floor, especially as cumulative commitments have reached 94% of the USDA target. However, ongoing export competition from Brazil—where soybean harvest progress continues to outpace earlier expectations—is putting pressure on the U.S. market. In China, soybean inventories are at their lowest in nearly three years, prompting crushers to stockpile amid fears of trade instability. The International Grains Council lowered its global soybean output forecast for 2024/25 by 1 million tons, although carryout for 2025/26 remained stable at 83 million tons.

Global Grain Market Drivers – Key Developments from Monday

Weather developments across key agricultural regions dominated market narratives. In the U.S., drier conditions in the Northern Plains were balanced by excessive rainfall and localized flooding in parts of Texas, Missouri, and the Mississippi Delta. These contrasting weather patterns have delayed fieldwork in key spring crop zones, particularly affecting corn and soybean planting schedules.

In Brazil, rains in Mato Grosso and other central states boosted confidence in the safrinha corn crop as pollination continues. While early April dryness raised alarm, recent weather improvements have stabilized yield prospects. Argentina, meanwhile, continued its soybean and corn harvest under predominantly dry skies, with only light rainfall expected this week—enough to permit fieldwork but not sufficient to ease long-term soil moisture deficits ahead of winter wheat planting.

Across Europe, widespread rainfall supported winter wheat growth and soil moisture recovery. However, in northeastern Europe—particularly Poland—deficits remain a concern. While conditions in France and Germany improved, persistent dryness in some areas threatens oilseed and spring cereal yields if not resolved in the coming weeks.

The Black Sea region continued to experience weather and trade-related uncertainties. While planting conditions are stable, warm temperatures and dry soil in parts of Russia are accelerating crop growth. Analysts expressed concern about final yield potential if precipitation remains limited. In parallel, logistics issues and export restrictions saw Russia’s March grain exports fall sharply, adding tension to the region’s outlook.

China emerged as a dual force in the market again this week. March soybean imports were among the lowest in over a decade at just 3.5 million tons, reflecting logistical delays in Brazil. However, analysts anticipate a surge in imports—up to 31.3 million tons—between April and June. Domestic soybean output is projected to increase by 2.5%, but the combination of low inventories and trade policy uncertainties is driving risk premiums into the market.

Palm oil markets responded to tightening conditions in Indonesia, where March exports declined by 2% due to strong domestic Ramadan demand. Despite the dip, total volumes were the highest for the month in four years. With palm oil now trading at a discount to soy oil, global buyers like India and Pakistan are expected to increase purchasing activity.

U.S. biofuel data provided mild price support. According to the EPA, March saw 1.21 billion ethanol and 573 million biodiesel credits generated, reinforcing expectations for stable blending activity. This strength comes amid political discussions around raising blending mandates, potentially increasing future corn and soybean oil demand.

Improved U.S. river logistics also helped boost barge shipments. For the week ending April 12, corn shipments jumped 71% and soybean shipments rose nearly 47%. While barge rates in St. Louis fell slightly, improved throughput indicated stronger downstream movement of grain, alleviating some transportation bottlenecks.

The International Grains Council’s latest report signaled a slight loosening in global grain markets. Global stocks for 2025/26 are now projected at 580 million tons—up by 2 million tons month-over-month—including modest increases in wheat and corn stock estimates. However, the overall level remains among the lowest in a decade, highlighting persistent market tightness.

Brazil faced localized downward pressure on domestic grain prices. CEPEA data showed corn prices falling by 2.1% between April 10–16 as buyers reduced spot purchases. Soybean prices were also down at ports like Paranaguá, though improved harvest and robust exports continue to support liquidity.

As the final week of April begins, markets remain in a fragile balance. With U.S. planting timelines tightening, China’s import behavior under scrutiny, and geopolitical and weather-related risks still present, volatility is expected to remain a core feature of global grain trading this week.