Wheat Market Recap

Wheat futures ended the session weaker across all major exchanges. Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat led losses, declining 5 to 6 cents, while Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat was down 1 to 2 cents in the front-month contracts. Minneapolis Spring Wheat (HRS) remained relatively stable, settling slightly lower by 2 cents in some contracts. The May 25 CBOT Wheat contract closed at $5.57 per bushel, down 5 ½ cents. The week’s trading saw some gains overall, with May wheat rising 5 ¾ cents, supported by export sales data and dry weather forecasts in key growing regions. FranceAgriMer kept its rating for France’s soft wheat crop steady at 74% good-to-excellent, while Strategie Grains adjusted its EU wheat production estimate slightly downward to 127.5 million metric tons (MT).

Corn Market Recap

Corn futures finished lower on Friday, with front-month contracts posting losses between 6 to 8 cents. The May 25 CBOT Corn contract closed at $4.58 ½ per bushel, down 6 ¾ cents. Over the week, May corn declined 10 ¾ cents, while new crop December contracts dropped 3 ¼ cents. The USDA reported private export sales of 218,604 MT of corn to an unknown destination. South Korean importers remained active, purchasing an additional 207,000 MT overnight. Meanwhile, hedge funds continued to unwind long positions in corn futures, reducing net longs by 73,211 contracts as of March 11.

Soybean Market Recap

Soybeans managed to post 5 to 7 cent gains on Friday, recovering from earlier losses. The May 25 CBOT Soybean contract closed at $10.16 per bushel, up 5 ¼ cents. Despite Friday’s gains, soybeans finished the week down 9 cents. The USDA reported private export sales of 20,000 MT of soybean oil to an unknown buyer. Argentina’s soybean crop outlook showed improvements, with 32% rated excellent, up 3% from the previous week, while poor crop ratings declined to 26%. Brazilian soybean production was revised downward to 172.45 million MT, a decrease of 2.43 million MT from earlier estimates.

Key Global Market Developments Impacting Grain Prices

Trade tensions between the European Union and the United States are intensifying, with the EU planning to impose tariffs on $28.2 billion worth of U.S. goods, including soybeans. European feed industry officials have warned that such tariffs could disrupt supply chains, as the region relies on imports for protein-rich feed. Meanwhile, China has escalated its response to U.S. trade policies by suspending soybean imports from three U.S. entities, further pressuring American export markets.

The U.S. ethanol sector continues to face challenges, with weekly ethanol production declining by 31,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.062 million bpd. Ethanol stocks increased slightly to 27.376 million barrels, weighing on corn demand.

Weather patterns remain a dominant factor in global grain markets. Heavy rainfall is forecast for the Mississippi River Delta and parts of the eastern Midwest, while dry conditions persist in the Southern Plains. In South America, Argentina is expected to remain dry for at least the next 10 days, with uncertainty beyond that timeframe. In Europe, eastern regions are set for short-term rainfall, but dry conditions are likely to return quickly.

China is likely to face a rapeseed meal shortage in the coming months, following the imposition of a 100% duty on Canadian imports. Rapeseed meal futures in Zhengzhou surged over 8% in response to the tariffs. Analysts caution that alternative sources, such as India and Russia, will likely struggle to compensate for the loss of Canadian supply, which could affect China’s animal feed sector in the third quarter of the year.

Brazil has implemented import tax reductions on food products, including corn, sugar, and beef, in an effort to combat inflation. These emergency measures aim to stabilize domestic food prices amid ongoing economic struggles.

Vietnam is reviewing its trade policies on U.S. agricultural goods in a bid to avoid reciprocal tariffs from Washington. Officials are considering reducing import duties on key U.S. products, including liquefied natural gas and farm commodities, to maintain positive trade relations. A U.S. business delegation of more than 60 companies is scheduled to visit Vietnam later this month to discuss trade adjustments.

Argentina’s soybean crushing sector resumed operations after a brief labor strike was lifted following government intervention. The dispute, which had temporarily shut down processing plants, highlighted tensions between workers and biodiesel producers. However, negotiations remain ongoing.

Heavy rainfall in Argentina’s agricultural heartland has provided much-needed relief to soybean crops, boosting expected output to 49.6 million MT. However, some northern regions still require additional moisture to optimize yields.

Bolivia’s soybean farmers are struggling with fuel shortages, which are disrupting the harvest in the Santa Cruz region. Farmers are reporting difficulties securing diesel, which could lead to significant crop losses. The government has attempted to ease the crisis by allowing fuel purchases via cryptocurrency, but concerns remain about long-term production stability.

The global palm oil market saw gains, with Malaysian prices rising 39 ringgit overnight (+0.86%) to 4,578 ringgit per ton. Continued demand from China and India is keeping edible oil markets firm. Chinese agricultural futures also showed mixed movements, with soymeal rising 31 yuan, soy oil up 114 yuan, and corn up 2 yuan.

U.S. grain markets remain highly volatile, as investors react to evolving trade disputes, supply risks, and shifting weather patterns. Today’s session is expected to see further fluctuations as traders assess global demand trends and production outlooks.

Market Outlook for Today’s Trading Session

With geopolitical tensions escalating and weather-related risks persisting, volatility is expected to remain high in grain markets. Traders will closely monitor the latest updates on EU-U.S. trade negotiations, China’s tariff policies, and South American crop forecasts. The USDA’s export sales data will also play a key role in shaping sentiment, particularly as soybean and corn exports face new challenges.

As global trade conditions shift and weather uncertainties persist, price swings are likely to continue, making today’s trading session a crucial one for market participants.