The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.0294, while the price of US WTI light crude oil rose to $80.04 per barrel.

In its first detailed forecast for 2026, OPEC predicts another year of steady growth in demand for crude oil, driven by India and China. Global oil consumption is expected to increase by a stable 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, matching the growth rate anticipated for this year and surpassing the projected rise in supply, the organization stated in its monthly report. In theory, this should allow Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners to revive suspended production, eventually restoring about 2 million barrels per day over the next two years.

However, the cartel's optimistic forecasts are undermined by signs of slowing economic growth in China and its failure to accurately predict last year's demand. OPEC's Vienna-based secretariat began 2024 with significantly stronger forecasts than other industry representatives, which it was forced to reduce by 47% over six consecutive monthly downgrades. Market observers such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Citigroup Inc. are predicting a global surplus this year, even if OPEC+ abandons plans to increase production.

Nonetheless, new large-scale U.S. sanctions against Russia and expectations of further restrictions from Donald Trump's future administration targeting Iran could shift the outlook.

Yesterday, Chicago March wheat futures increased by 3/4 cent to $5.47 per bushel. Wheat futures in Chicago posted minimal gains, while in Paris, it declined. For the week ending January 9, 2025, U.S. wheat export sales are expected to be between 150,000 and 400,000 tons. FranceAgriMer slightly increased France's year-end wheat stock forecast by 0.03 million tons to 2.9 million tons. French soft wheat exports in 2024/25 are projected at 9.74 million tons (down from 9.76 in the previous forecast and 42% lower than 2023/24). Egypt’s wheat stocks are sufficient to meet domestic demand for the next 3.8 months, with the government aiming to extend this to 6 months by purchasing up to 0.9 million tons of wheat, according to GASC. Egypt’s revised tender process complicates tracking the world’s largest wheat buyer. Reduced transparency in global markets has raised concerns that the balance may not be as stable as it seems. Russia continues to dominate Egypt's wheat purchases, supplying over 4 million tons, compared to Romania’s 780,000 tons as the second-largest supplier. Currently, Australian wheat is very competitively priced, and exports are expected to increase significantly in the coming weeks.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures rose by 4 1/4 cents to $4.78 3/4 per bushel. Corn futures in Chicago rose, while in Paris, they declined. Weekly U.S. corn export sales are anticipated to range between 0.5 and 1 million tons. For the week ending January 10, 2025, U.S. ethanol production reached 1.095 million barrels per day, down 7,000 barrels daily, while stocks increased by 860,000 barrels to 25.008 million barrels. Exports dropped by 30,000 barrels daily to 125,000 barrels, while refinery consumption rose by 50,000 barrels daily to 829,000 barrels. Taiwan purchased 65,000 tons of US corn. The Rosario Grain Exchange predicts Argentina’s corn production at 48 million tons (down from the previous estimate of 50–51 million tons). Analysts expect corn prices to rise to 5 USD/bushel, but this level could prompt U.S. farmers to release significant stockpiles, slowing price increases. Farmer-held stocks remain substantial, although demand is also robust. LSEG Commodities Research has raised its forecast for China’s corn production to 294.9 million tons.

Yesterday, March soybean futures in Chicago fell by 4 3/4 cents to $10.42 3/4 per bushel. Soybean and soymeal futures declined in Chicago, while soyoil futures rose. Rapeseed futures in Paris remained stable, while canola futures in Canada fell. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales are projected to be between 300,000 and 800,000 tons of the old crop year, with an additional 0–100,000 tons of the new crop. Soymeal sales are forecasted at 150,000–300,000 tons, and soyoil sales at 10,000–50,000 tons. According to NOPA data, 5.62 million tons of soybeans were processed in the United States in December (27,000 tons above forecasts, 6.96% higher than November, and 5.77% higher than December 2023). Argentina’s soybean production is projected at 53–53.5 million tons, unchanged from previous estimates, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Anec forecasts January soybean exports from Brazil at 2.19 million tons (up from 2.171 million in the previous estimate), corn exports at 2.98 million tons (up from 2.90 million), wheat exports at 662,090 tons (up from 519,290 tons), and soymeal exports at 1.8 million tons (up from 1.43 million tons).