The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0382. The price of US WTI light crude oil dropped to USD 69.38 per barrel.

Oil prices declined on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, which could negatively impact economic growth and reduce fuel demand. The supply-demand balance for 2025 remains unfavorable. Even if OPEC+ continues to limit production, the market could still face a surplus. Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that crude oil inventories in the country fell by 934,000 barrels in the week ending December 13, compared to analysts' expectations of a 1.6 million barrel decline.

Wheat Market:

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago dropped by 8 1/4 cents to $5.33 per bushel. Wheat futures fell in both Chicago and Paris. For the week ending December 12, 2024, U.S. export sales of wheat totaled 459,933 tons (up from 290,236 tons the previous week and 322,702 tons a year earlier). Export commitments reached 16.15 million tons (up from 14.86 million tons), while weekly exports stood at 405,744 tons (198,880 tons the previous week and 337,379 tons a year ago). Season-to-date exports amounted to 11.19 million tons (up from 8.73 million tons). South Korean importers purchased 86,800 tons of U.S. wheat.

Strategie Grains estimates the 2025/26 EU wheat production at 126.6 million tons (up 12.4 million tons from 2024/25). FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for France's ending wheat stocks to 2.87 million tons (up from 2.79 million tons in November, but down 9.9% year-over-year). Meanwhile, rising wheat exports from Australia and Argentina are offsetting declining Russian exports. Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of durum wheat. Thailand purchased 100,000 tons of feed wheat from the United States and Australia, with delivery scheduled for April-May.

Corn Market:

Yesterday, March corn futures in Chicago rose 3 1/2 cents to $4.40 3/4 per bushel. Corn prices increased in Chicago but declined in Paris. Weekly U.S. export sales of corn totaled 1,174,565 tons (compared to 946,863 tons the previous week and 1,013,095 tons a year earlier). Export commitments reached 36.31 million tons (up from 28.18 million tons), weekly exports stood at 1,054,466 tons (1,183,417 tons previously and 870,882 tons a year ago), while season-to-date exports totaled 13.62 million tons (up from 10.43 million tons). South Korean importers bought 268,000 tons of corn.

The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) raised its forecast for Brazil's corn production by 1 million tons to 128 million tons, 6 million tons higher than in 2023/24. Exports are expected to reach 48 million tons (up from 44 million tons). Argentina's corn production is also projected to be strong, putting pressure on global markets. China’s annual corn imports are expected to fall below 10 million tons, a significant drop from the 29 million tons imported just a few years ago.

Soybean Market:

Yesterday, Chicago January soybean futures rose 11 1/4 cents to $9.63 per bushel. Soybean complex prices increased in Chicago, rapeseed futures rose in Paris, and canola futures rose in Canada. The USDA reported a private export sale of 227,200 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination, including 152,200 tons fof the old crop and 75,000 tons from the new 2025/26 crop. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 1,424,158 tons (compared to 1,173,811 tons the previous week and 1,989,428 tons a year earlier). Export commitments reached 38.71 million tons (up from 35.28 million tons), weekly exports stood at 1,686,317 tons (1,859,119 tons previously and 1,329,059 tons a year ago), and season-to-date exports reached 25.17 million tons (up from 20.61 million tons). Soymeal sales totaled 261,586 tons, while soyoil sales reached 6,307 tons.

KLK highlights challenges in palm oil production in Malaysia, primarily due to aging trees. Replanting is costly, and delays reduce yields. Currently, 27% of trees are over 20 years old, and the annual replacement rate is below 4%. Patria AgroNegocios projects Brazil's soybean production for 2024/25 at 170.3 million tons, a 15.3% increase over 2023/24 and higher than previous estimates. Three South Korean companies purchased 180,000 tons of soybean meal.

Global and U.S. Economic Insights:

The world is digesting the Fed's intention to lower interest rates by only 0.5% in 2025, down from the previously projected 1%. The steady growth of the U.S. economy is not helping global inflation, and issues in countries like China and Russia are not influencing U.S. policies. The newly elected U.S. president announced plans to increase domestic oil production to lower prices, which could impact the global oil segment.