Grain Highlights 19.12.2024

The USDA FAS has increased its forecast for Brazil's corn production by 1 million tons to 128 million tons, which is 6 million tons more than 2023/24.

The USDA FAS has increased its forecast for Brazil's corn production by 1 million tons to 128 million tons, which is 6 million tons more than 2023/24. Exports are expected to be 48 million tons (compared to 44 million tons last year). The production in Argentina is also expected to be strong, putting pressure on global markets.

In November, Indonesia's palm oil exports fell by 10% compared to October, reaching 2.01 million tons (down from 2.23 million tons). Starting in January, a further decline in exports is anticipated with the introduction of B40 biodiesel. According to Transgraph Consulting, the decline in exports will be gradual in 2025 but will accelerate significantly in 2026. This change is expected to increase Indonesia's domestic demand for palm oil to 1.5–1.7 million tons.

In 2025, India will be one of the largest consumers of palm and soybean oils. The country is the most populous in the world and has the fifth-largest economy. Analysts are optimistic about the development of India’s oil market.

KLK paints a less-than-rosy picture for palm oil production in Malaysia. A key issue is the aging of palm trees. Replanting is an expensive process, and delays in it are reducing yields. Currently, 27% of trees are over 20 years old, and over the years, the annual replanting rate has not exceeded 4%. Palm oil cannot be excluded from the global oil supply chain. If it were removed, 140 million hectares of new land, equivalent to the combined area of Malaysia and Germany, would need to be cultivated with new oil crops.

Jordan has purchased 60,000 tons of feed barley from an unspecified origin at a price of USD 252 per ton C&F, with delivery scheduled between January 15–31, 2025. A tender to purchase 120,000 tons of milling wheat was canceled.

According to market operators, on December 18, 2024, Algeria purchased 350,000–500,000 tons of durum wheat from various origins. The purchase price was USD 340–352 per ton C&F, with the grain sourced from Canada, the United States, and Australia with delivery in March–April.

The reduction in US interest rates and the Federal Reserve's announcement of only two rate cuts of 0.25% each in 2025—compared to expectations of four cuts of the same amount—has depressed stock and commodity markets. Under these conditions, the dollar strengthened while oil prices dropped. Grain prices also faced challenges.