Grain Highlights 21.11.2024

According to forecasts by the Russian Grain Union, grain exports from Russia for the period July–November will amount to 30 million tons, exceeding 50% of the country’s annual export potential.

During the period November 1–20, wheat exports from Russia reached 3.165 million tons (+27% compared to the same period in November 2023). Barley exports amounted to 177,000 tons (383,000 previously), corn exports to 97,000 tons (443,000 previously), and total grain exports to 3.439 million tons (+3.8%).

According to forecasts by the Russian Grain Union, grain exports from Russia for the period July–November will amount to 30 million tons, exceeding 50% of the country’s annual export potential. Total grain exports for the 2024/25 season will be 56 million tons, leaving 26 million tons to be exported by the season's end on June 30, 2024. Wheat exports will total 45 million tons, with 18.3 million tons remaining to be exported by the end of the season. In November, wheat exports are expected to reach 4.8 million tons, barley 265,000 tons, and corn 145,000 tons.

In 2024, Russia's wheat production is projected at 83 million tons (compared to 92.8 million in 2023). For 2025, farmers are expected to reduce wheat sowing areas in favor of soybeans. In 2024, the profitability of wheat cultivation in Russia is approaching zero.

According to Secex data, soybean exports from Brazil reached 1.48 million tons during November 1–15 (compared to 5.2 million tons in November 2023). In October, exports were 4.71 million tons (-15.9% compared to October 2022).

Abiove forecasts Brazil's soybean production for 2024/25 at 167.7 million tons, a 9.4% increase from 2023/24. The current production record was set in 2022/23 at 160.3 million tons. Exports are projected at 104.1 million tons (+5.9%), while processing is estimated at 57 million tons (+4.6%).

According to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Malaysia will increase the export duty on palm oil from 8% to 10% in December. The reference price for the product will be 4,471 ringgit per ton.

Algeria has purchased 160,000–350,000 tons of durum wheat of unspecified origin at a price of 360 USD/ton C&F. Delivery will take place between January and February, with most of the supply coming from Romania and Bulgaria, and smaller quantities from the Baltic states.