Grain Highlights 16.10.2024

The Russian Grain Exporters Union has started publishing consensus indicative prices for the export of Russian wheat for October, November, and December.

- The Russian Grain Exporters Union has started publishing consensus indicative prices for the export of Russian wheat for October, November, and December. For wheat with 12.5% protein, the price for October is 240 USD/ton, the price for November is at 245 USD/ton, and the price for December is at 250 USD/ton, all FOB Novorossiysk. For wheat with 11.5% protein, the FOB prices are 5 USD/ton lower, and for wheat with 10.5% protein, the reduction is 15 USD/ton. Recalculated for December, the minimum price for Russian wheat with 11.5% protein FOB Novorossiysk is 245 USD/ton, and for 10.5% protein wheat, it is 235 USD/ton. Last week, the FOB price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content was 230–233 USD/ton.

- As of October 13, 2024, 67% of soybean fields and 47% of corn fields in the United States have been harvested, with 63% of the corn crops in good to excellent condition. This year is one of the few exceptions where corn harvesting lags significantly behind soybeans.

- Conab has made its first forecast for soybean production in Brazil for 2024/25. The soybean production is estimated at 166.05 million tons (+12.7% compared to 2023/24), with an increase in planted area by 2.8% to 47.33 million hectares. Soybean exports are projected at 105.54 million tons, with ending stocks at 4.16 million tons. Total grain and oilseed production is forecasted at 322.47 million tons (+8.3%).

- In August, Australian canola exports reached 375,480 tons (386,000 in July and 358,000 in August 2023). Key buyers were Japan (120,129 tons), UAE (90,732 tons), and Pakistan (65,038 tons). The UAE is a key player in the global market due to its high price sensitivity. The country usually imports around 800,000 tons annually, but if China imposes a ban on importing Canadian canola, demand will shift to Australia, causing Canada to lower its prices. In Western Australia, the harvest has already begun, but a decline in production of 0.3 million tons to 2.2 million tons is expected.

- In September, China imported 11.37 million tons of soybeans (12.14 million in August, which was a record). The reason for these high numbers is the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections.

- Egypt’s state-owned company GASC purchased 50,000 tons of sunseed oil at 1,185 USD/ton, with delivery expected in early January. Egypt's strategic reserves of vegetable oils are sufficient to meet domestic demand for the next 7.5 months. The next lowest offer was at 1,229 USD/ton, which is 184 USD/ton higher than the previous tender held on 10.09.2024. The lowest price for soyoil is 1,145 USD/ton (+75).