Grain Highlights 27.09.2024

According to a forecast by ProZerno, Russia's grain exports in 2024/25 will be 22–23 million tons lower than the previous year, reaching 48.7 million tons.

- According to a forecast by IKAR, the oilseed production in Russia is expected to reach 28.5 million tons in 2024. The wheat production will be below 82 million tons, barley production is expected to be below 17 million tons, and corn production below 12 million tons. The total grain production will not exceed 125 million tons. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that by 2030, Russia's oilseed production will reach 36.378 million tons, which is 46.4% more than in 2021, while the 2023 production was 29.871 million tons.

- For the week of October 2–8, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 1,246 rubles/ton (1,076.7 rubles a week earlier). The export tax on corn will be 278.6 rubles/ton (292.7 rubles), while barley remains duty-free.

- The Russian Union of Grain Exporters forecasts Russia’s grain production in 2024 to be 125.9 million tons (-0.5% compared to the previous estimate in June 2024), including 83.4 million tons of wheat (+5.2%), 17.8 million tons of barley (-3.3%), 12.7 million tons of corn (-14.8%), and 12 million tons of other crops (-5.5%). Exports are estimated at 53.3 million tons (-0.4%), including wheat exports of 43.5 million tons (+8.7%), barley exports of 3.9 million tons (-9.3%), and corn exports of 2.8 million tons (-44%).

- According to a forecast by ProZerno, Russia's grain exports in 2024/25 will be 22–23 million tons lower than the previous year, reaching 48.7 million tons. The outcome will largely depend on whether the state reserve sells grain, some of which could be exported. If these sales do not happen, total exports may decrease by another 3–4 million tons. Wheat exports will be 40.4 million tons (52.2 million in 2023/24).

- From July 1 to September 27, 2024, Ukraine exported 10.053 million tons of grain (6.339 million a year earlier), including 2.857 million tons in September (1.752 million). This includes 5.802 million tons of wheat (3.115 million), 1.253 million tons of barley (0.603 million), and 2.734 million tons of corn (2.599 million).

- As of September 26, 2024, 72% of Ukraine’s grain areas have been harvested, yielding 34.288 million tons of grain with an average yield of 4.31 tons/hectare (4.36 tons/hectare last year). Corn has been harvested on 23% of the areas, with 4.72 million tons of grain collected at a yield of 5.13 tons/hectare. Wheat production has risen to 22.327 million tons, and barley to 5.536 million tons.

- According to Serbian statistics, the country's 2024 wheat production is 2.9 million tons (-16% compared to 2023), while corn production will reach 5.425 million tons (-18%).

- In July, the industrial processing of corn in the United States reached 13.3 million tons (+6% compared to June and +4% compared to July 2023). Of this, 12 million tons were used for ethanol production (+6% and +4%).

- According to a forecast by FAS USDA from Cairo, Egypt's wheat production in 2024/25 will be 9.2 million tons (8.87 million in 2023/24). Wheat imports are estimated at 12.5 million tons.