Grain Highlights 19.11.2021

According to the forecast of the United Grain Company, 41-42 million tons of grain will be exported from Russia in 2021/22, including 31 - 32 million tons of wheat.

- By 2030, the EU will shift from a net exporter of wheat to a net importer, which will be catastrophic for the markets. Countries in Africa and the Middle East will increase wheat imports from the current 80-90 million tons to 100-110 million tons. By 2030, wheat exports from Russia are projected to increase by 13-16 million tons to 49-52 million tons and wheat exports from Ukraine are expected to increase by 5-7 million tons to 26-29 million tons. Thus, the total exports from these two countries will increase by 18 - 23 million tons.

- Sunseed stocks held by processors in Russia are unusually low. Stocks usually last for 3-4 months. Now, the processing does not decrease and the stocks are sufficient enough for just 1-2 weeks.

- Over the week of November 24-30, the export tax on wheat from Russia will reach 78.3 USD/ton (77.1 weeks earlier). The export tax on barley will be 65.3 USD/ton (66) and the export tax on corn 53.6 USD/ton (62.9).

- Despite the good sunseed production in Ukraine - 15.6 million tons, the purchases of processors are 50% lower in the new season. This keeps the prices of sunseed oil with delivery in December high at 1,420 - 1,425 USD/ton FOB.

- According to FranceAgriMer, as of 15.11.2021, 91% of the corn areas have been harvested with corn in France (+9% for the week and 99% a year earlier). The sowing campaign of winter wheat was carried out on 93% of the planned areas (+6% and 94%) and the sowing campaign on winter barley is now completed on 97% of planned areas (+3% and 98%). 99% of the winter wheat and barley crops are in good and excellent condition. Durum was sown on 56% of the planned areas (+18% and 72%).

- Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for wheat exports from the EU in 2021/22 by 1.6 million tons compared to the previous estimate to 30.4 million tons. The reduction is due to high wheat prices. EU wheat stocks have increased by 2 million tons to a total of 12 million tons.

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the sowing campaign of soybeans has progressed by +9.8% to 28.6% of the total planned areas last week (November 11-17) in Argentina. The sowing campaign of sunseed was completed on 89.1% of the planned areas (+2.6%) and 41% of the crops (+5% for the week) are in good and excellent condition. The sowing campaign of corn was completed at 29.2% (+0.2%) and 91% of the crops are in good and excellent condition (+7% and 35% a year earlier).

- Over the period of 01.05.2021 - 19.11.2021, 4 million tons of wheat were delivered to Iran. Authorities bought 4.5 million tons of wheat from local farmers. In addition to wheat, the country imported 5.5 million tons of corn and 2.2 million tons of barley.