Grain Highlights 12.11.2021

Conab has raised its forecast for the 2021/22 corn production in Brazil by +0.4 million tons compared to the previous estimate to 116.7 million tons

- In the week of November 17-23, the export tax on Russian wheat will reach 77.1 USD/ton (69.9 weeks earlier). The export tax on barley will be 66 USD/ton (54.8) and the export tax on corn will reach 62.9 USD/ton (50.1).

- On 12.11.2021, Euronext wheat futures prices reached their highest point for the last 13 years - 297.25 EUR/ton. The growth was mainly driven by the rising value of export taxes on Russian wheat and the introduction of export quotas from Russia (since mid-February).

- The Ministry of Agriculture of France has increased its estimate for the 2021/22 wheat production in the country by 0.3 million tons to 35.5 million tons, which is +22% higher compared to 2020/21. The forecast for the corn production is 14.5 million tons (+0.9 compared to the previous estimate and +1.2 compared to 2020/21). The barley production is projected at 11.4 million tons (10.4 in 2020/21).

- According to FranceAgriMer, as of 08.11.2021, the sowing campaign of winter barley in France has been completed on 94% of the planned areas (+4% for the week and 93% a year earlier). 87% of the planned areas for winter wheat have also been sown (+7% and 86%). Corn has been harvested on 83% of the areas (+10% and 97%) and the yields are very promising. The corn production is expected at 11.8% (+10% compared to last year).

- On Friday, commodity funds in Chicago were net buyers of 2,500 contracts of corn, 2,000 contracts of soybeans and 6,500 contracts of wheat.

- At the end of last week, 67% of the new 2021/22 soybean crop was sown in Brazil (56% a year earlier). The result is the second highest in history, second only to the 2018/19 harvest. In Mato Grosso, 95.7% of the areas for the new soybean crop are sown (+12.6% for the week).

- Conab has raised its forecast for the 2021/22 corn production in Brazil by +0.4 million tons compared to the previous estimate to 116.7 million tons, including a first corn production of 28.6 million tons (+0.3) and a second corn production of 86.3 million tons (-0.1). In 2020/21, total corn production reached 87 million tons (24.7 and 60.7). Domestic consumption of corn is estimated at 76 million tons (+2.4 million tons and + 5%) and corn exports are expected to reach 36.7 million tons (-2.3 million tons and + 83%). The ending stocks of corn are projected at 12.5 million tons (+1 million tons and 7.6). Soybean production will reach a record 142 million tons (+1.3 and 3%). Soybean areas are estimated at 40.3 million hectares (+0.4 and 38.9) and domestic consumption of soybeans is expected at 50.7 million tons (-2 and no change). Soybean exports are expected to reach a total of 89.9 million tons +2.5 and + 7%). Ending soybean stocks are projected at 9.3 million tons (+3.9 and + 26%).