The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.1792. The price of US WTI crude oil decreased to 66.42 USD/barrel.

The price of oil fell after OPEC reached an agreement to increase production by 2022, resolving a sharp internal dispute that shook the alliance. Initially, OPEC+ will produce an additional 400,000 barrels per day each month from August, increasing production by a total of about 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The increase in the monthly yield will continue next year, as OPEC+ announced that it is extending the deal until December 2022.

Yesterday, CBOT SRW September wheat futures prices rose by 5 1/4 cents to close at $6.97 3/4 a bushel. Conditions for the development of spring wheat crops are now extremely poor in the United States and Canada. The difference between durum and soft wheat prices in Chicago and Paris has become significant in recent weeks. Minneapolis spring wheat prices have reached levels not seen since 2012. We have seen a decline in the assessments of the quality of spring wheat crops again. Drought has affected spring wheat areas in Russia. In the week ended 15.07.2021, the export inspections of wheat from the United States were 490.626 tons (427.819 tons a week earlier and 512.305 tons a year earlier). Since the beginning of the season, total export inspections have reached 2.82 million tons (3.59 million tons a year earlier). As of July 18, 2021, winter wheat was harvested on 73% of the areas in the United States (59% a week earlier and 74% on average for the last five years). 11% of the spring wheat crops (16% and 69%) are in good and excellent condition. Over the past week, wheat prices in the Black Sea region have risen by 3 - 6 USD/ton mainly due to drought in Russia and Ukraine, where wheat crops are still growing. Russia has lowered the export tax on wheat to 35.20 USD/ton (39.30 USD/ton a week earlier).

Yesterday, the prices of December corn futures in Chicago increased by 1/4 cent to close at $5.52 1/4 a bushel. However, the session was associated with many twists and turns, which were catalyzed by various news during the day. Precipitation and temperatures in the United States remain a key factor. The latest forecasts keep expectations for high temperatures and precipitation below normal in the western and northern parts of the US Corn Belt. The weekly export inspections of corn from the United States are at the level of 1,000,512 tons (1,002,342 tons and 1,220,792 tons). Since the beginning of the season, export inspections of corn add up to a total of 60.16 million tons (36.52). As of July 18, 2021, 65% of corn crops (65% and 69%) are in good and excellent condition in the United States. The conditions for the development of spring wheat crops in the United States weighed heavily on the corn market, where the loss of yield is deepening because the season is progressing and there is no precipitation. The agreement to increase oil production from OPEC+ sharply reduced commodity prices. However, all these factors combined failed to lower corn prices. This may happen in the coming days. AgRural estimates the second corn production in Brazil at 59.1 million tons (-21% compared to last year). Farmers in Brazil are holding back sales in anticipation of higher prices. Reduced rainfall in the United States and a poor corn production in Argentina (the lowest for the last three seasons) are the reason for these expectations.

Yesterday, Chicago November soybean futures prices fell by 19 cents to close at $13.72 3/4 a bushel. Soybean prices fell after a drop in oil and soyoil prices. The factors that suppressed corn yesterday also applied to the soybean market. The crucial factor now is the rainfall and high temperatures in certain areas of the US Corn Belt. Favorable rainfall from last week in much of the US Corn Belt will have a positive impact on crops this week. The weekly export inspections of soybeans from the United States were at the level of 143,934 tons (201,129 and 454,719) and since the beginning of the season they totaled 57.80 million tons (38.32). 60% of soybean crops (59% and 69%) are in good and excellent condition in the United States. Rainfall in India is below normal for this time of year, which will affect rice and soybean areas.

Weather forecasts in the United States indicate for hot and dry conditions in the central part of the US Corn Belt by the end of the month. It will remain dry in Canada and Russia. There will be precipitation in the central and northern parts of Ukraine, but it will pass in 1-2 days. No precipitation is expected in Bulgaria and Romania. The dry period has come for this season in the Northern Hemisphere.