Disappointing US field checks and continued Black Sea supply risks are giving corn and soybeans fresh upside momentum, while wheat remains mixed as improving harvest progress competes with tighter export and production concerns.

Chicago grain markets enter Tuesday with a generally firmer tone, led by corn and soybeans after disappointing first-day results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour reinforced concerns over US yield potential. Wheat is more mixed, with Black Sea disruptions and weaker European production prospects providing support while accelerating US harvest progress and improving spring wheat conditions limit the upside.

Black Sea Supply Disruptions Remain a Key Supportive Force

Continued supply disruptions from the Black Sea are helping maintain a risk premium across the grain complex. The persistence of these disruptions is especially important for wheat, where the region remains a critical source of export availability, but the uncertainty is also spilling over into corn and supporting broader agricultural markets. Tuesday’s early trade reflects this combination of geopolitical supply concerns and fresh production uncertainty from the United States.

Russian wheat export expectations remain relatively restrained. IKAR expects Russia to export 2.1–2.6 MMT in August, up from 1.6 MMT in July, while Russian wheat export prices ended last week at $215/MT, down $5/MT from the previous week. The increase from July offers some supply relief, but export volumes remain an important market focus as Black Sea disruptions continue to create uncertainty around actual flows.

Pro Farmer Crop Tour Raises Fresh Questions Over US Corn Yields

The opening results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour were notably weaker than last year and the recent average. South Dakota corn yields were estimated at 149.09 bpa, down 14.41% from last year and 8.37% below the three-year average, while Ohio came in at 180.18 bpa, down 2.97% year on year and 2.25% below the three-year average. Nebraska was also estimated at 160.7 bpa versus 179.5 bpa last year.

The weaker field results are supportive for corn because they challenge expectations for exceptionally strong US production. Updated acreage and crop-rating calculations point to an average yield of 180.4 bpa and production of 15.983 bbu, slightly below USDA’s forecast of 16.013 bbu. With futures reaching three-month highs overnight, further Crop Tour results will be closely watched for confirmation that yield potential is slipping below official expectations.

US Corn Conditions Slip as Export Demand Remains Strong

US corn condition ratings declined by 1 percentage point to 60% good/excellent, with overall ratings falling to a new low for the growing season and sitting slightly below the historical average. Crop development remains slightly ahead of normal, with 76% in the dough stage, 29% dented and 4% mature. The combination of advancing maturity and weaker condition scores gives the market a moderately supportive production signal.

Export demand is providing a much stronger bullish signal. Weekly corn inspections reached 1.91 MMT, up 8.55% from the previous week and 81.71% above the same week last year. Marketing-year exports have now reached 80.95 MMT, running 26.05% ahead of last year with just over two weeks remaining in the marketing year, strengthening the demand side of the corn balance.

Soybean Crop Tour Results Reinforce Yield Concerns

Soybeans are receiving similar support from disappointing Crop Tour observations. South Dakota pod counts averaged 945.98 pods per 3×3-foot square, down 20.4% from last year and 12.07% below the three-year average. Ohio came in at 1,197.25, down 6.99% from last year and 4.74% below the three-year average, while Nebraska was reported at 1,269 pods versus 1,348 last year.

US soybean ratings also slipped by 1 percentage point to 61% good/excellent, matching the lowest composite rating of the crop cycle while remaining slightly above the historical average. Development is advanced, with 85% of the crop setting pods, five percentage points ahead of the five-year average. The early Crop Tour numbers are supportive, although updated calculations still suggest a 53 bpa national yield and production of 4.547 bbu, slightly above USDA’s 4.519 bbu forecast.

NOPA Crush Misses Expectations, but Tight Soybean Oil Stocks Offer Support

Monday’s NOPA crush came in at 216.65 million bushels, below expectations of 221.5 mbu. Despite the miss, July crush was still a record for the month, 10.7% above last year and 1.08% higher than June, showing that domestic processing demand remains strong.

Soybean oil stocks were reported at 1.36 billion lbs, down 9.39% from June and below expectations of 1.454 billion lbs. The smaller oil inventory is supportive for the soybean complex and helps offset the slightly disappointing crush headline. Soymeal is also firmer Tuesday morning, while higher crush margins add another supportive element to the processing side of the market.

Soybean Export Pace Remains a Weak Spot

Unlike corn, US soybean export inspections remain comparatively soft. Shipments for the week ending August 13 totaled 270,201 MT, down 34% from the previous week and 46.3% below the same week last year. Marketing-year exports stand at 40.04 MMT, which is 18.2% behind last year’s pace.

That weaker shipment pace remains an important bearish counterweight to the Crop Tour concerns and strong domestic crush. However, US Gulf FOB soybean offers remain $0.30–$0.35/bu below Brazilian offers through the end of 2026, providing a potentially supportive competitive advantage for US origin as the market looks toward future export demand.

US Weather Turns Less Extreme, but Regional Risks Persist

The Midwest has received some relief from the recent heavy rains, with the heaviest precipitation during the past 24 hours concentrated across central Nebraska. Light and scattered rainfall is expected across much of the Midwest through the end of the week, with the greatest concentration across central Missouri, while normal to below-normal temperatures are expected across much of the central Midwest and Great Lakes. These conditions could reduce immediate crop stress, limiting some of the bullish weather premium.

The southwestern Plains remain hot and dry, while northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil are expected to see cooler-than-normal temperatures and moderate precipitation. Other South American production areas are forecast to remain warmer than normal with limited rainfall. Southern France and Germany are turning cooler with healthier rain prospects, but the improvement is considered too late to provide meaningful benefit to EU corn production, leaving European supply concerns supportive for corn.

Wheat Harvest Advances, but Production Risks Remain

US winter wheat harvest reached 96% complete, two percentage points ahead of the normal pace, while spring wheat harvest advanced to 41%, compared with the five-year average of 34%. Spring wheat conditions improved by 1 percentage point to 52% good/excellent, providing some bearish pressure as the crop moves rapidly toward completion.

However, production risks remain. Updated acreage and crop-rating calculations suggest spring wheat production of 457 million bushels, below USDA’s 474 million forecast. Germany’s wheat harvest is forecast at 20.9 MMT, down 7.7% year on year, adding another supportive element to the global supply picture.

US wheat export inspections also improved to 493,401 MT, up 1.54% week on week and 22.43% from the same week last year. Marketing-year shipments remain 19.29% below last year, however, meaning stronger recent demand has not yet fully reversed the weaker cumulative export pace.

Macro Markets Offer Limited Direction

Energy markets are mixed Tuesday morning, with WTI crude up $0.80/barrel at $85.30, RBOB up $0.03 and heating oil down $0.02 after reaching a new contract high. The US dollar is little changed after reaching a two-month low on Monday, while US stock indices are steady to down 1%. The macro backdrop therefore provides limited directional influence, leaving weather, Crop Tour results and Black Sea developments as the dominant agricultural market drivers.

Wheat: Chicago Slips While KC and Spring Wheat Hold Firmer

Sep ’26 CBOT wheat is trading at $6.73 1/4/bu, down 1 1/2 cents Tuesday morning, after closing Monday unchanged at $6.74 3/4/bu. Sep ’26 KC wheat is steady at $7.58 3/4/bu, while Sep ’26 MIAX wheat is up 3 cents at $6.78/bu. Faster US harvest progress and slightly improved spring wheat conditions are limiting Chicago, while Black Sea disruption, a smaller German crop outlook and indications that US spring wheat production could undershoot USDA continue to support the broader wheat complex.

Corn: Crop Tour Disappointment Pushes Futures to Three-Month Highs

Sep ’26 corn is at $4.66/bu, up 1 cent Tuesday morning, while Dec ’26 is up 1 1/2 cents at $4.91/bu. Both contracts traded to three-month highs overnight after Sep ’26 closed Monday at $4.65/bu, up 6 cents. Weaker-than-last-year Pro Farmer yield estimates in South Dakota, Ohio and Nebraska, declining crop ratings and strong US export inspections are supporting prices, while improving Midwest weather and advancing crop maturity may limit the upside.

Soybeans: Futures Reach New Monthly Highs on Crop Tour Concerns

Sep ’26 soybeans are trading at $12.07 1/2/bu, up 6 1/2 cents, while Nov ’26 is up 7 cents at $12.23/bu, with both contracts reaching new highs for the month. Sep ’26 closed Monday at $12.01/bu, up 23 1/4 cents. Disappointing Pro Farmer pod counts, weaker US crop ratings and lower-than-expected soybean oil stocks are supporting the rally, while softer export inspections and a NOPA crush below expectations remain the main bearish counterweights.