Wheat gives back part of Friday’s geopolitical rally, while corn and soybeans start Monday firmer as heavy Midwest rains, crop-tour expectations and Chinese demand shape the new week.
Chicago grain markets are opening Monday with a mixed tone after a strong finish last week. Wheat is under moderate pressure following Friday’s Black Sea-driven rally, while corn and soybeans are trading modestly higher as traders assess weekend rainfall, the start of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, export demand and the continuing risk of disruption to Black Sea grain flows.
Wheat Retreats After Friday’s Black Sea Rally
Wheat is starting Monday lower after leading the grain complex sharply higher on Friday. Sep ’26 CBOT wheat closed the previous session at $6.74 3/4/bu, up 22 cents, while Chicago SRW gained 35 cents over the week and September KC HRW rose 40 1/4 cents. Monday’s pullback follows an overnight move to a new monthly high, suggesting some profit-taking after the strong geopolitical rally.
The underlying Black Sea risk, however, has not disappeared. Russia rejected Ukraine’s proposal for a ceasefire covering civilian vessels and port infrastructure on Friday, while attacks continued through the weekend. A vessel was also struck in Odesa, and the continuing threat to export infrastructure remains supportive for wheat because disruptions could restrict shipments from one of the world’s major exporting regions.
Russian Export Expectations Keep Wheat Supply Risk Elevated
The supply concern is being reinforced by expectations for weaker Russian exports. IKAR expects Russian wheat exports in August to fall 55% from August last year, adding to concerns that logistical and geopolitical disruptions could materially slow Black Sea availability. While wheat is correcting lower this morning, reduced Russian export flows remain an important bullish counterweight to the early selling pressure.
US wheat demand is less supportive. Total 2026/27 wheat export sales stand at 7.538 MMT, equal to 36% of USDA’s current export estimate and below the average sales pace of 44%. That slower commitment pace limits the strength of the US wheat demand story and helps explain why futures are struggling to extend Friday’s gains despite continuing Black Sea concerns.
Plains Rain Offers Limited Relief Ahead of Fall Seeding
Weather is also contributing to Monday’s wheat weakness. Surprise overnight rainfall moved across the Oklahoma Panhandle, far south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, delivering the best rain in weeks to some areas. The moisture is temporarily bearish for winter wheat, although much more rain will be needed to rebuild soil moisture before fall planting, while the heat dome is expected to remain centered over the southern Plains for the next two weeks.
HRS conditions will also remain in focus after a significant increase in drought-affected acreage during the past three weeks. El Niño concerns are encouraging some weather-related buying, meaning the broader wheat weather outlook remains mixed rather than decisively bearish.
Corn Starts Firmer as Pro Farmer Crop Tour Begins
Corn is trading 1 3/4 to 2 1/4 cents higher in the front months Monday morning after a strong Friday session. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour begins this week, putting greater emphasis on field-level yield observations as traders compare actual crop conditions with existing production expectations. Muddy conditions are expected across parts of the eastern Corn Belt following heavy weekend rain, while western areas may show tipback and eastern areas flooding damage.
Corn is also receiving support from deteriorating European crop conditions. French ratings fell another 2% to 29% good/excellent, while private analysts now expect production could fall by half from last year and potentially reach the lowest level since 1976. Continued Black Sea attacks and a weaker US dollar, which reached its lowest level since June 15, are additional supportive factors for the corn market at the start of the week.
Strong Old-Crop Corn Demand Contrasts With Slower New-Crop Sales
US corn export performance remains split between strong old-crop commitments and weaker forward demand. Old-crop sales have reached 87.503 MMT, or 104% of USDA’s projection, while accumulated shipments stand at 80.066 MMT, equivalent to 95% of the USDA forecast. New-crop sales, however, are 23.5% below the same period last year at 10.575 MMT, creating a less supportive demand picture further forward.
South American supply is another factor to watch. AgRural estimates Brazil’s second corn crop at 85% harvested, still behind the 94% pace recorded at the same point last year. Argentina’s harvest has reached 89% complete, compared with the normal pace of 97%, while slow farmer selling contrasts with a record-high July export total driven by cheap prices. These factors suggest continued competition in global corn trade even as US exports remain strong.
Soybeans Gain as Excess Rain and China Demand Offer Support
Soybeans are starting Monday 4 to 5 cents higher, supported by heavy rainfall across already saturated areas of the central and eastern Corn Belt. Additional storms are expected this week across Iowa and southern Illinois, while the Pro Farmer Crop Tour is likely to encounter muddy conditions from Iowa through Ohio. Excess moisture and flooding concerns are supportive for soybeans because they could increase uncertainty around yield potential in affected areas.
China remains the key demand story. USDA reported a private sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China on Friday for 2026/27 shipment, taking announced sales last week to 641,000 MT, all to China. Total new-crop soybean sales have reached 10.13 MMT, a four-year high and more than double the same period last year, providing strong support against seasonal harvest pressure.
NOPA Crush and Sinograin Auctions Set Up Key Soybean Tests
Monday’s NOPA report will be an important intraday catalyst for soybeans. Traders are looking for July crush of 221.5 million bushels, compared with 214.3 million in June, while soybean oil stocks are expected near 1.45 billion lbs, down from 1.501 billion in June. A crush result above expectations would reinforce domestic demand, while a weaker figure could limit the current rally.
China’s Sinograin is also scheduled to auction another 360,000 MT of imported soybeans on Wednesday. Chinese purchases were consistent last week, but continued buying will be needed to offset seasonal pressure. That makes fresh Chinese demand announcements one of the most important factors for soybean direction during the week.
Fund Positioning Could Amplify This Week’s Moves
Managed money remains heavily involved across the grain complex. In CBOT wheat, funds increased their net short by 7,615 contracts to 31,401 contracts, while KC wheat net longs were reduced to 27,662 contracts. Corn managed money remained net long 166,770 contracts, while soybean funds held a net long of 101,362 contracts after cutting 24,104 contracts from the position during the week ending August 11.
These positions leave the markets sensitive to fresh weather, export and geopolitical headlines. A renewed escalation in the Black Sea could force additional wheat buying, while stronger-than-expected crop-tour results could pressure corn and soybeans. Conversely, evidence of flooding, yield losses or continued Chinese purchasing could strengthen the bullish case in the row crops.
Wheat: Monday Starts Lower Despite Persistent Black Sea Risk
Sep ’26 CBOT wheat closed Friday at $6.74 3/4/bu, up 22 cents, and is currently down 7 cents Monday morning. The source does not provide an exact Monday start-of-day price, so the early session is best characterized by direction. Profit-taking and improved rainfall in parts of the southern Plains are pressuring wheat after Friday’s rally, but continued Black Sea attacks, weaker expected Russian exports and drought concerns in HRS areas continue to provide underlying support.
Corn: Futures Edge Higher as Crop Tour and Weather Take Center Stage
Sep ’26 corn closed Friday at $4.59/bu, up 11 cents, and is currently 1 3/4 cents higher Monday morning. The source does not provide an exact current Monday quote. Heavy Midwest rainfall, expectations for flooding in eastern areas, weaker French crop conditions, Black Sea risk and a softer US dollar are supporting the early move, while slower new-crop export sales remain the main demand-side restraint.
Soybeans: Early Gains Focus Attention on Rain, China and NOPA
Aug ’26 soybeans closed Friday at $11.73 3/4/bu, up 9 cents, while soybean futures are trading 4 to 5 cents higher Monday morning. The source does not provide an exact start-of-day contract quote, so the focus remains on direction and catalysts. Heavy rain across saturated areas of the Corn Belt, strong new-crop export commitments to China and expectations for a robust NOPA crush are providing support, with continued Chinese buying needed to sustain momentum against seasonal pressure.