While drought and heat are shrinking wheat and especially corn crops in Europe, sunflower and rapeseed are posting double-digit growth, and Brussels is releasing half a billion euros in emergency fertilizer aid, of which Bulgaria is receiving more than 11.6 million euros.
Copa-Cogeca forecast: a tougher year for grains
Copa-Cogeca working groups outline a divided picture for European agriculture in 2026. Total grain production in the EU-27 is expected to reach around 264 million tons, which is a decline of 6.6% compared with last year and represents a clear setback after the strong recovery recorded in 2025. The reason is not so much a contraction in acreage as lower yields across much of the Union and the sharp decline in corn, with the fertilizer crisis remaining an additional, though more limited, factor. The final results, however, remain heavily dependent on the weather, as recent heat waves, heavy rainfall, and hail may have caused more serious damage than initially expected.
Wheat, barley, and especially corn are declining
EU wheat production is expected to fall by 4.2%, with common wheat down 4.3% and durum wheat down a more moderate 2.1%. Barley is forecast to decline by 3.5%, while oats are set for a much steeper drop of 9.3%. Corn remains the hardest hit, however, with production potentially shrinking by 13.9% compared with 2025, mainly because of the expected reduction in planted area by 15.2% in France, Hungary, and Spain, where drought and heat stress are already limiting crop potential. Despite the decline, the 2026 harvest is still expected to remain above the levels of some of the most difficult recent years, but the issue of European farmers’ competitiveness is once again coming to the forefront.
Oilseeds continue to rise
In contrast to grains, the outlook for oilseeds remains significantly more positive. Total production in the EU-27 is projected at 33.3 million tons, which is 6.8% more than in 2025, driven mainly by a 6.6% expansion in planted area. The strongest increase is expected in sunflower — a double-digit 11.2% — supported both by larger acreage and better yields. Rapeseed is expected to rise by 6.4%, again due to a larger planted area, while the only exception in the sector remains soybeans, where production may fall by 4.3% despite a slight increase in cultivated area.
France: heat and drought pull wheat below 7 tons per hectare
New data from the French statistics institute Agreste show that France’s soft wheat harvest will be just under 32 million tons, 4% lower than in 2025, with the average winter wheat yield falling by half a ton to 6.93 tons per hectare. The increase in acreage of 125,000 hectares is not enough to offset the weaker yields. Barley shows a similar picture — production is expected to fall by 6.3% to 11.1 million tons, with spring barley production dropping by as much as 36%, while winter barley is growing thanks to larger acreage. In rapeseed, only the expansion of planted area — from 1.26 to 1.42 million hectares — manages to keep production at last year’s level, despite a yield drop from 3.66 to 3.26 tons per hectare.
Brussels allocates 540 million euros because of expensive fertilizers
European Union member states have approved the European Commission’s proposal for 540 million euros in emergency financial aid for agricultural producers affected by rising fertilizer and energy costs as a result of the crisis in the Middle East. Bulgaria is set to receive a package of 11,615,100 euros, while the largest sums go to France (107.1 million euros), Poland (66.6 million euros), and Germany (60.3 million euros). Member states may double or even triple the support through national co-financing up to 200%, and the funds must reach farmers no later than 28 February 2027 to help them make decisions before the new sowing season.
Polish processors turn to Romanian rapeseed
The expected decline in Poland’s rapeseed crop — to around 3.2 million tons from 3.6 million tons in the previous season — opens the door to imports from neighboring countries, and Romania is emerging as a key supplier with a potential export surplus of around 1.5 million tons in the 2026/2027 season. Processing capacity in Poland already reaches around 4 million tons per year and may soon exceed 4.5 million tons, making oilseed imports almost inevitable. For Romanian producers, this means growing interest from processors, but also the need for a careful selling strategy given exchange movements and transport costs immediately after harvest.