Reports of a proposed 10-day ceasefire between the US and Iran are tempering the war premium that drove Monday's rally, even as corn and soybean crop conditions beat expectations and keep both markets holding most of their recent gains.

Grains open mixed to lower Tuesday, giving back a portion of Monday's sharp gains as the market digests better-than-expected corn and soybean ratings alongside early signs that Middle East tensions could be nearing a pause.

Ceasefire Reports Cool the Middle East Risk Premium

Prices across the ag space are trading mixed in two-sided trade after reports emerged that intermediaries are proposing a 10-day ceasefire to resume peace negotiations between the US and Iran. US military forces have carried out strikes against Iranian targets for ten consecutive days, with Iran continuing to attack US forces in the region, but the ceasefire headline is the first sign of potential de-escalation after more than a week of steady conflict. Spot WTI crude is nonetheless up $1.40 near $83.90, holding within Monday's range, while RBOB is up $0.02 per gallon and heating oil is steady, leaving energy-linked biofuel demand largely intact for now.

Black Sea and Hormuz Chokepoints Remain Shut

Both the Strait of Hormuz and the Kerch Strait remain largely closed to commercial traffic, keeping the physical disruption to Black Sea wheat exports firmly in place even as the ceasefire headlines introduce fresh uncertainty into the wheat rally. Supply disruptions out of the Black Sea region, combined with expectations for lower US and EU production, are still expected to keep wheat's path of least resistance higher over time, though the immediate reaction Tuesday is a pullback after Monday's sell-off already erased some of last week's gains.

Crop Ratings Beat Expectations for Corn and Soybeans, Miss for Spring Wheat

Tuesday's price action is being shaped heavily by NASS Crop Progress data. Corn conditions slipped just 1 point to 67% good-to-excellent, a smaller decline than the 2-point drop the market expected, with 59% of the crop silking, 5 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Soybean ratings actually improved 1 point to 66% good-to-excellent against expectations for a decline, with 66% of the crop blooming and 32% setting pods, both running ahead of normal pace. Spring wheat told the opposite story, with conditions falling 5 points to 53% good-to-excellent, a steeper drop than the 3-point decline expected, pressuring the spring wheat complex even as winter wheat harvest advanced to 74% complete, 3 points ahead of last year.

Wheat Export Shipments Slump Sharply

USDA's FGIS data show wheat export shipments totaling just 231,991 MT for the week ending July 16, well below the week prior and less than a third of the same week last year, leaving marketing-year exports for 2025/26 running 29.5% below the same period a year ago. That steep shortfall in outbound wheat volume stands in contrast to the physical supply risk narrative and is adding a bearish counterweight to the Black Sea-driven rally, at least in the near term.

Corn and Soybean Inspections Diverge Sharply

Corn export inspections told a strong story, with shipments of 1.55 MMT in the week of July 16 essentially flat from the week prior but up 57.36% from the same week last year, pushing marketing-year shipments to 73.77 MMT, 25.42% above the same period last year. Soybean inspections moved the opposite direction, falling 33.72% from the week prior to 296,972 MT and landing 21.24% below the same week last year, with marketing-year shipments now 17.53% behind last year's pace, a divergence that continues to favor corn's demand narrative over soybeans' in the near term.

Trump Announces 50% Tariff on Canadian Goods

President Trump stated late Monday that the US is imposing 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods, citing trade discrimination, with energy and potash both exempt from the measure. While the direct grain market impact is not yet quantified, the move adds another layer of trade-policy uncertainty to a complex already navigating tariff headlines out of Brazil, with potash's exemption notably shielding a key fertilizer input from added cost pressure.

US Weather Offers Mixed Relief

South-central and eastern Iowa saw healthy rainfall over the past 24 hours ahead of a cooling front, and much of the northern Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt should see normal-to-below-normal temperatures over the next few days before rebounding this weekend. A system is likely to bring scattered rain into the Western Corn Belt midweek, but the broader picture remains a concern, with the week-two outlook holding in a hot, dry pattern that is mostly favorable for the central and Eastern Corn Belt but not for the Western Corn Belt. Western Europe remains hot and dry while the east sees cooler conditions with scattered precipitation, and dryness across Argentina and west-central Brazil favors corn harvest even as moderate-to-heavy rain is expected in southern Brazil.

Soybean Demand and Crush Margins Stay Supportive

US Gulf FOB soybean offers remain $0.10 to $0.20 above Brazilian offers through Sept '26 before slipping to a $0.05 discount by Nov '26, and continued demand interest from China and other buyers, layered onto an uncertain Western Corn Belt weather outlook, is expected to keep soybeans' path of least resistance tilted higher over time. Crush margins rebounded $0.06 to $3.13 1/2 per bushel, providing an additional source of underlying support even as front-month soybean oil eased back Tuesday morning.

Wheat: Ceasefire Headlines Cap Black Sea-Driven Gains

CGO Sept '26 opens $0.02 3/4 lower at $6.71 1/4, KC Sept '26 is $0.02 lower at $7.21 3/4, and MIAX Sept '26 is $0.01 lower at $6.91 1/4, extending Monday's close of $6.74 for CBOT Sept '26, down 8 3/4 cents on the session. The pullback follows a Monday session that saw Chicago SRW fall 4 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents and KC HRW drop 4 1/4 to 8 1/2 cents, with reports of a proposed US-Iran ceasefire tempering the Black Sea-driven risk premium even as supply disruption out of the region and lower US and EU production keep the broader bias tilted higher.

Corn: Holding Near Highs as Ratings Beat Expectations

Sept '26 and Dec '26 both open $0.01 lower at $4.48 1/2 and $4.72, respectively, essentially holding Monday's close of $4.49 1/2 for Sept '26, up 4 3/4 cents on the session. Corn conditions slipping only 1 point to 67% good-to-excellent against expectations for a 2-point decline, combined with silking progress running ahead of the five-year average, is offsetting the modest overnight pullback and keeping corn's tone firm into the session.

Soybeans: Consolidating Near $12.26 After Monday's Surge

Aug '26 opens $0.05 lower at $12.21 while Nov '26 is steady at $12.26, both holding within Monday's range after a session that saw contracts post gains of 20 to 23 1/4 cents, with Aug '26 closing at $12.26, up 21 1/2 cents. Improved soybean condition ratings, continued Chinese demand interest, and firmer crush margins are helping the complex hold most of Monday's advance despite the early pullback, with next resistance for old crop seen at $12.58 1/4, the May-24 high on the weekly continuation chart.