Longer-range forecasts easing the heat threat and crop conditions holding steady with the historical average have removed the marginal urgency from Monday's weather-premium buying — while wheat holds firm independently on continued Don-Azov restrictions and China's June soybean import pace reaching an all-time monthly high of 13.55 MMT.

Tuesday's session has opened lower across corn and soybeans as the longer-range weather outlook turns less threatening and Monday's crop progress data reveals conditions that, while holding at historical average levels, delivered no upside surprises. Wheat is the exception, adding 10 to 12 cents across all three classes by midday as the Don-Azov disruption remains live and Russian grain exporters' assurances of meeting commitments are only partially calming the supply disruption concern. The session's two most significant data releases — CONAB's Brazilian crop estimates and China's June soybean import figures — are pulling in opposite directions: Brazilian corn raised a further 1.27 MMT to a larger supply signal, while China's record June soybean imports represent the most bullish single demand print in this market in years.

China Sets an All-Time Soybean Import Record at 13.55 MMT in June

China imported 13.55 MMT of soybeans in June — an all-time monthly record, up 15% from May 2026 and up 10.5% from June 2025. In the first half of 2026, total Chinese soybean imports reached 49.4 MMT, up 1.5% year-on-year. This is a demand print of extraordinary magnitude for the global soybean complex: an all-time monthly record demonstrates that at current price levels, Chinese demand is not being rationed but actually accelerating. The implication for the US marketing year is direct — if the second half of 2026 maintains even a fraction of this pace, the probability of reaching or exceeding the USDA's annual Chinese import target rises substantially. US FOB offers at the Gulf currently sit at a $0.30 premium over Brazilian offers for August-September shipment — a widening of the US-Brazil basis that should ordinarily divert some Chinese demand back toward Brazil, but the all-time import record confirms Chinese buyers have been absorbing US origin at current pricing without resistance.

Corn and Soybean Ratings Hold at Historical Average; No Bullish Surprises to Sustain Monday's Premium

Corn conditions improved 1 percentage point to 68% good/excellent — in line with expectations and slightly above the historical average — with the Brugler500 index rising 2 points to 371. Ratings improved in 14 states, with Ohio gaining 9 points, Kentucky 8, and North Dakota 6, while South Dakota fell 7 points and North Carolina dropped 7. At 34% silking versus 30% on the five-year average and 32% a year ago, the crop is developing faster than normal — a pattern that places a larger portion of the crop directly in the path of this week's heat window than would be typical for mid-July. Soybean conditions also improved 1 percentage point to 65% good/excellent, matching expectations and slightly above historical average, with 50% of the crop blooming — six percentage points ahead of the five-year average — and 19% setting pods, five points ahead of normal. The accelerated development pace in both crops means the heat-stress window is being compressed into an earlier date than the calendar suggests, and the critical question is whether this week's much-above-normal temperatures land on corn that is already past peak pollination sensitivity or still within it. The crop progress data alone neither confirms nor denies the heat damage — that verdict arrives in next week's ratings.

Longer-Range Forecast Moderation Removes Marginal Weather Premium

The primary driver of Tuesday's selling pressure is the GFS model showing that much-above-normal temperatures are expected to ease by late this weekend into early next week, with better rain prospects developing for the Northwestern Corn Belt by next week. How widespread those rains are and how effectively they are distributed across Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and the Dakotas will be the defining agronomic event of the second half of July. Rainfall over the past 24 hours was limited to the Gulf coast and Southeast, with the next five days continuing to favour the Southern Midwest and Gulf coast region. The Western Corn Belt remains largely dry. The longer-range improvement takes the edge off the acute heat-stress narrative from Monday without resolving the underlying deficit in the central and Western Corn Belt. September corn fills its Sunday overnight gap, retreating to $4.35 with December at $4.57¼, initial support at Friday's December low of $4.47½.

Don-Azov Disruption Continues — But Partial Passage Restores Some Russian Flow

While Russian grain shipments remain restricted through the Don-Azov channel, vessels can now transit the Sea of Azov — they simply cannot exit through the Kerch Strait, which links the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. Russia's Union of Grain Exporters maintains it will meet its export commitments, and the Kerch Strait bottleneck appears to have partially eased rather than fully reopened. For wheat specifically, this is the most nuanced piece of the Black Sea story this week: the disruption has not been eliminated, but it has been partially mitigated by alternative routing across the Sea of Azov to other loading points. The market is processing this as a reason to trim some of the Don-Azov premium built into wheat over the past week without fully abandoning the supply disruption thesis. CGO September at $6.46¾ — up 11½ cents at Tuesday's midday — is still pressing higher because the channel restriction persists even if severity has moderated.

CONAB Raises Brazilian Corn to 141.73 MMT; Soybeans 0.32 MMT Higher to 180.57 MMT

CONAB's monthly update raised Brazilian 2025/26 corn production 1.27 MMT to 141.73 MMT, with the second crop responsible for 1.56 MMT of the increase at 109.43 MMT. Brazilian soybean production was also raised 0.32 MMT to 180.57 MMT. Both revisions are modestly bearish additions to the South American supply narrative — Brazil's corn crop is now at a level that, if confirmed in final harvest data, would be the largest in the country's history, and the soybean revision continues the pattern of incremental upward adjustments that have characterised the past several months. For corn, the CONAB increase partially offsets the US weather premium that has been building since Monday. For soybeans, the 0.32 MMT soybean increase is small enough to be absorbed by the all-time Chinese import record without fundamentally changing the price outlook.

Spring Wheat Mixed: North Dakota and Minnesota Improve, Montana and Idaho Deteriorate

Spring wheat conditions rose 1 percentage point to 58% good/excellent, though the Brugler500 index fell 3 points to 351 as a deterioration in the distribution of ratings pulled the index lower despite the headline improvement. Montana fell 18 points — the same dramatic single-week decline seen earlier this season — Idaho dropped 7 points, and South Dakota slipped 7, while Minnesota gained 8 and North Dakota improved 6. The poor/very poor share rose 3 percentage points to 10% and the fair category fell 4 points — movements suggesting that while the headline good/excellent is stable, conditions are quietly polarising between states that are benefiting from moisture and those that are stressed. With 72% of the crop headed and in line with the five-year average, the crop is advancing into grain fill with this bifurcated condition profile, and the second half of July weather will determine whether the stressed states recover or further deteriorate. MPLS spring wheat is up 5 to 6 cents at Tuesday's midday.

EU Wheat Export Pace Lags Year-Ago; Winter Wheat Harvest at 67%

EU wheat exports in the first 12 days of July totalled 214,904 MT, down from 260,897 MT at the same point last year — a year-over-year lag that is consistent with the EU's hot and dry summer reducing available export supplies from the French, German, and central European crops. Winter wheat harvest in the US advanced to 67% complete, slightly below expectations but still 6 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 61% and above the 62% harvested at this point last year. The faster-than-normal harvest pace has been a consistent feature of 2026's winter wheat campaign, driven by the historically poor crop conditions that induced rapid maturity. With two-thirds of the winter wheat crop already in the bin, the primary price discovery for winter wheat shifts increasingly from production risk to export demand — an area where the marketing year total of 1.893 MMT remains 17.32% below year-ago, a persistent structural drag on Chicago SRW's ability to sustain rally momentum.

NOPA June Crush Expected Wednesday at 204 Million Bushels; Soy Oil Stocks Seen Lower

Wednesday's NOPA crush release carries meaningful information for the processing economics narrative that has been a persistent drag on soy oil and crush margins throughout June and July. June crush is expected to show approximately 204 million bushels processed among NOPA members, down from May's 208.8 million but above last June's 185 million — a year-over-year improvement that, if realised, would confirm the underlying soybean demand story from the processing sector. Bean oil stocks are expected to slip to 1.653 billion pounds, down from 1.735 billion in May but up from 1.384 billion a year ago. Crush margins at $3.02/bu overnight are recovering from the extreme lows seen earlier in the month, and a moderately constructive NOPA report would support the argument that the worst of the crush margin deterioration is behind the market. August soy oil reached a 5-week high in Tuesday's early trade before reversing slightly to 72.72, off 10 points — a near-term consolidation after the energy-driven surge rather than a trend change.

Wheat

Sep '26 CBOT SRW wheat is at $6.46¾ at Tuesday's midday, up 11½ cents — the session's clear outperformer across the grain complex. July futures expire Tuesday. KC Sep is 10 to 12 cents firmer at midday, with MPLS Sep up 5 to 6 cents. The morning outlook showed CGO Sep down 4¾ cents at $6.30½ and KC Sep down 5½ cents at $6.60½ before the session reversed strongly — a classic intraday reversal from early selling pressure to a firm close attempt. Don-Azov partial easing has reduced but not removed the Russian export disruption, while winter wheat harvest at 67% — 6 points ahead of normal — and US winter production confirmed at 990 million bushels provide the fundamental floor. EU export pace running below year-ago, French conditions continuing in a hot and dry pattern, and spring wheat conditions bifurcating with the poor/VP share rising to 10% collectively maintain the global supply tightening narrative. The marketing year export total of 1.893 MMT remaining 17.32% below year-ago is the key demand headwind.

Corn

Jul '26 CBOT corn expires Tuesday; Sep '26 is at $4.35, down 6 cents from Monday, having gapped lower at the open and quickly filled the gap from Sunday night. Dec '26 is at $4.57¼, also down 6 cents, with initial support at Friday's low of $4.47½. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price is 2 cents lower at $4.08. Corn conditions held at 68% good/excellent with the Brugler500 up 2 to 371 — steady to slightly constructive data that does not validate the extreme heat premium priced in Monday. With 34% of the crop silking — four percentage points ahead of normal — and the GFS model showing temperature relief arriving by late weekend, the market is correct to compress the weather premium. CONAB raising Brazilian corn 1.27 MMT to 141.73 MMT adds a global supply headwind. The question for the rest of the week is whether the Corn Belt rain prospects the GFS model suggests for next week materialise widely enough to complete the premium unwind, or whether patchy distribution maintains some floor.

Soybeans

Jul '26 CBOT soybeans expire at today's close; Aug '26 is at $11.90, down 6¾ cents, with Nov '26 at $11.86, down 8¾ cents — both contracts having rejected trade back above $12.00 for a second consecutive attempt this month. Support for August sits at its 100-day moving average of $11.72 and for November at $11.70. The CmdtyView national average cash bean price is 3 cents lower at $11.47¾. August soymeal is down $2.20 at $315, near its 50 and 100-day moving averages. August soy oil is at 72.72, reversing slightly after scratching a 5-week high, with crush margins at $3.02/bu. China's all-time June import record of 13.55 MMT is the most bullish single demand print the soybean market has received this summer — but the price reaction confirms that the near-term ceiling is being set by the $12.00 technical rejection, CONAB's slightly higher Brazilian soybean estimate of 180.57 MMT, and Wednesday's NOPA crush release rather than by the fundamental demand story, which remains among the most constructive in years.