Core Market Drivers

Wheat was the clear leader on Wednesday, with all three U.S. classes closing higher. Chicago SRW futures climbed 5 to 9 cents, supported by positioning ahead of Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report and a firmer technical tone after recent consolidation. Expectations for 200,000 to 500,000 MT in old crop wheat bookings provided underlying support.

Global wheat supply adjustments continue to shape sentiment. While U.S. carryout remains elevated at 931 mbu following Tuesday’s WASDE, tighter global stocks at 277.51 MMT and active export competition from key origins helped fuel buying interest. The market appears to be focusing more on trade flows than domestic inventory levels.

European supply developments added nuance to the wheat outlook. French soft wheat exports outside the EU were trimmed to 7.2 MMT for 2025/26, down 0.3 MMT from January, while ending stocks were revised higher to 3.05 MMT. At the same time, EU soft wheat exports to date reached 13.43 MMT, slightly ahead of last year, reinforcing steady demand signals.

Weather conditions in the U.S. Plains are broadly supportive for wheat. Above-normal temperatures and improving moisture prospects reduce winterkill risk and stabilize crop conditions heading into spring. However, dryness pockets remain, and markets continue to monitor soil moisture trends closely.

Corn futures closed fractionally to 1 1/2 cents lower in the nearby contracts, though new crop posted modest gains. Despite Tuesday’s supportive WASDE, which cut U.S. ending stocks to 2.117 bbu, traders showed caution amid stable South American production and muted fresh bullish catalysts.

Export demand remains a key stabilizing force for corn. USDA confirmed a private sale of 230,560 MT to unknown destinations, reinforcing export strength. Meanwhile, Brazilian February corn exports are projected at 953,217 MT by ANEC, underscoring active global trade flows but also increasing competition.

Ethanol data provided mixed signals. Weekly production rebounded sharply by 154,000 bpd to 1.11 million bpd, indicating strong processing demand for corn. However, rising ethanol stocks and softer exports tempered enthusiasm, keeping corn’s gains limited.

Soybeans posted moderate gains of 1 to 4 3/4 cents, supported by strength in soymeal and continued demand resilience. Front-month contracts advanced despite slightly weaker soy oil, reflecting steady crush margins and stable U.S. ending stocks at 350 mbu.

South American production updates remain central to the soybean narrative. The Rosario Grains Exchange raised Argentina’s soybean crop estimate to 48 MMT, while Brazilian export forecasts for February were lifted to 11.71 MMT. With CONAB data due Thursday, traders are balancing strong export flows against elevated global stock expectations.

Vegetable oil markets continue to influence oilseed trade. Palm oil production outlooks for 2026 suggest slower growth in Malaysia and modest expansion in Indonesia, while global output may tighten in coming years. However, rising soybean supplies and competitive pricing dynamics limit sustained bullish momentum in the oil complex.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat closed at $5.37 1/4, up 9 cents. Gains were driven by export optimism, firm global trade activity, and improving Plains weather conditions, despite elevated U.S. ending stocks.

Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn settled at $4.27 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents. Strong ethanol production and a confirmed export sale were offset by steady South American production and cautious positioning ahead of fresh export data.

Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.24, up 1 1/2 cents. Modest gains reflected firm crush demand, rising Argentine crop estimates, and steady export expectations ahead of Thursday’s USDA report.