Chicago grains finished Tuesday with wheat split between soft red weakness and hard red strength, corn modestly higher, and soybeans rallying into the close. Markets weighed Southern Plains moisture splits, stronger EU export competition, surging fertilizer prices tied to Middle East tensions, and shifting South American crop prospects.

Wheat trade was mixed across the three exchanges. Chicago SRW futures closed 2 to 4 cents lower, while Kansas City HRW gained 3 to 4 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 3 to 4 cents. The divergence reflects improving precipitation prospects in SRW territory contrasted with limited rainfall expected in western HRW country, keeping hard red yield risk elevated.

The Kansas Crop Progress report showed winter wheat at 58% good/excellent, down from 61% in early February, signaling some deterioration as dormancy ends. That decline lends support to HRW contracts, particularly in areas where soil moisture remains thin ahead of green-up.

EU wheat exports reached 15.77 MMT from July 1 to March 1, up 1.36 MMT year-on-year, reinforcing competitive global supply. Meanwhile, Australia’s wheat output is estimated at 36 MMT, slightly below USDA’s 37 MMT February figure, underscoring ample global availability despite localized stress.

In the Black Sea, the suspension of oil loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk port after a Ukrainian drone strike highlights ongoing geopolitical risk in the corridor. While grain infrastructure was not directly targeted, elevated tension keeps a volatility premium in wheat markets.

Corn futures posted gains of fractionally to 2 cents across most contracts. The national average cash corn price firmed by 1 cent to $4.06 3/4, with crude oil strength continuing to provide underlying support.

USDA confirmed a private export sale of 196,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations, reinforcing active demand. Additional South Korean tenders totaling 133,000 MT overnight added to the constructive export tone.

Ethanol demand remains a limiting factor. January corn use for ethanol totaled 460.95 million bushels, down 1.49% year-on-year and below trade expectations, tempering enthusiasm despite strong export inspections.

South American corn dynamics remain mixed. Brazil’s first crop harvest is 36% complete, well behind last year’s 46% pace, and second crop planting stands at 66% versus 80% last year. Safras projects national corn production at 141.71 MMT, slightly below its prior forecast, while regional weather remains uneven.

Soybeans closed 5 to 7 cents higher in the front months, reversing early-session weakness. Soymeal gained 20 cents to $2.20, while soybean oil rose 6 to 12 points, as traders reacted to strong crush data and ongoing geopolitical developments.

January soybean crush reached 227.9 million bushels, 7.2% above last year and above expectations, signaling solid processing demand. However, soybean oil stocks increased 33.9% year-on-year to 2.43 billion pounds, limiting the bullish impact of strong crush margins.

Brazil’s soybean harvest stands at 39%, the slowest pace in five years, with AgRural and StoneX trimming 2025/26 production forecasts to 178 MMT and 177.8 MMT respectively. Despite downward revisions tied to Rio Grande do Sul weather stress, output is still projected at record levels, keeping global supply ample.

Fertilizer markets added a new macro layer. Urea prices jumped as much as 13% following escalating Middle East conflict affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global nitrogen supplies. Higher input costs could pressure producer margins and influence planting decisions in the months ahead.

May ’26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.74, down 3 1/4 cents, with SRW pressured by wetter forecasts and HRW supported by western Plains dryness and declining Kansas condition ratings.

May ’26 Corn closed at $4.46 1/2, up 3/4 cent, supported by private export sales and crude oil strength, though capped by softer ethanol usage data.

May ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.70 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents, as strong crush figures and late-session buying outweighed rising oil stocks and ongoing South American supply revisions.