Core Market Drivers

Wheat is leading early trade Wednesday, building on mixed performance from the prior session as markets continue to digest Tuesday’s WASDE revisions. Although U.S. ending stocks were raised by 5 mbu to 931 mbu, global wheat stocks were reduced to 277.51 MMT, below trade expectations, offering a supportive undertone for prices this morning.

Weather developments in the U.S. Plains are reinforcing wheat’s firm tone. Forecasts calling for rains in the southern Plains are expected to improve soil moisture for dormant winter wheat, reducing spring stress risk and supporting near-term sentiment. Limited cold threats across major wheat regions further diminish downside weather risk.

Corn futures are fractionally to 1 1/4 cents lower early Wednesday, giving back a portion of Tuesday’s post-WASDE stability. While U.S. ending stocks were cut by 100 mbu to 2.117 bbu on stronger export projections, traders appear cautious as Brazilian and Argentine production figures remain unchanged and global supply expectations stay ample.

Export flows remain a supportive pillar for corn. ANEC projects Brazilian February corn exports at 953,217 MT, up sharply from prior estimates, highlighting active global trade channels. However, steady South American production and lack of new bullish surprises are limiting further upside momentum.

Soybeans are trading near unchanged, with front-month contracts slightly softer while new crop November edges higher. Tuesday’s 11 to 13 cent rally was fueled by firm U.S. stocks at 350 mbu and upward revisions to Brazilian production at 180 MMT. The absence of additional bullish catalysts this morning has tempered follow-through buying.

Brazil’s harvest pace remains a focal point. AgRural estimates 16% of the soybean crop has been harvested, slightly ahead of last year, though heavy rains in central regions have complicated logistics and fieldwork. A drier trend in central-west Brazil over the next 10 days may accelerate harvest progress and second-crop corn planting, adding supply confidence.

Vegetable oil markets continue to exert cross-commodity influence. Malaysian palm oil stocks fell 7.72% month-on-month to 2.815 MMT, lending underlying support to soy oil and the broader oilseed complex. However, longer-term projections point to rising competition from soybean and sunflower oils, tempering sustained bullish pressure.

Global trade and policy dynamics remain in the background. Ongoing dialogue between U.S. and Chinese officials, combined with China’s stable crop outlook and limited cold risks, suggest near-term demand stability, though broader vegetable oil trade realignments continue to shift competitive flows between palm and soy.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat is trading at $5.28 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents early Wednesday after closing Tuesday down 1/2 cent. Gains are supported by lower global wheat stocks and improving Plains moisture conditions despite slightly higher U.S. carryout.

Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn is at $4.28 3/4, down 3/4 cent in early trade following Tuesday’s unchanged close. The recent 100 mbu cut to U.S. ending stocks offers underlying support, though steady South American production is capping upside.

Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans are trading at $11.22 1/2, down 1 cent after Tuesday’s 11 3/4 cent rally. Prices are consolidating as markets balance higher Brazilian output estimates with firm domestic stocks and resilient oilseed demand.