Core Market Drivers

Tuesday’s session was dominated by the USDA’s February WASDE, which delivered a bullish surprise for corn and a neutral-to-supportive tone for soybeans, while wheat faced a more balanced adjustment. Markets reacted swiftly to changes in U.S. carryout projections and updated global production estimates, reshaping sentiment into the close.

Corn received the most constructive headline, as USDA cut U.S. ending stocks by 100 mbu to 2.117 billion bushels, driven entirely by a higher export projection. The reduction signaled stronger external demand and reinforced the pace seen in recent export inspections, supporting prices despite mixed global supply adjustments.

World corn ending stocks were lowered by 1.93 MMT to 288.98 MMT, adding further support to the market. Although Brazil and Argentina production figures were left unchanged, the tighter global balance sheet provided underlying stability and helped corn futures hold near unchanged levels by settlement.

Soybeans closed firmly higher, as WASDE left U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 350 mbu, avoiding any bearish surprise. The market instead focused on strong demand signals and upward revisions to Brazil’s production, which rose 2 MMT to 180 MMT, while Argentina remained at 48.5 MMT.

Despite the higher Brazilian crop projection, soybean futures rallied as traders concentrated on robust export expectations and ongoing China engagement. A recent private sale to China and sustained crush strength helped reinforce confidence in demand, lifting front-month contracts double digits by the close.

ANEC’s forecast for Brazilian soybean exports at 11.71 MMT in February underscored the scale of global supply flows, yet did not cap gains. Instead, strong domestic and export demand signals outweighed supply concerns, particularly with soymeal and soy oil also posting gains.

Wheat markets digested a more nuanced WASDE outcome. U.S. ending stocks were raised by 5 mbu to 931 mbu due to lower food use, a modestly bearish development. However, global wheat stocks were reduced to 277.51 MMT, down 0.74 MMT from January and below trade expectations, limiting downside pressure.

International adjustments reflected shifting trade flows. Argentina exports were raised by 2 MMT, tightening its stocks, while EU exports were trimmed and imports raised, lifting EU stocks. Canadian stocks were slightly reduced on stronger exports, reflecting active global competition.

Weather developments added a supportive undertone but did not dominate price action. Rains in the southern Plains are expected to improve dormant wheat conditions, while a drying trend in central-west Brazil following recent heavy rainfall may aid harvest progress and second-crop planting.

Vegetable oil markets continued to provide cross-commodity influence. Falling Malaysian palm oil stocks and firm soy oil prices contributed to strength in the oilseed complex, even as longer-term projections for increased South American soy oil supply and competitive pricing dynamics remain a balancing factor.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat closed at $5.28 1/4, down 1/2 cent. The increase in U.S. ending stocks offset a modest reduction in global stocks, keeping futures slightly softer despite strong export shipments.

Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn settled at $4.28 3/4, unchanged on the day. A 100 mbu cut to U.S. ending stocks and lower global carryout provided support, balancing steady South American production estimates.

Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.22 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents. Firm gains were fueled by steady U.S. stocks, increased Brazilian export expectations, and sustained demand momentum within the soy complex.