Wheat

At the Chicago open on Thursday, December ’25 CBOT wheat hovered around $5.36/bu, roughly 2 cents softer from last settle, as the complex faded a touch after Wednesday’s mixed-to-firmer finish and sizeable open-interest reductions in SRW. Early tone leaned defensive ahead of WASDE, with tenders and EU/French updates helping frame the international backdrop.

Corn

December ’25 corn began the session essentially flat near $4.35¼/bu, steady to fractionally softer after closing up 3¼ cents on Wednesday. Traders eyed today’s delayed EIA ethanol read (holiday shift) and Friday’s balance-sheet tweaks; Brazil’s CONAB marginally lifted its corn output estimate, adding to a broadly well-supplied feel.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans started firmer around $11.20½/bu, up ~5¾ cents versus yesterday’s close, as meal strength and a steadier vegoil backdrop met ongoing U.S.–Brazil FOB differentials and export-program watchfulness. Open interest added notably on Wednesday, reflecting fresh participation into report week.

Chicago steadies for WASDE: what the trade expects

With USDA set to publish the delayed November reports on Friday, surveys lean toward slightly larger U.S. wheat and corn ending stocks versus September (wheat ~867 mbu; corn ~2.136 bbu) and soybeans near ~304 mbu. Markets are calibrating around those waypoints after September grain-stocks revisions and amid still-solid cash indications.

Brazil nudges crops higher; planting pace stays constructive

CONAB ticked 2025/26 corn to ~138.8–138.84 MMT and held soybeans near 177.6 MMT, while first-crop corn sowing is largely on schedule nationally despite lingering wet pockets in parts of the Southeast. The Center-South summer corn and soybean cadence keeps South American supply prospects supportive into year-end, barring a weather break.

Argentina’s “mega” wheat harvest resets the bar

Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat to a record ~24.5 MMT, citing exceptional yields as harvest advances. Solid soil moisture and better in-season disease management underpin the upgrade; corn and soybean production ideas were maintained, with planting progress continuing.

U.S. ethanol: eyes on today’s print after record streak

Analysts look for weekly production to ease to ~1.102m b/d with stocks near 22.63m bbl after last week’s record-high run. Even a modest dip would leave the energy/biofuel linkage a supportive current for corn into late November, pending any policy or rack-pricing surprises.

EU/France and tenders: steady flow, contained risk

EU soft-wheat exports since July 1 are tracking ~4% below last year near 8.4 MMT, corn imports down ~25% y/y, while France nudged soft-wheat output to 33.3 MMT and trimmed corn to 13.2 MMT. Fresh demand signals included a South Korean wheat purchase and overnight Asian corn business (SK/ Taiwan), keeping baselines supported without stoking price risk.

Black Sea signals: ample grain, firmer FOB floor

Russia has harvested 140+ MMT of grain (bunker), and 12.5% FOB wheat for mid-December edged to ~$232–233/t as seasonal storage and carry costs firm the floor. Eastern Black Sea dryness continues to delay dormancy, leaving establishment risks elevated despite warmth.

Palm-oil shock absorbers ripple into vegoils

Malaysia’s 2025 crude palm oil output is seen topping 20 MMT for the first time, even as other outlooks flag flat global growth in 2026 on La Niña/aging trees. India’s 2024/25 import mix pivoted toward record soyoil at the expense of palm, while Indonesia weighs B50 timing and export diversification—factors that keep soyoil/palm spreads and crush margins in flux.

Weather map: U.S. warmer, Brazil split, Argentina drying

The U.S. turns much warmer with limited moisture (helpful for fieldwork and winter-wheat seeding), Mississippi River levels remain low, and storm frequency could pick up next week. Central/Northern Brazil stays showery and cooler as fronts stall north; Southern Brazil may trend drier after a very wet start. Argentina dries short-term, aiding corn/soy planting before late-month rains; Europe turns cooler/wetter while the eastern Black Sea stays moisture-short.

Animal-protein side note: Germany’s bird-flu spike

Germany reported its highest bird-flu outbreaks in three years with culls >1 million birds and “no relief in sight.” While analysts see limited immediate meat/egg price impact, sustained spread can alter regional feed dynamics at the margin via poultry flow constraints and trade frictions.