Early Monday trade is leaning supportive across the grain complex, with wheat and soybeans firmer and corn modestly higher as markets reopen into a shortened holiday week and digest renewed Black Sea supply-chain headlines.

A reported drone attack on infrastructure and vessels at Russia’s Taman Black Sea port is the main geopolitical spark to start the session. The port handles grains and other commodities, and any perceived risk to loadouts or nearby logistics can add a near-term risk premium—most directly to wheat—especially when liquidity is thin and traders are sensitive to export-flow disruptions.

Weather remains a second pillar for early price direction. Abnormal warmth is set to spread over the U.S. Plains this week, accelerating snowmelt and, with limited precipitation, leaning toward further soil-moisture deterioration in winter wheat areas. Warm spells can also reduce winter hardiness if wheat “wakes up” ahead of a colder snap later, increasing sensitivity to January cold risks.

River logistics are also on the radar. Midwest warmth is melting remaining snowpack.The resulting boost to Mississippi River water levels is expected to be limited, and a broader dry trend into early January keeps transportation concerns alive—an undercurrent that can influence basis and interior movement even when futures are driven by headlines.

In South America, the near-term forecast splits the map. Well-placed rains in Brazil over the next couple of weeks are described as broadly beneficial for corn and soybeans (especially as beans move into pod-fill), while the Argentina Pampas are flagged to remain dry, a setup that can increasingly stress corn/soybeans and reintroduce yield-risk pricing if dryness persists.

Trade and demand signals are mixed, but highly relevant today because USDA’s weekly export sales schedule has shifted: the report originally due Dec. 26 is rescheduled to Dec. 23, with additional holiday-related adjustments following the newly announced federal holiday closures. With the market expecting catch-up data (including the week ending Dec. 4), the report timing becomes a focal point for intraday volatility.

On soybeans, the tape carries a push-pull message: USDA confirmed 134,000 tons of U.S. soybean exports to China for 2025/26 on Friday, yet customs data indicates China imported no U.S. soybeans for a third straight month in November, with Argentina-origin arrivals sharply higher. Traders will continue to weigh near-term arrival patterns against reported post-truce purchases and shipping lags.

Brazil’s corn balance sheet signal tilted slightly bearish/neutral on production, with Safras trimming its 2025/26 corn output estimate to 142.88 MMT (down from 143.56 MMT) as yield expectations eased. Meanwhile, Cepea commentary points to seasonally slower Brazilian corn buying and downward price pressure in some regions, even as recent rains brought relief for summer crop development.

Vegetable oil and meal markets are active side-players today. Malaysian palm oil was higher overnight, while Indonesia’s November palm oil exports fell month-on-month—yet a newly signed Indonesia–EAEU free trade agreement is framed as supportive for longer-run palm oil and derivative exports. In soy-products, it is worthy to highlight the Brazilian soybean meal premiums and prices at the highest in eight months due to restocking needs and tight spot availability, partially offset by lower Argentine export taxes that improve Argentina’s competitiveness.

Positioning adds another layer for a holiday week. We should also note that wheat specs adding to net shorts, corn specs trimming net longs, and soybean managed money cutting net length sharply (as of the cited reporting weeks), alongside notable open interest changes—conditions that can amplify moves if headlines force short-covering in wheat or renewed liquidation in beans.

Wheat: Early Monday strength is building with Mar ’26 CBOT wheat last reported up 6 3/4 cents from Friday’s $5.09 3/4 close (trading around $5.16 1/2). Black Sea disruption risk (Taman), Plains warmth/dryness implications for winter wheat hardiness, and holiday-thin liquidity are the key supportive threads into the open.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is firmer early, up 3 cents versus Friday’s $4.43 3/4 close (around $4.46 3/4). The market is balancing South America’s contrasting weather (beneficial Brazil rains vs. Argentina dryness), a slightly lower Safras Brazil corn output estimate, and the near-term impact of the rescheduled USDA export sales report.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are higher early, up 5 3/4 cents from Friday’s $10.49 1/4 close (around $10.55). Support is coming from product-market firmness (meal premiums/restocking) and the confirmed U.S. sale to China, while the broader backdrop remains cautious given China’s recent absence of U.S. soybean arrivals in customs data and the market’s sensitivity to South America weather in Argentina and Brazil.