Daily recap – Thursday, 18 December

Wheat reversed higher on Thursday, led by strength in the hard red markets, as the complex absorbed supportive demand data and fresh forward-crop signals. Chicago SRW held modest gains while KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat pushed sharply higher. Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.07 3/4/bu, up 1 1/2 cents, as traders weighed improving U.S. export sales against the broader, supply-heavy global backdrop.

Corn finished the session firmer, recovering from earlier spillover pressure and leaning on demand momentum. Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.44 1/2/bu, up 4 cents, supported by steady export flow and another strong ethanol signal set that reinforced industrial usage. The tone stayed constructive even as the market keeps one eye on outside-energy channels and late-year positioning.

Soybeans ended lower again, with the complex struggling to hold rallies amid heavy global supply expectations and ongoing fragility in traditional demand. Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.52 1/4/bu, down 6 cents, while meal was steadier-to-firmer and soyoil weakened. The market digested mixed export news, including additional U.S. sales but a still-wide year-on-year gap in commitments—especially tied to China.

Global drivers and key headlines shaping the session

Vegetable oils set a decisive macro tone, after India— the world’s largest edible-oil buyer—canceled or deferred more than 100,000 tons of Argentine soy oil for near-term shipment as domestic prices traded well below import offers and the rupee weakened. The shift signals demand sensitivity at current price relationships and raises the risk of further washouts if the price gap persists, directly feeding back into the soyoil/soy complex and crush incentives.

India’s flow story also turned more unusual: even as South American cargoes were rolled, buyers continued taking rare soybean oil shipments from China, where pricing was more attractive. That emerging trade lane underscores how quickly global vegoil trade can reroute when domestic demand softens, local supply rises, and arbitrage opens—pressuring traditional suppliers during tight crushing windows.

U.S. biofuel-linked demand stayed supportive for corn via fresh energy data. Ethanol stocks fell to 22.353 million barrels and production hit a new record at 1.131 million b/d, strengthening the case that industrial usage remains a key stabilizer for corn, even when grain markets are otherwise dominated by supply narratives and cross-commodity volatility.

Export headlines were active and market-moving. USDA confirmed 198,000 MT soybeans sold to China, 125,000 MT soybeans to unknown destinations, and 177,055 MT corn to Mexico—but also reported a cancellation of 132,000 MT of white wheat to China that will show in upcoming weekly export sales. The mix reinforced strong corn flow, a still-active soybean pipeline, and persistent sensitivity in wheat demand.

South America remained central to forward pricing, with Brazil export expectations firming. ANEC raised December projections to 3.57 MMT soy exports, 2.0 MMT soymeal exports, and 6.35 MMT corn exports, keeping the “available supply” narrative front and center—especially into year-end when importers assess near-term coverage and freight economics.

Argentina’s soybean season added a weather-and-timing risk premium. Research flagged planting progress around 58% complete, behind last year, as dry conditions persist across the Pampas with minimal rainfall forecast into late month. While soil moisture remains “decent” in many core areas for now, the outlook increases the chance that moisture deficits become a dominant yield concern later in the season—particularly if La Niña-linked patterns reinforce hot/dry risks.

Weather signals were broadly benign for U.S. winter wheat survival, but not uniformly supportive. Forecasts point to widespread warmth across much of the U.S. into year-end—helpful for winter wheat in general—yet persistent warmth and limited precipitation in the Central/Southern Plains is slowly drawing down soil moisture, raising the longer-run risk of reduced winter hardiness if cold returns abruptly. Teleconnections added texture, with a positive Trans-Atlantic Dipole flagged as supportive of Argentina drought risk and Europe cold risk into the new year.

Beyond grains, palm oil developments continued to shape relative vegoil pricing. Indonesia reported higher October exports and output alongside lower stockpiles, while Malaysia pressed the EU to classify it as “low-risk” under the delayed deforestation regulation framework. These policy-and-flow dynamics matter because they influence global palm availability and compliance costs—key inputs into the palm/soyoil spread that ultimately feeds back into soybean crush values.