Wheat

At the Chicago open, December ’25 CBOT wheat started around $5.32/bu (last close $5.35½, then “currently down ~3½¢”), with winter wheats softer and spring comparatively steadier as the market continued to “sell the fact” after Thursday’s China headlines.

Corn

December ’25 corn began near $4.28½/bu (last close $4.28¾, then “currently down ¼¢”), consolidating after the previous session’s 6–7¢ losses even as cash indications eased to a $3.89¾ national average.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans opened around $10.93¼/bu (last close $10.91¾, then “currently up 1½¢”), with meal steady and soyoil firmer alongside resilient Asian vegoil complexes.

FAO’s cooler dashboard and macro tone

Global food prices fell in October: the FAO Food Price Index slipped 1.6% m/m, with grains down ~1%, dairy −3.4%, meat −2% (pork and poultry), and sugar −5.3% to the lowest since Dec 2020 on strong output in Brazil/Thailand/India; softer crude also trimmed biofuel pull. Positioning-wise, funds were net sellers Thursday across SRW, corn, soy, meal and oil, reinforcing a risk-off tilt into the weekend.

Stocks and production cushions

FAO now projects record 2025/26 grain output at 2.99bn t and end-season stocks at 916.3m t, lifting the stock-to-use ratio to 31.1%—an 8-year high—with corn leading the gains and rice stocks revised up to a new peak 215.4m t. These buffers temper upside risk despite weather and policy noise.

China’s soy pulse and trade signals

China’s October soybean imports hit 9.48 MMT (+17.2% y/y), capping a May–Oct record streak, though −26% m/m on seasonality. Traders cite Brazil’s price edge while a 13% levy still weighs on U.S. beans; recent flows included ~20 Brazilian cargoes and 3 U.S. cargoes taken by COFCO ahead of the leaders’ meeting.

Corporate deals underscore supply security

Chinese supply-chain giant Xiamen C&D signed $5.2bn worth of ag contracts in Shanghai with Cargill, LDC, Syngenta, CHS, Olam, BTG Pactual, Cutrale, spanning soy, corn, cotton and more—another signal of active forward coverage into 2026.

Brazil export pace and field weather

Export programs remain brisk: ANEC pegs November at 3.77 MMT soy, 2.23 MMT soymeal, and 5.57 MMT corn (all > last year’s pace). In-country, a reinforced frontal pattern keeps central/northern Brazil wet and cooler, benefiting soybean germination after earlier moisture worries.

Argentina: planting, labor peace, and wheat watch

Argentina has begun 2025/26 soy planting with “optimal” soil moisture; area held at 17.6 Mha with 4.4% sown and production ideas near 48.5 MMT. A wage deal between SOEA and CIARA averts a strike at crushing plants, while the exchange monitors late-season frost impacts as wheat harvest advances. Corn area progress stands at 36% for the 7.8 Mha plan.

Russia’s wheat duty and Kazakh balance

Russia cut its floating wheat export duty to 76 rubles/t for Nov 7–11 (from 167.7), while barley and corn duties remain zero—part of the “grain damper” mechanism that adjusts weekly via MOEX registrations. Neighbor Kazakhstan guides grain exports at ~13 MMT this season, roughly flat y/y.

Europe’s progress and U.S. river risks

FranceAgriMer reports France corn 90% harvested, soft-wheat 79% sown and winter barley 87% sown with 98% in good/very good condition; durum at 23% sown. Meanwhile, Mississippi River levels are falling and could turn hazardous into late November absent a pattern shift, keeping barge drafts/basis in focus.

Weather map into mid-November

North America stays warm 15-day with limited precip; lake-effect snow risks pop in the Midwest and winds elevate combine-fire risk on low humidity days. Europe trends warm with wet spells central; Black Sea east still moisture-short with delayed dormancy. Tropics feature Typhoon Kalmaegi toward Vietnam/eastern Thailand and TS Fung-Wong near Luzon.