Early Wednesday trade is firmer across grains, with soybeans leading as the market weighs renewed China demand signals against a still-“big” Brazil supply narrative and weather that remains supportive in some areas but fragile in others.

Export demand headlines are the near-term anchor for soy. Reuters reported Sinograin bought 10 U.S. soybean cargoes for March–May shipment, and USDA confirmed 336,000 MT sold to China for 2025/26, reinforcing that U.S. beans remain in the conversation even into Brazil’s peak shipping window.

That China flow matters because soybean commitments are still lagging year-on-year, keeping the market sensitive to every incremental demand pulse. The source flags total soybean export commitments at 27.698 MMT, down 31% from last year and slightly behind the average pace, which is why China headlines are showing up directly in nearby price response.

Wheat is leaning more on supply-risk and condition optics than on clean demand momentum. December state ratings slipped in key Plains HRW areas, and USDA noted about 40% of the U.S. winter wheat crop sits in drought-affected areas, a setup that can keep weather premium “sticky” even as global export competition remains intense.

The U.S. forecast adds a second layer to wheat: above-normal temperatures across winter wheat belts are reducing winter hardiness, raising sensitivity to the next cold shot later this month. Near term, Southern Plains wet spells are supportive for soil moisture, but the longer-horizon risk is that warm spells followed by hard freezes can create sharper two-way volatility.

South America remains the dominant “repricing lever,” but the near-term signal is mixed rather than outright bullish. Central Brazil has seen helpful recent showers that aid pod setting, yet soil moisture is still very low and coverage over the next 4–6 weeks matters more than normal; Argentina continues to show a north-better / south-central-drier split that keeps traders watching for deterioration in southern crop conditions if fronts keep favoring the north.

Vegetable oils are tilting supportive this morning and are helping soy spreads. Malaysian palm is higher overnight, and Chinese veg-oil futures are firmer, while updated outlook notes keep Indonesia’s palm production view steady and lift Malaysia’s 2025/26 production outlook—signals that can drive day-to-day soyoil/palm relative value even when grains are weather-led.

Corn has a steadier demand narrative in the background, with total export sales commitments cited at 50.538 MMT, up 30% from last year and ahead of the average pace. Brazil’s December corn exports were also reported sharply higher year-on-year, reinforcing that global feedgrain supply is available, but U.S. demand resilience continues to limit downside follow-through on breaks.

Biofuels and macro signals are active today and can steer intraday spreads. The market is watching the weekly ethanol production survey ahead of the EIA report, while a separate SAF/feedstock headline (Corteva/BP venture) underlines that renewable-fuels demand is still a structural theme for veg oils even if today’s price direction remains headline-driven.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is around $5.16/bu, up 5 1/2 cents early. Wheat is drawing support from deteriorating Plains condition data and the weather setup that reduces winter hardiness, while export competitiveness and EU export pace remain the cap on sustained rallies.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is around $4.45 1/4/bu, up 1 1/4 cents early. Corn is trading demand-anchored on strong cumulative export commitments, with ethanol data later today and South America weather the key levers for whether strength extends.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are around $10.52 1/2/bu, up 10 1/2 cents early. Beans are being supported by fresh China buying/USDA sales confirmation and firmer veg-oil tone, while “big Brazil” supply expectations keep the complex spread-driven and forecast-sensitive.