Wheat

At the start of Thursday’s Chicago session, December ’25 CBOT wheat traded near $5.47¼/bu (about 7½¢ below Wednesday’s close at $5.54¾), with winter wheats easing after the prior day’s gains and spring wheat comparatively steadier. The tone reflects light early selling despite improving U.S.–China trade optics and a relatively dry 7-day U.S. pattern outside parts of the Eastern Corn Belt.

Corn

December ’25 corn opened around $4.32¾/bu (about 2½¢ under Wednesday’s settle at $4.35¼), consolidating after a biofuels-led bounce. The market is balancing record-high ethanol production with still-delayed USDA weekly export-sales data due to the federal shutdown, while cash indications remain firm into mid-November.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans started near $11.08½/bu (about 11¼¢ under Wednesday’s $11.19¾ close) as traders weigh tariff headlines against improving South American weather. Meal held recent gains while soyoil’s bid was supported by strong vegoil complexes in Asia and firm palm.

China returns for U.S. wheat, signaling a thaw

Traders report China booked about 120,000 t of U.S. wheat for December shipment—the first U.S. wheat purchases since October 2024—including one cargo of soft wheat and one of spring wheat. The move followed last week’s Xi–Trump meeting and Beijing’s decision to scrap an additional 15% duty on U.S. wheat from Nov 10, a politically significant gesture even though U.S. wheat is not the cheapest origin.

Tariffs, COFCO, and the soy equation

Beijing will suspend select retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. farm goods from Nov 10, and China’s state-owned COFCO held a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai. Still, U.S. soybeans face a combined 13% tariff, keeping Brazil competitive; the White House has touted large prospective purchases, but volumes remain unconfirmed, so the trade is watching freight, basis, and any daily flashes for proof.

Biofuels tailwind: U.S. ethanol hits a record

DOE data show U.S. ethanol output at a record 1.123 million bpd, with stocks up to 22.655 million bbl. The crush/energy linkage buoyed corn into Wednesday’s close and remains a supportive macro-input even as exports of ethanol slipped week-on-week.

USDA’s November report proceeds, sales data still delayed

Despite the shutdown, USDA confirmed it is collecting survey and field-sample data for the Nov 14 Crop Production report—the first updated U.S. corn/soy yield and production since Sept 12. Weekly export-sales reports remain delayed, but survey ranges point to sizable corn, soy, and wheat bookings for the week ending Oct 30.

Weather: U.S. warm pattern, Brazil wetter, Australia cool and showery

A broadly warm 15-day U.S. outlook favors harvest and fieldwork; central Brazil stays wet as successive fronts reinforce showers helpful for soybean germination; Argentina retains decent soil moisture for early corn/sunflowers but must watch wheat disease pressure. Australia turns cooler and wetter into mid-November, likely slowing wheat/rapeseed harvest rhythm. Tropical risks include Typhoon Kalmaegi toward Vietnam and intensifying Fung-Wong near Luzon.

Russia’s quality pivot and Ukraine’s milling share

With exports slowing on a smaller crop, Russia’s agriculture ministry proposed tighter grain quality controls and more data supervision—an emphasis shift from volume to quality and traceability. Meanwhile, SGS estimates the share of Ukrainian wheat at ≥11.5% protein rose to 44.3% in 2025 from 35.4% in 2024, potentially altering Black Sea blend dynamics.

South America cross-currents: Brazil wheat pressure, soy policy and Argentina logistics

Brazil’s late-October firm weather aided crops, pressuring domestic wheat prices month-on-month across southern states; imports in October also eased year-over-year. A Brazilian Supreme Court justice suspended proceedings over the soy moratorium until a final ruling, keeping deforestation-linked sourcing in focus. In Argentina, a $277m Parana River port project advanced under the RIGI investment scheme, supporting ag logistics.

India’s wheat and Argentina’s soy outlooks

India’s 2026/27 wheat production is preliminarily pegged near 114.4 MMT with area stable around 32.7 Mha, backed by a higher MSP; sowing follows a wetter-than-normal monsoon and localized flooding relief in Punjab. Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean output estimate holds near 47.4 MMT; recent dryness briefly eased excess moisture in the Pampas, but La Niña risk into DJF keeps yield trajectories weather-sensitive.

Logistics and rivers: Mississippi levels, Europe/Black Sea watch

Mississippi River levels are cresting north-to-south; with a clipper-style pattern offering scant precip, hydrology could deteriorate again by late November, keeping an eye on barge drafts and basis. Europe trends warm with central wet spells; the eastern Black Sea remains moisture-short, and warmth delays dormancy—making winter recharge critical for 2026 wheat.