Wheat

At the start of today’s Chicago session, Dec ’25 CBOT wheat traded around $5.415/bu (Friday close $5.34 plus ~7½¢ early gains). The complex is buoyed by fresh talk of Chinese interest in U.S. wheat after a year-long hiatus, firmer European cues, and dryness across key U.S. belts into mid-November. The European Commission nudged EU soft-wheat output to 133.4 MMT, France’s winter wheat reached 67% planted, and Argentina’s harvest progressed to 8.4%, collectively reinforcing a cautiously supportive tone.

Corn

Dec ’25 CBOT corn began Monday near $4.325/bu (Friday close $4.315 plus ~1¢ early). Support stems from steady U.S. harvest pace nearing three-quarters complete, spillover strength from wheat and soy, and Brazilian/Argentine field updates: Brazil’s first-crop corn is ~60% planted, Argentina is 35% planted, and Ukraine’s October corn exports slowed to 0.8 MMT, tempering Black Sea competition. Insurance math leaves October’s average near $4.22, framing price risk into mid-month reports.

Soybeans

Nov ’25 soybeans opened firm around $11.0475/bu (Friday close $10.9975 plus ~5¢) as the market extended last week’s rally on U.S.–China détente headlines and additional Chinese purchases. U.S. officials said Beijing will suspend retaliatory tariffs and step up buys to 12 MMT this year and 25 MMT annually over the next three years; traders still note a residual 13% duty that keeps Brazil competitive. Domestic U.S. cues include stronger soymeal and softer soyoil, with Brazilian planting at ~47%, now lagging last year.

China–U.S. détente anchors risk appetite across grains. The White House detailed a pause on newly announced retaliatory tariffs and flagged firm soybean purchase volumes, fueling hopes that ag trade normalizes. Market focus today is whether inspection data confirms China as a destination and how quickly any wheat inquiries translate into bookings. The Section 301 backdrop still injects optionality — supportive if progress holds, volatile if it wobbles.

China’s wheat signal adds a new leg. After more than a year without U.S. wheat purchases, Chinese buyers were reported canvassing for Dec–Feb loadings, dovetailing with tariff thaw language that included removing additional wheat duties. Even modest U.S. volumes could ripple through spreads given recent softness in Chinese total wheat imports and ongoing domestic price support.

Russia’s non-GMO soy channel stays intact despite the truce. Moscow expects a record ~9 MMT soybean crop and up to 1 MMT exports, with ≤0.8 MMT of non-GMO beans headed to China — a niche that does not directly compete with U.S. GMO feed beans. Russia also seeks Chinese access for winter wheat, while overall ag exports to China rose ~10% yr/yr in Jan–Sep.

Vegetable oils shift the crush calculus. Malaysian palm inventories likely climbed to a two-year high in October as output hit a seven-year peak and exports only inched up, pressuring palm futures and, by correlation, soyoil. Indonesia’s Jan–Sep palm exports rose 11.6% yr/yr, while uncertainty around B50 biodiesel policy tempers bullish palm sentiment. The palm/soy oil ratio today tilts in favor of meal-led strength for the soybean complex.

Brazil and Argentina provide mixed grain impulses. In Brazil, sellers are scarce as they prioritize fieldwork; domestic corn prices firm with high export parity even as some consumers lean on inventories. Brazilian soy export premiums eased on U.S. trade headlines, but spot values held as sellers favored forward batches. In Argentina, soil moisture is broadly supportive for corn and sunflower, yet persistent rains raise wheat disease pressure; soybean planting should accelerate this month.

Black Sea wheat stays aggressive but steady. Russian 12.5% FOB values held around $230–233/MT for early-December slots as margins swung back to positive and October exports were tallied in the 5.1–5.8 MMT range. Analysts expect active November loadings with weather not yet a hindrance, keeping the global wheat board vigilant on price floors into winter.

Macro and data watch sharpen into mid-month. USDA confirmed it will publish November Crop Production and WASDE on Nov 14, the first full U.S. corn/soy update since September. A Bloomberg survey pegs September crush at ~203.6 mbu (+9.2% y/y), with soybean-oil stocks near 1.7 bln lbs, and corn-for-ethanol down ~2% y/y. Markets will parse these alongside evolving Mississippi River levels and clipper-pattern weather that keeps U.S. fieldwork largely on track.

Security and policy nuance in China’s ag sphere is a sidewind to watch. The Ministry of State Security warned about foreign attempts to obtain seed genetics and crop data, underscoring Beijing’s framing of food security as national security. While not immediately price-moving, such signals can influence approval timelines, import regimes, and collaboration in seeds and traits — especially for soy, corn, and rice.

Typhoon and precipitation patterns round out today’s weather risk. Typhoon Kalmaegi crosses the Philippines with a final landfall expected in southern Vietnam; South America stays wet — particularly central/north Argentina and south-to-southeast Center-West Brazil — while Europe trends warmer with below-average Central European rainfall. In the U.S., widespread warmth and generally limited precipitation keep harvest efficiency elevated, although Delta river levels could soften again later in November absent stronger northern runoff.