Chicago wheat futures pulled back on Wednesday but held most of their recent gains. December 2025 CBOT SRW closed at $5.36 3/4 per bushel, down 9 3/4 cents, while KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat also finished lower amid talk of a possible Ukraine–Russia peace deal and expectations for heavy rains across the US Southern Plains and parts of SRW country over the next week. Census data, delayed by the shutdown, showed August US wheat exports at 2.69 million tons, the highest for the month in nine years and nearly 17% above last year, but speculative positioning remains heavy, with funds still strongly net short in both Chicago and Kansas wheat.

Corn futures also ended the day under pressure. December 2025 corn settled at $4.29 3/4 per bushel, down 7 cents, with the US cmdtyView national average cash corn price slipping 6 3/4 cents to $3.91 1/4. Outside markets added weight as crude oil fell and the dollar strengthened, but fundamentals stayed broadly constructive: EIA data showed ethanol production rebounding to 1.091 million barrels per day, stocks edging up to 22.307 million barrels, and August Census exports hitting a record 6.397 million tons, more than 25% above last year. A South Korean importer booked 130,000–135,000 tons of corn in a tender, while Brazil’s ANEC raised its November export estimate to 6.36 million tons, underscoring intense global competition even as CFTC data (from late September) showed funds extending their net short to over 135,000 contracts.

Soybeans led the complex lower. January 2026 futures closed at $11.36 1/4 per bushel, down 17 1/4 cents, while the US national average cash soybean price fell 17 cents to $10.63 3/4. Soymeal futures dropped $9, reversing part of their recent strength, and soyoil slid 105 points after a Reuters report suggested the EPA may delay its planned 50% cut to credits on imported feedstocks beyond the initially proposed 2026 start date. USDA’s daily system reported another 330,000 tons of soybeans sold to China, following 792,000 tons the previous day, while delayed Census data showed August soybean exports at 2.273 million tons, a three-year high for the month, and soybean meal exports at a record 1.336 million tons. Even so, funds remained net short soybeans at the end of September, and Brazilian export and production estimates continue to frame a very well-supplied global balance.

China’s renewed buying campaign in the US soybean market remains a central pillar of this week’s narrative. State-owned COFCO has now booked at least 24 US cargoes over the past few days, lifting total purchases this season above 2 million tons and slowly moving Beijing toward the 12-million-ton target Washington says was agreed in October’s Trump–Xi trade truce. These state-driven deals have come despite US beans being more expensive than Brazilian alternatives and are seen as a political signal as much as a commercial one. Chicago soybean futures rallied to 17-month highs earlier in the week on optimism that China will keep buying at a steady pace, even as traders note that abundant Chinese stocks and elevated US prices could limit follow-through unless the purchase program is sustained.

Brazil, meanwhile, continues to cement its dominance in the global soy complex. Industry group Abiove now projects 2026 soybean production at a record 177.7 million tons, with exports seen at 111 million tons and crush at 60.5 million tons, all higher than this year. Despite stronger processing and outbound flows, Brazilian soybean ending stocks are forecast to rise to 10.6 million tons, while soymeal output is expected at 46.6 million tons and soyoil at 12.2 million tons. Abiove has lifted its 2026 export revenue forecast for soybeans and by-products to $60.25 billion, $5 billion above last month’s estimate, and raised its 2025 projection to $53.3 billion, reflecting roughly a 10% rise in Chicago soybean futures since late October. With Brazil expected to reap an almost 178-million-ton crop and ship nearly $50 billion worth of soy alone next year, the country remains the key origin for Chinese crushers and a critical supplier of protein meal to the EU.

Weather-related stress in Argentina is the main counterweight to this otherwise comfortable supply picture. In central Buenos Aires province, extensive flooding has blocked access to fields and delayed soybean and corn planting, leaving around 1.5 million hectares at “very high risk” of becoming unproductive, according to Carbap. Nationally, soybean planting is only about 15% complete versus 25% at this point last year, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting progress of 12.9%. Analysts have nudged 2025/26 soybean production slightly lower to 46.9 million tons, less than 1% below previous estimates, and warn that under a developing La Niña—typically associated with hotter, drier conditions in the Pampas—current abundant soil moisture could erode quickly if coming fronts deliver only patchy rainfall.

Paraguay offers a more reassuring contrast within the Southern Cone. Current projections put 2025/26 soybean production near 10.8 million tons, virtually unchanged from earlier estimates and only slightly below USDA’s 11-million-ton outlook. Healthy soil moisture and a positive short-term forecast underpin expectations for yields around 2.9 tons per hectare on roughly 3.7–3.8 million hectares, though pockets of excessive moisture in southeastern areas warrant monitoring. As a consistent secondary exporter, Paraguay’s relatively stable outlook adds an extra cushion to South American soybean availability, even as Argentina struggles with floods and Brazil pushes toward record volumes.

Across the broader wheat and corn landscape, policy decisions and steady supply growth are reshaping trade flows. Ukraine has confirmed it will not impose wheat export restrictions in 2025/26, citing a larger harvest of about 23 million tons and slower export rates early in the current season. Wheat exports next year are expected around 17 million tons, up from 15.7 million tons in 2024/25, and the country has already shipped 6.8 million tons so far this season versus 8.6 million a year earlier. That stance, combined with record or near-record harvest prospects in Argentina and fierce competition from Russia and the EU, reinforces a highly competitive export environment likely to cap wheat rallies, even as dryness in southwestern Russia’s winter wheat belt remains a key watchpoint for 2026 yield potential.

Global weather patterns continue to feed directly into risk premia across the grain complex. In North America, forecasts call for warm conditions over the next 10 days with moderate to heavy wet spells across the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains that should benefit winter wheat establishment and chip away at drought, although low Mississippi River levels still constrain barge traffic and raise logistics costs. In South America, central Brazil (Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Goiás) remains wetter and cooler with recurring showers, while southern Brazil risks sliding toward moisture deficits just as the heart of the growing season approaches. Europe faces scattered showers and falling temperatures, with snow potential from Austria into southern Poland as winter wheat moves toward dormancy, and the Black Sea region remains split between limited showers in Ukraine/northwestern Russia and persistent dryness in the southwest. Australia continues to see mixed soil moisture, with rains favoring the west while the drier east moves through wheat and canola maturity and harvest, limiting the benefit of additional precipitation.

Energy and livestock fundamentals are adding further texture to grain and oilseed demand. In the US, latest estimates ahead of the EIA report point to ethanol production near 1.091 million barrels per day and stocks around 22.44 million barrels, suggesting steady to slightly firmer corn use for fuel, while Census data show August ethanol exports at a record 188.77 million gallons, nearly 24% above last year. On the livestock side, a Bloomberg survey indicates US cattle placements in October likely fell about 8.1% year-on-year, with the feedlot herd down 2.3% and marketings off 7.1%, a combination that points toward continued tight beef supplies and elevated feedgrain and protein-meal relevance over the medium term. At the same time, the CFTC is resuming publication of its delayed Commitments of Traders reports in chronological order, a catch-up process that could reveal significant shifts in managed money exposure across wheat, corn and soybeans and influence speculative flows as markets navigate this mix of ample supply, robust trade, emerging South American weather risks and shifting policy signals.