Chicago wheat opens Wednesday on a steadier footing after two strong sessions. December 2025 CBOT SRW is trading around $5.48 1/4 per bushel, about 1 3/4 cents above Tuesday’s close at $5.46 1/2, while KC HRW is slightly softer and Minneapolis spring wheat firmer in early trade. The market is balancing solid EU export performance – 9.05 million tons shipped since July, now virtually in line with last year – against a US winter wheat crop that is 92% planted and 79% emerged but rated only 45% good to excellent, down from 49% a year ago. At the same time, Ukraine has confirmed it will not restrict wheat exports in 2025/26, with a 23-million-ton harvest and 17 million tons projected for export, reinforcing the picture of ample global supply even as regional condition risks linger.

Corn starts the Chicago session with a slightly weaker tone after modest gains on Tuesday. December 2025 corn is indicated near $4.34 3/4 per bushel, about 2 cents below Tuesday’s close at $4.36 3/4, following a day in which most contracts added 1–2 cents and open interest rose by 5,489 contracts despite continued long liquidation out of the December month. The US cmdtyView national average cash corn price is holding just under the $4 mark at $3.98 1/4. USDA’s latest Crop Progress data show 91% of the US corn crop harvested as of 16 November, slightly behind the 94% five-year average but signaling that harvest is effectively wrapping up. Demand signals remain supportive, with a South Korean importer booking 130,000–135,000 tons of corn in a tender and the market awaiting fresh EIA ethanol statistics and delayed CFTC positioning data to gauge the strength of biofuel and fund demand.

Soybeans enter Wednesday’s trade on the defensive after a sharp rally earlier in the week. January 2026 futures are trading about 10 cents lower around $11.43 1/2 per bushel, having closed Tuesday at $11.53 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents as the market “sold the fact” of the Chinese buying wave. The US national average cash soybean price eased 4 cents to $10.80 3/4, while soymeal futures fell $3.30 to about $5.00 and soyoil futures continued to climb, adding a further 93–103 points and extending the recent outperformance of oil versus meal. USDA reports that 95% of the US soybean crop is harvested, just a touch behind the 96% average pace, while Brazil’s soybean crop forecast has been trimmed only marginally to 177.7 million tons by Abiove, keeping South American supply expectations firmly in record-territory despite rising weather risks in Argentina and southern Brazil.

China’s intensified return to the US soybean market remains one of the defining forces for today’s sentiment. USDA’s daily reporting system confirmed 792,000 tons of soybeans sold to China on Tuesday, broadly matching trade talk that state trader COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes – roughly 840,000 tons – and possibly closer to 20 cargoes or 1.2 million tons on Monday. These purchases are driven less by pure price competitiveness, as US beans still carry a premium to Brazilian origins, and more by Beijing’s political commitment to the trade truce and purchase pledges agreed with Washington. After a year in which US soybean sales to China badly lagged last year’s 27-million-ton total, this wave of state-led buying marks an important psychological and fundamental turning point, helping anchor soybean futures even as global supplies remain heavy.

South American developments are equally pivotal, with Argentina’s weather and Brazil’s expansion pulling in opposite directions. In Argentina’s central Buenos Aires province, extensive flooding is blocking access to fields and delaying soybean and corn planting in one of the world’s major grain export hubs. Rainfall over the past four months has run well above normal, leaving about 1.5 million hectares at “very high risk” of becoming unproductive, according to Carbap. Farmers fear that fields now turned into sheets of standing water may remain idle for the rest of the season, a worrying prospect in a country that is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal and oil and the third-largest exporter of corn.

At the same time, analytical estimates for Argentina’s new soybean crop are being nudged slightly lower as the season starts under volatile conditions. Current projections peg 2025/26 soybean production around 46.9 million tons, fractionally (<1%) below the previous update, with planted area estimated at 16.7 million hectares. National planting progress is reported at roughly 15%, significantly behind last year’s 25%, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange citing sowing at around 12.9%. Weather patterns across the Pampas have swung between persistent rains in central and southern Buenos Aires and renewed dryness and warmth across core areas of Córdoba and neighboring regions. While soil moisture is still generally ample, forecasters warn that under a developing La Niña – typically associated with hotter, drier conditions in Argentina – those reserves could erode quickly if expected fronts in late November and December bring only patchy rains.

Brazil, by contrast, continues to project record soybean potential and rising export clout. Industry group Abiove now sees 2026 soybean output at a record 177.7 million tons, up from 172.1 million this year, with exports expected to reach 111 million tons and soybean crush rising to 60.5 million tons. Despite higher processing and external sales, Brazil’s soybean ending stocks are projected to climb to 10.6 million tons from 6.9 million in 2025, while soymeal production is forecast at 46.6 million tons and soyoil output at 12.2 million tons. On the revenue side, Abiove estimates that soybean and by-product exports will generate about $60.25 billion in 2026, a $5-billion upgrade from last month’s outlook, and has also raised its 2025 revenue forecast to $53.3 billion. The revision reflects a 10% rise in Chicago soybean futures since late October and underscores Brazil’s entrenched role as the dominant origin for Chinese crushers and a key protein meal supplier to the EU.

Elsewhere in the soy complex, Paraguay adds a quieter but still relevant layer of supply. Current projections for 2025/26 Paraguay soybean production stand near 10.8 million tons, almost unchanged from the last update and close to USDA’s 11-million-ton figure. Healthy soil moisture and a supportive short-term forecast underpin high yield expectations, even though pockets of excessive moisture in southeastern key areas warrant monitoring. With planted area near 3.7–3.8 million hectares and yields around 2.9 tons per hectare, Paraguay is set to remain a consistent secondary exporter in the Southern Cone, contributing to the broader South American cushion in soybean availability.

Beyond soybeans, global wheat and corn trade flows are being reshaped by policy choices and steady supply growth. Ukraine has signaled it will not impose wheat export restrictions in 2025/26, citing a larger harvest of around 23 million tons and lower export rates at the start of the current season. Exports for the coming marketing year are expected near 17 million tons, up from 15.7 million last season, and the country has already shipped 6.8 million tons of wheat so far this season versus 8.6 million a year earlier. Combined with record or near-record output prospects in Argentina and ongoing competition from Russia and the EU, this stance reinforces a competitive export environment that may continue to cap wheat price rallies, even as localized condition issues – such as persistent dryness in southwestern Russia’s winter wheat belt – remain on the radar.

Weather remains a critical driver for forward-looking price risk across all major exporters. In North America, a warm pattern is forecast to persist across the US for the next 10 days, punctuated by moderate to heavy wet spells that will improve soil moisture for winter wheat in the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains. However, water levels on the Mississippi River remain low, prolonging transportation restrictions despite the wetter outlook. In South America, Argentina’s Pampas is expected to stay cool to warm with below-normal rainfall, with only scattered showers from late-week fronts, raising the risk that otherwise favorable soil moisture begins to decline into December. Central Brazil, including Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Goiás, remains wetter and cooler with recurring showers, but southern Brazil – particularly Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná – is seeing drier conditions and may be nearing a stress point for corn and soybean crops as the core of the growing season approaches.

Outside the Americas, regional patterns add nuance to the global balance sheet. Across Europe, scattered showers are set to continue into next week, with falling temperatures turning some of the precipitation into snow from Austria into southern Poland, just as winter wheat in northern areas heads into dormancy. In the Black Sea region, a couple of systems will pass through with only limited showers, mainly in Ukraine and northwestern Russia, while southwestern Russia stays worryingly dry and needs an active winter to safeguard yield prospects. In Australia, soil moisture remains mixed: this week’s showers will favor western areas while the east stays relatively dry at a time when wheat and canola are maturing and harvest is ramping up, limiting the benefit of additional rainfall. Across Asia, temperatures are expected to be near to slightly below normal over the next 15 days with varied conditions in northern China and above-normal rainfall in southern India, South Korea, Japan and parts of Southeast Asia, shaping planting and early crop development for a mix of commodities but only indirectly affecting the core grain exporters.

Macro-level demand indicators in energy and livestock sectors continue to interact with grain and oilseed fundamentals. The US ethanol market awaits today’s EIA report, with analysts expecting weekly production to edge higher to around 1.091 million barrels per day and stocks to build to roughly 22.44 million barrels, both figures implying steady to firmer corn use for fuel. In the livestock sector, a Bloomberg survey suggests US cattle placements onto feedlots in October fell about 8.1% year on year, with the total feedlot herd down 2.3% and marketings off 7.1%. Tighter cattle supplies and softer placements typically point toward continued high beef prices and influence feed demand for both corn and protein meals over the medium term. At the same time, the CFTC is resuming publication of its delayed Commitments of Traders reports, a catch-up process that may reveal shifts in managed money exposure across wheat, corn and soybeans and shape speculative flows as markets navigate this combination of ample supplies, strong trade, early South American weather risks and evolving policy signals.