Wheat

Chicago wheat futures closed weaker on Monday, with December 2025 SRW ending at $5.22¼ per bushel, down 4¾ cents, as winter wheat again led the downside while Minneapolis spring wheat held steady. The pressure came despite exceptionally strong weekly export inspections, which surged 92% week-on-week to 474,530 tons, pushing cumulative exports 19.65% ahead of last year. US winter wheat planting reached 97%, matching the seasonal pace, while good-to-excellent ratings improved to 48%, though still below last year’s level. FranceAgriMer maintained exceptionally strong crop conditions at 98% G/E, and Saudi Arabia secured 300,000 tons in a new tender, underscoring healthy global demand even as futures drift under the weight of ample global supply and macro pressure.

Corn

Corn futures also softened to start the week, with December 2025 closing at $4.23¾ per bushel, down 1¾ cents, as the market absorbed mixed technical and fundamental signals. The US corn harvest reached 96%, just one point shy of the five-year average, and export shipments of 1.63 MMT were robust — up 61.8% from the same week last year — though down from last week’s exceptionally strong pace. The national US cash corn index slipped slightly to $3.87½, indicating steady but unspectacular physical demand. Brazilian corn prices firmed again, supported by cautious farmer selling and ongoing first-crop fieldwork, even as the global balance remains comfortable due to large 2024/25 and 2025/26 production expectations. Brazilian planting advanced to 93% but remains slightly behind last year’s pace.

Soybeans

Soybean futures ended Monday modestly lower, with January 2026 closing at $11.23¼ per bushel, down 1¾ cents, as the market balanced weak export flows against growing expectations of renewed US–China trade commitments. USDA reported a private sale of 123,000 tons to China, and US Agriculture Secretary Rollins signaled that both countries expect to finalize the previously discussed 12 MMT soybean purchase agreement within days. Yet export inspections told a bleaker story: shipments collapsed to 799,042 tons, the lowest for this week since 2006, with year-to-date exports down 44.5% from last year. Domestic soybean crush remains record-strong, while Brazilian planting reached 81%, behind last year’s pace as irregular rainfall and replanting needs continue to slow fieldwork.

Global Market Drivers & Key Headlines

The biggest macro shock came from the US protein sector, where Tyson Foods announced the closure of its major beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska, affecting 3,200 workers, alongside reduced operations in Amarillo, Texas. The decision reflects the tightest US cattle supplies in nearly 75 years, driven by years of drought-driven herd liquidation. Tyson’s beef division posted an adjusted $426 million loss over the past 12 months and expects $400–$600 million in losses in fiscal 2026. For grain markets, the move signals a medium-term reduction in US feed demand, particularly for corn and soymeal, though high beef prices may sustain underlying protein-sector tightness.

Fresh US data emphasized the growing role of processing and biofuels in shaping grain demand. USDA’s August soybean crush hit a historic 198 million bushels, up 18.2% year-on-year, reflecting expanding renewable diesel-linked capacity. Soybean oil stocks rose nearly 10%, and ethanol-linked corn use reached 463.4 million bushels, up month-on-month but down 3.4% year-on-year. Total corn consumed by mills fell 3.9%, reinforcing a theme of steady but not bullish industrial demand — supportive for basis, but insufficient to counteract broader bearish sentiment in corn futures.

US livestock dynamics continue to shift in ways that influence feed markets. October Cattle on Feed placements fell 10%, deeper than expected, while the feedlot herd shrank 2.2% year-on-year. Marketings were down 8%, confirming a tightening supply environment. In contrast, US milk production rose 3.9%, with output per cow up 1.5%, indicating robust feed demand from the dairy sector even as the beef sector contracts. These divergent livestock trends are expected to influence regional feed consumption patterns into early 2026.

South American weather is now one of the dominant global risk factors, with Argentina and southern Brazil showing a slow but clear shift toward dryness. Meteorologists warn that a below-normal rainfall pattern is emerging for December, threatening yield formation in both crops unless rains return in time. Soil moisture remains good in parts of the Pampas, but the drier trend is gaining momentum. In central and northern Brazil, frequent showers will stabilize topsoil moisture, but the unevenness of rainfall continues to delay planting and increase replanting needs.

Brazilian domestic markets mirrored this climate tension. Corn prices held firm as sellers stayed out of the market, and soybean prices strengthened modestly as farmers withheld new sales. The CEPEA/ESALQ soybean index rose 1.2% at Paranaguá and 1.1% in Paraná, while soymeal prices rose 1.3% on strong feed demand. Soy oil, however, fell 2.5%, reflecting softer global vegetable-oil sentiment despite firming fundamentals in other parts of the soy complex.

Broader weather developments added another layer of volatility. A series of strong systems is poised to sweep across the US Midwest, Delta and Plains, bringing rain, snow, and a significant push of Arctic air that will force wheat into dormancy and end remaining fieldwork. The Northern Plains face potential blizzard conditions, while Mississippi River levels, though slightly improved, remain low enough to constrain barge logistics. Europe saw generally favorable rainfall, while southwestern Russia continues to struggle with dryness despite improved precipitation in Ukraine.

Outside the Americas, shifts in trade routes and policy continue to shape demand flows. India and Afghanistan announced the imminent launch of new air-cargo corridors connecting Kabul, Delhi and Amritsar, designed to bypass Pakistan’s closed land routes and speed access to grains, medicines and industrial goods. At the same time, Indonesia set ambitious new 2026 agricultural output targets — including 34.77 million tons of rice and 18 million tons of corn — signaling long-term efforts to strengthen food security and potentially reduce reliance on global imports.