Wheat

At the start of Friday’s Chicago session, Dec ’25 CBOT wheat traded near $5.18¼ per bushel, reflecting early-day softness versus Thursday’s settlement at $5.24¼. The tone is pressured by lighter U.S. precipitation ahead, but broader support stems from the European Commission nudging up EU soft-wheat output to 133.4 MMT and ongoing Black Sea balance-watching. Traders remain sensitive to policy signals from the U.S.–China track, even if the latest summit headlines were not wheat-specific.

Corn

Dec ’25 CBOT corn opened the day near $4.27¾ per bushel after Thursday’s $4.30¼ close, with futures slipping in early Friday trade as harvest wraps progress and cash averages hover around the upper-$3.80s nationally. The market is digesting a quiet overnight tape, thin changes in open interest, and Ukraine’s markedly smaller October corn exports, while crop-insurance discovery math pegs October’s average close near $4.22.

Soybeans

Nov ’25 soybeans began Friday near $10.86 per bushel after a choppy 40-cent range on Thursday that ultimately finished at $10.91¼. Momentum is anchored by trade headlines: China booked more U.S. cargoes this week and officials outlined stepped-up annual purchase intentions, even as tariff mechanics and crush profitability still complicate commercial demand. Meal is firmer on the week, while soyoil is softer—keeping the complex two-way.

China and the U.S. kept trade at center stage. Washington will continue a Section 301 probe despite a summit “truce,” preserving a lever for future tariffs, while separate remarks pointed to U.S. tariff levels on China being adjusted alongside commitments on rare earths, fentanyl enforcement, and renewed farm buys. For grains, the near-term read-through is less about rates and more about whether ag channels truly reopen at scale.

Concrete bean demand showed up: China bought at least four additional U.S. soybean cargoes for late-2025 and early-2026 shipment, with officials signaling 12 MMT of purchases this year and a path toward ~25 MMT annually over the next three years. Market chatter suggests state buyers led the way; even with some tariff relief, private crushers still face tight margins versus Brazil. The flows nonetheless underpin the CBOT rally’s floor.

South America stayed pivotal for supply risk. In Argentina, the exchange kept 2025/26 corn area at 7.8 million ha with planting 35% complete, but flagged late-season frosts nipping wheat in southern zones; the full impact is pending, though headline production is still guided near 22 MMT—potentially the second-largest on record. In Brazil, fronts are restarting central-belt showers after a dry week, a timely assist for soybean germination.

Europe and the Black Sea added mixed signals. The European Commission lifted 2025/26 soft-wheat output to 133.4 MMT, barley to 55.9 MMT, and held corn at 56.8 MMT, while France’s corn harvest accelerated to 82% and wheat sowing upshifted to 68%, both ahead of averages. Russia’s October wheat exports are seen around 5.1–5.7 MMT—below last year on some estimates—keeping attention on the region’s pace and any policy nudges to move more tonnage.

Ukraine’s harvest grind continued. Farmers had threshed roughly 40.2 MMT of grains off 8.77 million hectares as of Oct. 31, with total-year ambitions around 56 MMT—similar to 2024. Corridor and logistics dynamics remain a swing factor for corn and wheat availability into winter.

Vegetable oils fed back into soy complex calculus. Malaysia’s October palm exports rose month on month, Indonesia kept the November CPO reference price broadly steady with unchanged export tax, and BMI raised its 2025 palm oil price outlook on robust Indian demand—even as they flagged potential moderation if soy oil prices keep easing. Elevated Malaysian stocks into 1Q and growing Indonesian output cap upside, but biodiesel policy (e.g., B50) could tighten exportables.

Macro and weather framed the tape. The World Bank’s outlook sees commodity prices falling ~7% in both 2025 and 2026, yet warns that a stronger-than-expected La Niña into late-2025/early-2026 could flip grains higher by crimping output in Argentina, southern Brazil, and the U.S. Gulf. Near-term, U.S. weather stays mostly benign for harvest and river levels improved temporarily in the Delta, while Europe’s frequent showers aid winter-wheat establishment but slow fieldwork.