Wheat — Chicago December ’25 settled at $5.32¼/bu (▲3¼¢). Winter wheats extended the early-week bounce as traders weighed still-light U.S. inspections against improving Black Sea moisture that supports pre-dormancy root development and steady European sowing progress. Caution lingered with EU soft-wheat exports running behind last year, but macro risk appetite and better agronomic headlines underpinned the close.

Corn — Chicago December ’25 finished $4.34/bu (▲2¢). Nearby strength drew support from a solid U.S. export-inspection print and steady ethanol run rates, even as active harvest and mixed cash muted rallies. South American inputs split the tone: Brazil advanced first-crop corn planting with showers returning to central areas, while Argentina’s cooler, drier stretch kept a watch-flag on wheat fill and fieldwork cadence.

Soybeans — Chicago November ’25 closed $10.80¼/bu (▲2¢). Meal firmness and brisk Brazilian planting momentum continued to support the complex, while chatter about possible China purchases ahead of leaders’ meetings added intrigue despite lighter U.S. inspections week-over-week and thin near-term China crush margins.

Global drivers and today’s key headlines

China’s first U.S. soybean buys of the autumn harvest steadied sentiment. State-owned COFCO reportedly booked ~180 KMT for Dec/Jan shipment—symbolic more than sweeping, but enough to keep nearby beans and meal supported into the close while markets await any further “flash” sales.

Weather set much of the near-term playbook. After a mid-week cyclone, the U.S. outlook trends quieter and warmer into November, aiding harvest; Brazil flips back to a wetter pattern as fronts migrate north to restart central-belt showers; Argentina turns cooler/drier with limited frost risk confined far south—net supportive for planting pace but a short-term speed bump for southern Brazil fieldwork.

U.S. flows filled the vacuum left by suspended government reports. Weekly export inspections printed 1.188 MMT corn, 1.061 MMT soybeans, and 0.259 MMT wheat; private surveys pegged harvest near 73% corn and 84% soybeans as of Oct 26, keeping a fast seasonal cadence.

Black Sea moisture finally arrived. Widespread weekend rains with additional showers into eastern Ukraine and western Russia improved pre-dormancy conditions; northern zones still face an early dormancy window, making November temperatures and pattern persistence key for 2026 wheat prospects.

EU export pulse remained a drag. The bloc’s soft-wheat exports were down ~21% y/y by Oct 26, even as barley shipments rose and corn imports fell; data gaps for some members persisted, but the slower wheat pace tempered rallies despite better establishment weather.

Biofuels and veg-oils added cross-asset signals. U.S. ethanol output eased w/w to 1.091M bpd with stocks building to 22.367M bbl, while Indonesia’s palm-oil group GAPKI lifted 2025 output guidance to ~56 MMT and saw exports ~31 MMT—factors tightening soyoil/sunoil spreads at the margin.

Oilseed supply stories shifted tone. Ukraine’s 2025 sunseed crop could slip to ~9.5 MMT if persistent rains hinder harvest—implying softer near-term sunoil output/export and a potentially firmer nearby premium—while Brazil’s shippers projected ~7.0 MMT soy, ~2.08 MMT soymeal, and ~6.19 MMT corn exports for October.

Macro trade snippets rounded out the tape. Russia kept a firm grain-export posture amid record harvest tallies; Japan signaled $8B in U.S. ag buys across corn/soy/ethanol; and Australia’s wheat outlook edged 2% higher to ~34.8 MMT on supportive imagery and weather—collectively reinforcing ample global cereal availability against tighter oilseed balances.