Wheat ended Tuesday higher across all three U.S. exchanges, with Chicago December ’25 settling at $5.29/bu (▲3¢). The tone reflected a continuation of early-week short-covering as winter wheats led, while traders weighed light U.S. inspections against constructive moisture in the Black Sea aiding pre-dormancy establishment and steady sowing progress across Europe. European soft-wheat export pace lagged last year, tempering enthusiasm, but regional weather and macro risk appetite kept bids supported into the close.

Corn firmed but faded from intraday highs, with Chicago December ’25 closing $4.32/bu (▲3¼¢). Weekly U.S. inspections printed 1.188 MMT, underpinning nearby demand optics even as cash tone remained mixed amid active harvest. South American cues were two-sided: Brazil’s first-crop planting advanced and new rains returned, while Argentina’s cooler, drier outlook raised a watch-point for wheat fill and fieldwork cadence.

Soybeans outperformed, with Chicago November ’25 settling $10.78¼/bu (▲11¢) as meal strength and brisk Brazilian planting momentum supported the complex. Talk around possible China buying ahead of leaders’ meetings underpinned sentiment despite thinner U.S. inspections week-over-week. Product spreads stayed influential, with meal firmness offsetting softer soyoil, and wider veg-oil headlines feeding through nearby pricing.

Global drivers

Geopolitics kept risk appetite edgy as markets balanced optimism about high-level U.S.–China dialogue with lingering tariff uncertainty. Parallel Canada–China outreach signaled a push to ease canola barriers—relevant for veg-oil and protein-meal flows that can ripple through global oilseed spreads.

Weather set much of the near-term playbook. North America faced a moderately cold week with widespread frost risk before a warming trend, while Brazil shifted back to a wetter pattern as a persistent frontal zone moved north and another system queued for early November—supportive for soil moisture yet a short-term speed bump for soy/corn fieldwork in the South. Argentina turned cooler and drier, adding downside risk for wheat development if dryness lingers.

Fresh U.S. datapoints kept tape action busy in lieu of suspended Crop Progress reporting. Private surveys looked for ~73% corn and ~84% soybean harvest completion by Oct 26, while weekly inspections tallied 1.188 MMT corn, 1.061 MMT soybeans, and 0.259 MMT wheat, reinforcing corn’s steadier export pulse versus lighter soy volumes.

South American fundamentals added momentum. Brazil’s soybean planting reached 36% by Oct 23 (from 24% a week earlier), and Center-South summer corn was 55% seeded. In Argentina, the Rural Society pressed the Milei administration for tax relief to restore farm competitiveness—an input that could shape crush economics, export flows, and planting decisions into the Southern Hemisphere summer.

Vegetable-oil currents sharpened cross-asset signals. Indonesia’s palm oil association lifted its 2025 output outlook to ~56 MMT with exports at 30–31 MMT, while Malaysia flagged zero tariffs on selected palm-oil products in a new U.S. trade deal—both supportive for palm and influential for soyoil/sunoil differentials. Jakarta is also weighing a domestic market obligation to back its B50 biodiesel plan, a lever that could tighten export availability if enacted.

Europe’s agronomic pulse was constructive but uneven. MARS trimmed EU corn and sunflower yields even as conditions for winter-grain establishment stayed broadly favorable in Western/Central Europe. Excess wetness slowed sowing in parts of Bulgaria/Romania, while dryness delayed plantings in Portugal/Spain/eastern Croatia/Hungary—keeping emergence sensitive to timely rains through early November.

Regional supply stories rounded out the picture. Zimbabwe reported a bumper ~578 KMT wheat crop and is now seeking export outlets for surplus, while India suffered late-monsoon downpours that damaged maturing soybean and cotton—risks that could tighten regional oilseed availability and reshape import needs if losses deepen.

Micro-market color stayed mixed. In southern Brazil, despite harvest delays and high field moisture (notably Paraná), domestic wheat prices continued to drift lower under pressure from competitive imports and ample global stocks. Across the Atlantic, registration and open-interest shifts suggested early-week short-covering across wheat/corn/beans, aligning with Tuesday’s firmer closes.