Wheat

Chicago wheat finished Monday little changed, with December ’25 CBOT settling at $5.04¾/bu, up 1 cent on the day. Inter-class spreading left Kansas City HRW fractionally softer and Minneapolis spring wheat steady, while Chicago SRW posted small gains. Export inspections improved to 480,614 MT for the week ending Oct 16, up 7% from the prior week and 78% above the same week last year, led by shipments to Nigeria, Thailand, and South Korea. Weather maps pointed to 1–3 inches of rain across parts of the Southern Plains in the coming week, with lighter totals elsewhere; Algeria was in the market for new soft-wheat tonnage, keeping demand cues active even as global supply remains ample.

Corn

Corn eked out a firmer close as December ’25 CBOT ended at $4.23¼/bu, up ¾ cent, supported by steady cash indications and constructive export flow. Weekly U.S. corn inspections reached 1.317 MMT, up 9% week over week and 32% year over year, with Mexico, Japan, and Spain the top destinations. Brazil’s first-crop corn was pegged 51% planted in the Center-South, a touch ahead of last year, while Brazilian port bids rose 2–3.8% over the past week amid a stronger dollar and brisk shipping pace. Traders also watched headlines that President Trump threatened higher tariffs for Colombia—one of the top four buyers of U.S. corn—adding a layer of policy uncertainty to otherwise firm near-term demand.

Soybeans

Soybeans led the complex, with November ’25 CBOT closing at $10.31¾/bu, up 12¼ cents, buoyed by stronger product values and friendlier weekend trade rhetoric. Soymeal added $4–$4.80 and soyoil gained 18–34 points on the day, while the national average cash bean price climbed to $9.58¼. Even so, the structural backdrop was sobering: China imported zero U.S. soybeans in September for the first time since 2018, as Brazilian arrivals surged to 10.96 MMT (85.2% market share) and Argentina’s shipments rose sharply; Brazilian soybean planting advanced to 24% by Thursday, well ahead of last year.

Global market drivers

Washington–Beijing contacts are back on the calendar. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to stave off a fresh tariff escalation before the November 10 truce deadline, while President Trump signaled a sit-down with President Xi in South Korea. The softer tone steadied risk sentiment but has yet to reopen China for U.S. soybeans.

China’s September soybean ledger underscored the trade shift. Customs data showed no U.S. soy purchases, with Brazil and Argentina filling the gap; year-to-date, Brazil has shipped 63.7 MMT to China and Argentina 2.9 MMT. Analysts warn a February–April supply gap could emerge in China without a deal, given heavy forward coverage from South America.

Brazil remains the pace-setter on supply. Farmers have planted 23.27% of expected soybean area nationwide (well above last year), while first-crop corn is 51% planted in the Center-South. Port prices for corn rose last week as a stronger dollar and active loadings lifted export parity; soybean prices in Brazil’s interior also firmed in step with a rising USD/BRL and solid external demand, even as new U.S. tariffs slated for November pressured Chicago futures intraday.

South American weather tilts mixed. Forecasts call for widespread cooling and a narrowing rainfall belt in Brazil into late October, with cool/wet conditions in Paraguay slowing early corn/soy seedings. The December–February outlook flags slightly warmer/drier risk for first-crop corn and soy in South Brazil, Paraguay, and northern Argentina, alongside increased storm activity that could disrupt mature wheat and harvest in Argentina’s southern Pampas.

Australia’s harvest cushion is thickening. Analysts lifted projections to 35.7 MMT of wheat (third-largest on record) and 15 MMT of barley (record), with canola near 6.5 MMT. Strong Western Australian yields are offsetting southern shortfalls where some crops were cut for hay. The big Australian book adds weight to already comfortable global balances and keeps pressure on Chicago benchmarks.

Europe and the Black Sea face winter risks. A weak polar vortex implies frequent cold outbreaks across much of Europe in Dec–Feb, with winterkill risk elevated in Russia’s Central, Volga, and Urals districts due to low snow cover and persistent dryness; the Baltics and Poland also carry higher-than-normal cold risk, though adequate snow could mitigate damage. Precipitation is expected to improve deep soil moisture across parts of Europe ahead of spring growth.

China’s domestic fundamentals remain resilient but reshape feed demand. The statistics bureau expects another bumper grain harvest despite patchy weather. Meanwhile, Q3 pork output rose 7% y/y as producers accelerated slaughter to reduce overcapacity, pressuring hog prices and potentially tempering near-term feed usage even as overall protein markets stay fluid.

Policy and regional signals rounded out the day’s tone. Canada and China discussed trade disputes on canola and EVs without a breakthrough; Pakistan set a wheat procurement price of 3,500 rupees/ton to build a 6.2 MMT strategic reserve; Kazakhstan’s harvest topped 25.9 MMT, strengthening flows to Iran and Afghanistan; France temporarily banned cattle exports and bullfighting to stem lumpy skin disease; and in corporate moves, Louis Dreyfus and Molinos offered to restructure $1.3B of Vicentin’s debt, advancing consolidation in Argentina’s soy complex.

Overall, Monday’s tape reflected abundant forward supply, selective but steady demand, and headline-driven risk. With Brazil racing ahead, Australia swelling the export pool, Europe bracing for winter, and U.S.–China trade talks in focus, price direction this week hinges on whether diplomacy eases bean flows and whether South American weather risk stays contained.