Wheat

December ’25 CBOT wheat futures closed Thursday at $5.02½/bu, up 3¾ cents on the day, and started Friday with a slight uptick of ¾ cent. The market remained mixed across contracts, with winter wheats showing fractional strength while Minneapolis spring wheat slipped marginally. Traders balanced a drier forecast for the Southern Plains—which aids planting but raises concerns about soil moisture heading into winter—against heavier precipitation prospects in soft red winter areas. FranceAgriMer data reinforced a strong pace of sowing, with soft wheat planting reported at 27% complete, significantly ahead of last year’s pace.

Corn

Corn futures strengthened on Thursday, with December ’25 CBOT closing at $4.21¾/bu, up 5 cents, and extending gains by another 2½ cents early Friday. The board was supported by bear-spread unwinding and steadier cash market signals. National average cash corn prices lifted to $3.79¼, while crop insurance harvest price averages now stand at $4.18, below the February reference but higher than last year’s fall figure. Open interest shifts highlighted strong speculative positioning, while harvest progress continued across much of the Western Corn Belt, with wetter weather expected to slow activity in the east. Ethanol figures also added support, with weekly U.S. production nudging higher to 1.074 million barrels per day and stocks drawing down modestly.

Soybeans

November ’25 CBOT soybeans closed Thursday at $10.10¾/bu, up 4¼ cents, and gained a further 4 cents in early Friday trade. Meal strength and a steady crush outlook provided underpinnings, alongside modest gains in soyoil. The national average cash bean price rose to $9.36, and meal futures firmed between 50 cents and $1.00. Traders continued to watch chatter about China delaying purchases of Brazilian soybeans due to high premiums, which may push Beijing to tap into state reserves as U.S. beans remain sidelined by ongoing trade tensions. Open interest rose by more than 6,000 contracts on Thursday, signaling firm market interest ahead of key trade discussions in coming weeks.

Global Market Drivers

The political backdrop remained volatile, with President Trump remarking early Friday that “we’ll be fine with China” ahead of a leaders’ meeting in coming weeks. His optimism came despite Beijing’s ongoing pause on U.S. soybean purchases, which has already forced China to lean heavily on Brazil and Argentina. If Chinese buyers continue to resist U.S. beans, analysts suggest that state reserves may have to be tapped to cover December–January demand.

U.S. supply-side fundamentals remain supportive. NOPA’s September crush came in at record levels earlier in the week, underlining the strength of domestic processing margins. Soyoil stocks slipped slightly on a month-over-month basis but remained well above last year, while soybean meal strength provided a boost to the oilseed complex. Ethanol figures from the EIA reinforced corn demand, showing steady weekly production and a modest draw in inventories, while export flows—though obscured by the ongoing USDA report blackout—were cushioned by confirmed sales to South Korea and Taiwan.

South America continues to set the global tone, with Brazil pushing ahead on both soybean planting and corn seeding. Early moisture conditions are healthier than last year, and projections for 2025/26 remain historically large, with soybeans pegged at nearly 178 MMT and corn at 138 MMT. Argentina also remains a focal point: while corn planting advanced to nearly 30% complete, forecasters warned that a cold snap could threaten the country’s wheat crop during critical stages, potentially denting yields in what was expected to be the second-largest harvest on record.

In Australia, optimism for a record-breaking crop in Western Australia has gained ground, with estimates pointing toward a harvest of 25.5 MMT across wheat, barley, canola, and other grains. Shifts away from livestock toward cropping and favorable weather patterns have bolstered output, but global oversupply risks are weighing on prices. The broader outlook keeps Australia firmly positioned as a major exporter to Asia, though competition with the Black Sea and EU remains intense.

Ukraine’s export data underscored its struggles, with shipments since the start of the marketing season down 37% year-on-year. Wheat exports have slipped 21%, while corn exports plummeted 68%, raising concerns about the country’s ability to maintain its traditional role as a key Black Sea supplier. These figures contrast sharply with Russia, which remains active in Asia, having resumed wheat shipments to Indonesia under extended accreditation.

Europe showed a more balanced outlook. FranceAgriMer lifted wheat and corn export expectations, supported by a rapid corn harvest and improved sowing progress for winter cereals. Stocks for wheat, barley, and corn were trimmed, underscoring tighter balances and improving the EU’s competitiveness in upcoming tenders. Still, sluggish wheat outflows so far this season highlight persistent competition from Russia and other origins.

Policy and trade diplomacy remained in focus. Canada’s leadership continued talks with Beijing on tariffs and agricultural trade, with canola at the center of discussions. Meanwhile, the U.S. sought to broaden soybean markets by initiating talks with South American nations about crushing partnerships, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese demand. These moves reflect a shifting global trade map for oilseeds and derived products.

Weather remained a crucial backdrop across regions. North American harvest progress faced intermittent disruptions from rainfall in the Midwest and Plains but benefited from broader warmth that delayed frost risks. In South America, Brazil’s wet season rains are gradually filling in, aiding soybean establishment, while Argentina’s high soil moisture levels provide a strong base for early planting despite periodic dryness. Australia’s wetter forecast into late October and persistent rainfall in Southeast Asia favor palm oil development, reinforcing the complex web of weather-driven influences shaping the grain and oilseed balance.